Mercati di previsione politici

I mercati politici sono tra i più profondi di Polymarket: elezioni USA (presidente, Congresso), Israele, Regno Unito, Germania, Francia e Brasile. Anche crisi di governo, voti di sfiducia, impeachment e nomine di gabinetto.

I sondaggi sono solo uno dei tanti input: i mercati di previsione aggregano sondaggi, conoscenza degli elettori, dati social e previsioni degli esperti in un unico prezzo. Spesso più accurato di qualsiasi singolo sondaggio.

150 mercati attivi
No changeNo change68%No
25 bps increase25 bps increase32%No
JD VanceJD Vance23%No
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%No
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez23%No
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%No
320-33939%No
340-35925%No
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%No
Marco RubioMarco Rubio20%No
December 3172%No
October 3149%No
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%No
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro33%No
August 22August 2299%No
August 25August 2599%No
40-6483%No
65-8912%No
200-21919%No
220-23919%No
December 314%No
September 301%No
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen32%No
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe25%No
June 30, 202714%No
December 31, 20268%No
March 31, 202764%No
December 31, 202651%No
August 311%
August 151%
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)71%No
New People (NL)New People (NL)23%No
Elon MuskElon Musk16%No
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy3%No
Democrats Sweep48%No
R Senate, D House39%No
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson93%No
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson7%No
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot59%No
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu27%No
No Meeting by September 3075%No
Svizzera10%No
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%No
Republican PartyRepublican Party12%No
200-21914%No
220-23914%No
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes95%No
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas4%No
Mojtaba Khamenei82%No
No Head of State4%No
AuylAuyl97%No
AdiletAdilet5%No
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3152%No
ChinaChina43%No
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%No
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)1%No
December 3118%No
October 3111%No
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro86%No
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva6%No
June 30, 202755%No
March 31, 202741%No
June 30, 202725%No
December 3116%No
40-6446%No
65-8932%No
880-91925%No
920-95923%No
Scott JenningsScott Jennings31%No
Anna KellyAnna Kelly15%No
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)51%No
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)49%No
September 3010%No
August 313%No
December 31December 3154%No
October 31October 3119%No
PQPQ70%No
PLQPLQ17%No
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party93%No
Republican PartyRepublican Party8%No
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding17%No
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)11%No
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%No
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%No
Mary PeltolaMary Peltola62%No
Dan SullivanDan Sullivan39%No
LinkeLinke57%No
CDUCDU26%No
Ruth González SilvaRuth González Silva48%No
Gerardo Sánchez ZumayaGerardo Sánchez Zumaya10%No
Brett Smiley60%No
David Morales39%No
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu69%No
Peter ObiPeter Obi21%No
Nermin NikšićNermin Nikšić13%No
Denis ZvizdićDenis Zvizdić12%No
180-19949%No
200+49%No
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman72%No
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin46%No
Eduardo BragaEduardo Braga72%No
Capitão Alberto NetoCapitão Alberto Neto18%No
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)63%No
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)38%No
December 31, 20264%No
September 30, 20261%No
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya8%No
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy5%No
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone97%No
Ralph NormanRalph Norman2%No
Daniel GobeilDaniel Gobeil72%No
Caroline DubéCaroline Dubé25%No
Dr. Fernando MáximoDr. Fernando Máximo45%No
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina37%No
December 3117%No
August 3111%No
Ricardo Ferraço73%No
Lorenzo Pazolini25%No
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch51%No
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath50%No
August 2495%No
August 2893%No
December 3150%No
November 3050%No
Antonio Astiazarán GutiérrezAntonio Astiazarán Gutiérrez37%No
Lorenia Valles SampedroLorenia Valles Sampedro37%No
200+89%No
180-1998%No
Nicolás Maduro86%No
Delcy Rodríguez10%No
Mara RochaMara Rocha45%No
Marcio BittarMarcio Bittar33%No
Democratic Party95%No
Republican Party5%No
Jongizizwe DlabathiJongizizwe Dlabathi24%No
Khathutshelo RasilingwaneKhathutshelo Rasilingwane5%No
