🏛 Prediction Markets: Politics
50 active marketsPolitical prediction markets — elections, government policy and international relations
Will Trump visit China by...?
May 31
Yes 99¢No 1¢
June 30
Yes 99¢No 1¢
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Kevin WarshYes 99¢No 1¢
Judy SheltonYes 1¢No 99¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 31
Yes 63¢No 37¢
June 30
Yes 35¢No 65¢
Elon Musk # tweets May 8 - May 15, 2026?
100-119
Yes 39¢No 61¢
120-139
Yes 30¢No 70¢
Starmer out by...?
December 31
Yes 67¢No 33¢
June 30
Yes 35¢No 65¢
Fed Decision in June?
No change
Yes 98¢No 2¢
25 bps decrease
Yes 1¢No 99¢
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceYes 19¢No 81¢
Gavin NewsomYes 17¢No 83¢
Elon Musk # tweets May 12 - May 19, 2026?
120-139
Yes 20¢No 80¢
140-159
Yes 19¢No 81¢
Will Trump visit China on...?
May 13
Yes 99¢No 1¢
May 15
Yes 1¢No 99¢
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomYes 24¢No 76¢
Kamala HarrisYes 9¢No 91¢
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceYes 37¢No 63¢
Marco RubioYes 25¢No 75¢
Epstein suicide note released by...?
May 81%
May 3112%
Elon Musk # tweets May 11 - May 13, 2026?
40-64
Yes 94¢No 6¢
65-89
Yes 6¢No 94¢
Next French Presidential Election
Jordan BardellaYes 24¢No 76¢
Édouard PhilippeYes 20¢No 80¢
2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Chong Won-ohYes 89¢No 11¢
Oh Se-hoonYes 11¢No 89¢
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio BolsonaroYes 43¢No 57¢
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaYes 39¢No 61¢
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31
Yes 15¢No 85¢
September 30
Yes 11¢No 89¢
Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?
No Next PM in 2026
Yes 36¢No 64¢
Andy BurnhamYes 24¢No 76¢
Iran closes its airspace by...?
June 30
Yes 47¢No 53¢
May 31
Yes 38¢No 62¢
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
Fed Rate CutYes 1¢No 99¢
US Confirms Aliens ExistYes 1¢No 99¢
California Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraYes 55¢No 45¢
Tom SteyerYes 25¢No 75¢
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
June 30
Yes 52¢No 48¢
May 31
Yes 23¢No 77¢
Elon Musk # tweets May 15 - May 22, 2026?
120-139
Yes 18¢No 82¢
140-159
Yes 16¢No 84¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
June 30
Yes 60¢No 40¢
May 31
Yes 24¢No 76¢
Elon Musk musk # tweets in May 2026?
520-539
Yes 8¢No 92¢
560-579
Yes 8¢No 92¢
Peru Presidential Election Winner
Keiko FujimoriYes 62¢No 38¢
Roberto Sánchez PalominoYes 35¢No 65¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?
June 30
Yes 99¢No 1¢
May 31
Yes 99¢No 1¢
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic PartyYes 80¢No 20¢
Republican PartyYes 22¢No 78¢
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?
December 31, 202621%
June 30, 20266%
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
Yes 64¢No 36¢
Reza Pahlavi
Yes 8¢No 92¢
Colombia Presidential Election
Abelardo de la EspriellaYes 46¢No 54¢
Iván Cepeda CastroYes 40¢No 60¢
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Petro - Colombia President
Yes 52¢No 48¢
Starmer - UK PM
Yes 28¢No 72¢
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?
Oil Sanction ReliefYes 15¢No 85¢
Unfreeze Iranian AssetsYes 14¢No 86¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31
Yes 27¢No 73¢
June 30
Yes 13¢No 87¢
Fed Decision in July?
No change
Yes 91¢No 9¢
25 bps decrease
Yes 5¢No 95¢
Who will attend Trump's Xi summit?
Any CEO of a publicly-listed US company
Yes 99¢No 1¢
Marco Rubio
Yes 99¢No 1¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31
Yes 45¢No 55¢
June 30
Yes 18¢No 82¢
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
Yes 63¢No 37¢
Delcy Rodríguez
Yes 24¢No 76¢
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yes 41¢No 59¢
Naftali Bennett
Yes 35¢No 65¢
What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?
Iran
Yes 78¢No 22¢
Tariff
Yes 75¢No 25¢
