Politics Prediction Markets
Politics markets are among Polymarket's deepest — US elections (president, Congress), Israel, UK, Germany, France and Brazil. Also government crises, no-confidence votes, impeachments and cabinet appointments.
Polls are one input among many — prediction markets aggregate polling, voter knowledge, social data and expert forecasts into a single price. Often more accurate than any single poll.
No change85%YesNo25 bps increase14%YesNo
JD Vance20%YesNo
Marco Rubio14%YesNo
Gavin Newsom20%YesNo
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%YesNo
180-19937%YesNo
160-17925%YesNo
65-8995%YesNo
90-1145%YesNo
J.D. Vance42%YesNoMarco Rubio28%YesNo
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%YesNo
Flávio Bolsonaro26%YesNo
Mojtaba Khamenei74%YesNo
No Head of State7%YesNo
180-19919%YesNo
200-21916%YesNo
August 3134%YesNo
August 1529%YesNo
August 1515%YesNo
July 319%YesNo
Marine Le Pen31%YesNo
Édouard Philippe27%YesNo
25 bps increase49%YesNoNo change44%YesNo
Gadi Eizenkot51%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu38%YesNo
June 30, 202738%YesNo
December 3127%YesNo
December 3133%YesNo
September 3023%YesNo
140-15917%YesNo
180-19917%YesNo
Abdul El-Sayed80%YesNo
Haley Stevens20%YesNo
Nicolás Maduro80%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez11%YesNo
August 3147%YesNo
August 1534%YesNo
August 3143%YesNo
July 318%YesNo
No Meeting by September 3025%YesNo
Pakistan23%YesNo
United Russia (ER)57%YesNo
New People (NL)37%YesNo
December 316%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
December 3142%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
June 30, 202717%YesNo
December 31, 20269%YesNo
Nigel Farage96%YesNo
Count Binface4%YesNo
Darline Graham Nordone70%YesNo
Ralph Norman17%YesNo
No meeting before 202791%YesNo
Switzerland3%YesNo
Ursula von der Leyen64%YesNo
Elon Musk44%YesNo
Save America Act89%YesNo
Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times87%YesNo
September 3031%YesNoJuly 318%YesNo
December 3114%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
December 319%YesNoApril 307%YesNo
July 314%YesNo
February 281%YesNo
Yulia Navalnaya11%YesNo
UNRWA9%YesNo40-6449%YesNo
<4025%YesNo
Democratic Party86%YesNo
Republican Party15%YesNo800-83919%YesNo
720-75919%YesNo
August 3123%YesNo
July 317%YesNo
June 302%
July 3114%
August 3179%YesNo
July 3143%YesNo
No Return to Normal Traffic in 202647%YesNoDecember17%YesNo
Bev Craig98%YesNo
Geraldine Coggins1%YesNoFarage 60–70%24%YesNo
Farage 70–80%22%YesNo
December 31, 202690%YesNo
September 30, 202674%YesNo
July 315%
December 3131%
Magdalena Andersson78%YesNo
Ulf Kristersson17%YesNo
Likud57%YesNo
Yashar43%YesNoCount Binface59%YesNo
John Stevens14%YesNo
Another Pandemic51%YesNo
New Rihanna Album51%YesNo
Byron Donalds96%YesNo
James Fishback3%YesNo
Giorgia Meloni86%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu46%YesNo
Pete Buttigieg14%YesNo
Gavin Newsom13%YesNoPete Buttigieg14%YesNoGavin Newsom13%YesNo
July 2292%YesNo
July 3190%YesNo
Labour Party65%YesNo
National Party36%YesNo
December 318%YesNo
August 312%YesNo
Javier Milei48%YesNo
Axel Kicillof42%YesNo
Inflation 20+ times88%YesNo
Balance Sheet84%YesNo