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)81%No
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)20%No
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone77%No
Ralph NormanRalph Norman23%No
Marina SilvaMarina Silva34%No
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite27%No
325–33944%No
340–35422%No
5-7%67%No
7-9%14%No
Mattias OttossonMattias Ottosson63%No
Marie MorellMarie Morell21%No
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf41%No
Jared KushnerJared Kushner39%No
Richard Neal82%No
Jeromie Whalen17%No
Humberto CostaHumberto Costa40%No
Mendonça FilhoMendonça Filho33%No
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202671%No
December9%No
August 2170%
August 2872%
Sergio MeneguelliSergio Meneguelli50%No
Fabiano ContaratoFabiano Contarato30%No
Princess FakuPrincess Faku57%No
Yomelela TyaliYomelela Tyali7%No
Helio BolsonaroHelio Bolsonaro32%No
Chico RodriguesChico Rodrigues29%No
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira38%No
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro31%No
Wellington FagundesWellington Fagundes65%No
Otaviano PivettaOtaviano Pivetta27%No
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party50%No
Republican PartyRepublican Party50%No
Democratic Party95%No
Republican Party5%No
Rosa María Bayardo CabreraRosa María Bayardo Cabrera54%No
Griselda Martínez MartínezGriselda Martínez Martínez10%No
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” ThomasN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas92%No
Jim PriestJim Priest8%No
Marília ArraesMarília Arraes69%No
Humberto CostaHumberto Costa13%No
Albert Aníbal Arenas YabarAlbert Aníbal Arenas Yabar23%No
Eulogio Tapia DezaEulogio Tapia Deza21%No
June 30, 202736%No
December 316%No
Flavio BolsonaroFlavio Bolsonaro97%No
Escritor Augusto CuryEscritor Augusto Cury1%No
December 316%No
September 302%No
Democratic Party95%No
Republican Party5%No
Leila do VôleiLeila do Vôlei52%No
Erika KokayErika Kokay23%No
Paul St-Pierre PlamondonPaul St-Pierre Plamondon70%No
Christine FréchetteChristine Fréchette14%No
Republican Party95%No
Democratic Party5%No
Obafemi HamzatObafemi Hamzat87%No
Naheem BalogunNaheem Balogun5%No
December 3196%No
September 3093%No
Democratic Party95%No
Republican Party5%No
December 3197%No
October 3195%No
80-9978%No
60-7916%No
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%No
SvizzeraSvizzera3%No
Michelle BolsonaroMichelle Bolsonaro64%No
Leila do VôleiLeila do Vôlei29%No
December 3151%No
September 3011%No
Sílvia CristinaSílvia Cristina37%No
Bruno Bolsonaro ScheidBruno Bolsonaro Scheid13%No
Deltan DallagnolDeltan Dallagnol36%No
Alexandre CuriAlexandre Curi29%No
December 3148%No
May 311%No
FufucaFufuca30%No
Roseana SarneyRoseana Sarney26%No
Canceled93%No
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin1%No
Carlos VianaCarlos Viana43%No
Marília CamposMarília Campos40%No
Mike MazzeiMike Mazzei79%No
Gentner DrummondGentner Drummond22%No
Illegal / Illegals75%No
President 50+ times64%No
Stefany ShaheenStefany Shaheen55%No
Maura SullivanMaura Sullivan43%No
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
Miguel Gerardo Cueva CeliMiguel Gerardo Cueva Celi31%No
Jorge Hilton Flores BazánJorge Hilton Flores Bazán16%No
Pablo Gutiérrez LazarusPablo Gutiérrez Lazarus81%No
Eliseo Fernández MontúfarEliseo Fernández Montúfar8%No
Benedita da SilvaBenedita da Silva61%No
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy23%No
Mahmoud Khalil25%No
John Brennan18%No
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party87%No
Republican PartyRepublican Party14%No
Oil / Gas / Gasoline99%No
AI / Artificial Intelligence99%No
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni45%No
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro35%No
Crime92%No
Communist / Communism91%No
Styvenson ValentimStyvenson Valentim63%No
Zenaide MaiaZenaide Maia17%No
Ciro NogueiraCiro Nogueira48%No
Marcelo CastroMarcelo Castro35%No
Roy Cooper (D)Roy Cooper (D)92%No
Michael Whatley (R)Michael Whatley (R)9%No
Gustavo GayerGustavo Gayer50%No
Gracinha CaiadoGracinha Caiado27%No
Arthur LiraArthur Lira46%No
RenanRenan41%No

FAQ sui mercati politici

I mercati di previsione sono più accurati dei sondaggi?

Spesso sì. Aggregano informazioni diverse (sondaggi, conoscenza interna, analisi) in un unico prezzo. Non sono però perfetti: trattali come uno strumento chiave, non l'unico.

Quali elezioni sono coperte su Polymarket?

Presidenziali e congressuali USA, governi europei e asiatici, corse locali chiave, primarie di partito. Ogni grande democrazia riceve una copertura significativa.

Come faccio trading sulle elezioni in modo intelligente?

Segui i sondaggi standard ma evita i mercati con poca liquidità. La copertura attorno ai dibattiti o alle interviste importanti può ridurre il rischio sulle posizioni concentrate.

Inizia gratis l'allenamento su Polymarket
Fai trading sui mercati di previsione con denaro virtuale. Prezzi reali, zero rischi. Competi in classifica.
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