Politics Prediction Markets
Politics markets are among Polymarket's deepest — US elections (president, Congress), Israel, UK, Germany, France and Brazil. Also government crises, no-confidence votes, impeachments and cabinet appointments.
Polls are one input among many — prediction markets aggregate polling, voter knowledge, social data and expert forecasts into a single price. Often more accurate than any single poll.
50 active markets
Will Trump visit China by...?
May 31
Yes 99¢No 1¢
June 30
Yes 99¢No 1¢
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Kevin WarshYes 99¢No 1¢
Judy SheltonYes 1¢No 99¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 31
Yes 63¢No 37¢
June 30
Yes 35¢No 65¢
Elon Musk # tweets May 8 - May 15, 2026?
100-119
Yes 39¢No 61¢
120-139
Yes 30¢No 70¢
Starmer out by...?
December 31
Yes 67¢No 33¢
June 30
Yes 35¢No 65¢
Fed Decision in June?
No change
Yes 98¢No 2¢
25 bps decrease
Yes 1¢No 99¢
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceYes 19¢No 81¢
Gavin NewsomYes 17¢No 83¢
Elon Musk # tweets May 12 - May 19, 2026?
120-139
Yes 20¢No 80¢
140-159
Yes 19¢No 81¢
Will Trump visit China on...?
May 13
Yes 99¢No 1¢
May 15
Yes 1¢No 99¢
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomYes 24¢No 76¢
Kamala HarrisYes 9¢No 91¢
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceYes 37¢No 63¢
Marco RubioYes 25¢No 75¢
Epstein suicide note released by...?
May 81%
May 3112%
Elon Musk # tweets May 11 - May 13, 2026?
40-64
Yes 94¢No 6¢
65-89
Yes 6¢No 94¢
Next French Presidential Election
Jordan BardellaYes 24¢No 76¢
Édouard PhilippeYes 20¢No 80¢
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Chong Won-ohYes 89¢No 11¢
Oh Se-hoonYes 11¢No 89¢
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio BolsonaroYes 43¢No 57¢
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaYes 39¢No 61¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31
Yes 15¢No 85¢
September 30
Yes 11¢No 89¢
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
No Next PM in 2026
Yes 36¢No 64¢
Andy BurnhamYes 24¢No 76¢
Iran closes its airspace by...?
June 30
Yes 47¢No 53¢
May 31
Yes 38¢No 62¢
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
Fed Rate CutYes 1¢No 99¢
US Confirms Aliens ExistYes 1¢No 99¢
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraYes 55¢No 45¢
Tom SteyerYes 25¢No 75¢
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
June 30
Yes 52¢No 48¢
May 31
Yes 23¢No 77¢
Elon Musk # tweets May 15 - May 22, 2026?
120-139
Yes 18¢No 82¢
140-159
Yes 16¢No 84¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
June 30
Yes 60¢No 40¢
May 31
Yes 24¢No 76¢
Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?
520-539
Yes 8¢No 92¢
560-579
Yes 8¢No 92¢
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Keiko FujimoriYes 62¢No 38¢
Roberto Sánchez PalominoYes 35¢No 65¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
June 30
Yes 99¢No 1¢
May 31
Yes 99¢No 1¢
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic PartyYes 80¢No 20¢
Republican PartyYes 22¢No 78¢
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
December 31, 202621%
June 30, 20266%
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
Yes 64¢No 36¢
Reza Pahlavi
Yes 8¢No 92¢
Colombia Presidential Election
Abelardo de la EspriellaYes 46¢No 54¢
Iván Cepeda CastroYes 40¢No 60¢
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Petro - Colombia President
Yes 52¢No 48¢
Starmer - UK PM
Yes 28¢No 72¢
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?
Oil Sanction ReliefYes 15¢No 85¢
Unfreeze Iranian AssetsYes 14¢No 86¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31
Yes 27¢No 73¢
June 30
Yes 13¢No 87¢
Fed Decision in July?
No change
Yes 91¢No 9¢
25 bps decrease
Yes 5¢No 95¢
Who will attend Trump's Xi summit?
Any CEO of a publicly-listed US company
Yes 99¢No 1¢
Marco Rubio
Yes 99¢No 1¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31
Yes 45¢No 55¢
June 30
Yes 18¢No 82¢
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
Yes 63¢No 37¢
Delcy Rodríguez
Yes 24¢No 76¢
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yes 41¢No 59¢
Naftali Bennett
Yes 35¢No 65¢
What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?
Iran
Yes 78¢No 22¢
Tariff
Yes 75¢No 25¢
Politics Markets FAQ
Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?
Often — yes. They aggregate diverse information (polls, inside knowledge, analysis) into one price. Not perfect though; treat them as a key tool, not the only one.
Which elections are covered on Polymarket?
US presidential and congressional, European and Asian governments, key local races, party primaries. Every major democracy gets meaningful coverage.
How do I trade elections smartly?
Track standard polling but avoid thin-liquidity markets. Hedging around debates or major interviews can reduce risk on concentrated positions.
