This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Ken Paxton (R)
$337.6K Volume
57%
James Talarico (D)
$273.5K Volume
44%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Texas Senate Election Winner?
It's a genuine race: Ken Paxton (R) edges the field at 57%, barely ahead of James Talarico (D) at 44%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for Texas Senate Election Winner?
Traders give Ken Paxton (R) a 57% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the Texas Senate Election Winner market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026 (104 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Texas Senate Election Winner?
Total turnover stands at $611K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Texas Senate Election Winner on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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