Politics Prediction Markets
Politics markets are among Polymarket's deepest - US elections (president, Congress), Israel, UK, Germany, France and Brazil. Also government crises, no-confidence votes, impeachments and cabinet appointments.
Polls are one input among many - prediction markets aggregate polling, voter knowledge, social data and expert forecasts into a single price. Often more accurate than any single poll.
Democratic Party95%YesNo
Republican Party6%YesNo
JD Vance18%YesNo
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%YesNo
Democratic Party78%YesNoRepublican Party24%YesNo
James Talarico (D)75%YesNo
Ken Paxton (R)26%YesNo
Abdul El-Sayed (D)81%YesNo
Mike Rogers (R)20%YesNo
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%YesNo
Gavin Newsom15%YesNo
Marine Le Pen40%YesNo
David Lisnard16%YesNo
Gadi Eizenkot43%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu35%YesNo
Greg Abbott (R)60%YesNo
Gina Hinojosa (D) 40%YesNo
J.D. Vance36%YesNo
Marco Rubio19%YesNo
Troy Jackson (D)74%YesNo
Susan Collins (R)28%YesNo
Byron Donalds (R) 65%YesNo
David Jolly (D)36%YesNo
Peggy Flanagan (D)92%YesNo
Michele Tafoya (R)9%YesNo
Amy Acton (D)84%YesNo
Vivek Ramaswamy (R)17%YesNo
Xavier Becerra98%YesNo
Steve Hilton2%YesNo
Sherrod Brown (D)72%YesNo
Jon Husted (R)29%YesNo
Mary Peltola72%YesNo
Sen. Dan Sullivan29%YesNo
Adam Hamilton (D)62%YesNo
Roger Marshall (R)38%YesNo
Pete Ricketts (R)70%YesNo
Independent31%YesNo
Josh Turek (D)53%YesNo
Ashley Hinson (R)49%YesNo
Darline Graham Nordone (R)70%YesNo
Annie Andrews (D)31%YesNo
Jocelyn Benson (D)95%YesNo
John James (R)5%YesNo
Katie Hobbs (D)94%YesNo
Andy Biggs (R)7%YesNo
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)87%YesNo
Scott Colom (D)15%YesNo
Aaron Ford (D)76%YesNo
Joe Lombardo (R)26%YesNo
Jon Ossoff (D) 97%YesNo
Mike Collins (R)3%YesNo
Brad Knott (R)66%YesNo
Paul Barringer (D)34%YesNo
Ashley Moody (R)87%YesNo
Angie Nixon (D)14%YesNoGadi Eizenkot92%YesNoBenjamin Netanyahu8%YesNo
Ty Masterson (R)66%YesNo
Cindy Holscher (D)36%YesNo
Kurt Alme (R) 92%YesNo
Independent9%YesNo
Chris Pappas (D)95%YesNo
John E. Sununu (R)6%YesNo
Karen Bass59%YesNo
Nithya Raman42%YesNo
Talarico 3-6%27%YesNoTalarico 0-3%24%YesNoPolitics Markets FAQ
Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?
Often - yes. They aggregate diverse information (polls, inside knowledge, analysis) into one price. Not perfect though; treat them as a key tool, not the only one.
Which elections are covered on Polymarket?
US presidential and congressional, European and Asian governments, key local races, party primaries. Every major democracy gets meaningful coverage.
How do I trade elections smartly?
Track standard polling but avoid thin-liquidity markets. Hedging around debates or major interviews can reduce risk on concentrated positions.
