This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
The market prices Yes at only 12%, with No at 89%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 12%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2027 (527 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Total turnover stands at $68.7K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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