Democrats Sweep44%YesNo
R Senate, D House41%YesNo
Donald Brodie65%YesNoMatt Gaetz56%YesNo
December 3171%YesNo
September 3065%YesNo
Dilution of Iran's Uranium35%YesNo
Iran Reconstruction Funding31%YesNo
Republican Party92%YesNo
Democratic Party7%YesNo
Linke39%YesNo
CDU29%YesNo
Ken Paxton (R)57%YesNoJames Talarico (D)44%YesNo
December 3145%YesNo
September 3014%YesNoFlávio Bolsonaro80%YesNo
Renan Santos12%YesNo
Democrat68%YesNoRepublican32%YesNo
July 316%
August 3117%
Catherine West2%YesNo
James Murray2%YesNo
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa2%YesNo
Mohammed bin Salman2%YesNo
Warren Petersen99%YesNo
Rodney Glassman1%YesNo
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202612%
Trump Account96%YesNo
Transgender86%YesNo
120-13937%YesNo
140-15928%YesNo
Hakainde Hichilema90%YesNo
Brian Mundubile11%YesNo
40-5964%YesNo
20-3930%YesNo
Marat Kambolov95%YesNo
Oleg Kozaev2%YesNo
December 3136%YesNo
October 3118%YesNo
Ty Masterson83%YesNo
Philip Sarnecki15%YesNo
Republican Party56%YesNoDemocratic Party44%YesNo
December 3152%YesNo
September 3034%YesNo
Renan Santos64%YesNo
Ronaldo Caiado17%YesNoFeely 15–20%47%YesNo
Feely 10–15%41%YesNo
December 3119%
June 301%
Haley Stevens51%YesNo
Abdul El-Sayed43%YesNo
December 3131%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
July 319%YesNo
April 301%YesNo
Republican Party89%YesNo
Democratic Party11%YesNo
PQ73%YesNo
CAQ15%YesNo
Democratic Party65%YesNo
Republican Party35%YesNo
Cook Islands Party89%YesNo
Democratic Party7%YesNo
Fishback <10%71%YesNo
Fishback 15–20%11%YesNo
No meeting by December 3169%YesNo
China12%YesNo
Cori Bush54%YesNo
Wesley Bell47%YesNo
Somaliland22%YesNo
Lebanon13%YesNo
Republican83%YesNoDemocrat18%YesNo
Francesca Hong76%YesNo
Mandela Barnes13%YesNo
Binface <10%40%YesNo
Binface 10–20%31%YesNo
Thorsten Frei83%YesNo
Carsten Linnemann9%YesNo
December 3176%YesNo
August 3158%YesNo
GlobalFoundries81%YesNo
D-Wave71%YesNo
Giorgia Meloni53%YesNo
Elly Schlein18%YesNo
Republican71%YesNo
Independent30%YesNo
Mark Sutcliffe56%YesNo
Alex Lawson23%YesNo
July 311%
September 3014%
Lula da Silva 5-10%36%YesNoLula da Silva 10-15%30%YesNo
Kimberly Yee97%YesNo
Tom Horne2%YesNo
December 3135%YesNo
August 3119%YesNo
Amir Ohana24%YesNoNo Primary by Knesset Election22%YesNo
Republican Party94%YesNo
Democratic Party6%YesNo
Pete Fry29%YesNo
Ken Sim24%YesNo120-13930%YesNo
200+28%YesNo
5541%YesNo
5038%YesNo
December 3176%YesNoJuly 319%YesNo
AS37%YesNo
LPV34%YesNo
3.75%31%YesNo
4.0%27%YesNo
Republican Party78%YesNo
Democratic Party21%YesNo
December 3114%YesNo
October 317%YesNo
Politics Markets FAQ
Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?
Often — yes. They aggregate diverse information (polls, inside knowledge, analysis) into one price. Not perfect though; treat them as a key tool, not the only one.
Which elections are covered on Polymarket?
US presidential and congressional, European and Asian governments, key local races, party primaries. Every major democracy gets meaningful coverage.
How do I trade elections smartly?
Track standard polling but avoid thin-liquidity markets. Hedging around debates or major interviews can reduce risk on concentrated positions.
