Texas Senate · Texas Midterm

Texas Senate Election Winner

$14.7M Volume
04/11/2026 04:59
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James Talarico (D)
$5.9M Volume
73%
Ken Paxton (R)
$8.8M Volume
27%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Texas Senate Election Winner?
The current front-runner is James Talarico (D) at 73%, ahead of Ken Paxton (R) at 27%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.
What do traders predict for Texas Senate Election Winner?
Traders currently imply a 73% chance for James Talarico (D). Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the Texas Senate Election Winner market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 4 Nov 2026 (1 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on Texas Senate Election Winner?
Total traded volume on this market is $14.7M, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade Texas Senate Election Winner on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.

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