Elections Prediction Markets
Election markets are Polymarket's core — US presidential, party primaries, congressional races, and any major democracy's vote. The 2024 US election markets booked billions in volume.
Pricing blends polls, party finance data, economic indicators and reporting — all distilled into one price. Rich trading ground for both analysts and opinion-driven investors.
JD Vance20%YesNo
Marco Rubio14%YesNo
Gavin Newsom20%YesNo
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%YesNo
July 2099%YesNo
July 2294%YesNo
J.D. Vance42%YesNoMarco Rubio28%YesNo
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%YesNo
Flávio Bolsonaro26%YesNo
Marine Le Pen31%YesNo
Édouard Philippe27%YesNo
Gadi Eizenkot51%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu38%YesNo
Abdul El-Sayed80%YesNo
Haley Stevens20%YesNo
United Russia (ER)57%YesNo
New People (NL)37%YesNo
December 3142%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
Nigel Farage96%YesNo
Count Binface4%YesNo
Troy Jackson99%YesNo
Jared Golden1%YesNo
Darline Graham Nordone70%YesNo
Ralph Norman17%YesNo
Democratic Party86%YesNo
Republican Party15%YesNo
Bev Craig98%YesNo
Geraldine Coggins1%YesNoFarage 60–70%24%YesNo
Farage 70–80%22%YesNo
Magdalena Andersson78%YesNo
Ulf Kristersson17%YesNo
Likud57%YesNo
Yashar43%YesNoCount Binface59%YesNo
John Stevens14%YesNo
Byron Donalds96%YesNo
James Fishback3%YesNo
Pete Buttigieg14%YesNo
Gavin Newsom13%YesNoPete Buttigieg14%YesNoGavin Newsom13%YesNo
Labour Party65%YesNo
National Party36%YesNo
Javier Milei48%YesNo
Axel Kicillof42%YesNo
Democrats Sweep44%YesNo
R Senate, D House41%YesNo
December 3171%YesNo
September 3065%YesNo
Republican Party92%YesNo
Democratic Party7%YesNo
Linke39%YesNo
CDU29%YesNo
Ken Paxton (R)57%YesNoJames Talarico (D)44%YesNoFlávio Bolsonaro80%YesNo
Renan Santos12%YesNo
Democrat68%YesNoRepublican32%YesNo
Warren Petersen99%YesNo
Rodney Glassman1%YesNo
Hakainde Hichilema90%YesNo
Brian Mundubile11%YesNo
Marat Kambolov95%YesNo
Oleg Kozaev2%YesNo
Ty Masterson83%YesNo
Philip Sarnecki15%YesNo
Republican Party56%YesNoDemocratic Party44%YesNoRenan Santos64%YesNo
Ronaldo Caiado17%YesNoFeely 15–20%47%YesNo
Feely 10–15%41%YesNo
Haley Stevens51%YesNo
Abdul El-Sayed43%YesNo
Republican Party89%YesNo
Democratic Party11%YesNo
PQ73%YesNo
CAQ15%YesNo
Democratic Party65%YesNo
Republican Party35%YesNo
Cook Islands Party89%YesNo
Democratic Party7%YesNo
Fishback <10%71%YesNo
Fishback 15–20%11%YesNo
Cori Bush54%YesNo
Wesley Bell47%YesNo
Republican83%YesNoDemocrat18%YesNo
Francesca Hong76%YesNo
Mandela Barnes13%YesNo
Binface <10%40%YesNo
Binface 10–20%31%YesNo
Thorsten Frei83%YesNo
Carsten Linnemann9%YesNo
Giorgia Meloni53%YesNo
Elly Schlein18%YesNo
Republican71%YesNo
Independent30%YesNo
Mark Sutcliffe56%YesNo
Alex Lawson23%YesNo
July 311%
September 3014%
Lula da Silva 5-10%36%YesNoLula da Silva 10-15%30%YesNoKimberly Yee97%YesNo
Tom Horne2%YesNo
Amir Ohana24%YesNoNo Primary by Knesset Election22%YesNo
Republican Party94%YesNo
Democratic Party6%YesNo
Pete Fry29%YesNo
Ken Sim24%YesNo
5541%YesNo
5038%YesNo
AS37%YesNo
LPV34%YesNo
Republican Party78%YesNo
Democratic Party21%YesNo
Tom Begich35%YesNo
Bernadette Wilson30%YesNoMarine Le Pen86%YesNoÉdouard Philippe42%YesNo
PH62%YesNo
BN35%YesNo
Democratic Party87%YesNo
Republican Party14%YesNo
Republican Party85%YesNo
Democratic Party15%YesNo
Democratic Party78%YesNoRepublican Party18%YesNo
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon70%YesNo
Christine Fréchette16%YesNo
Republican Party85%YesNo
Democratic Party13%YesNo
Democratic Party94%YesNo
Republican Party6%YesNo
Milakulo Tukumuli96%YesNo
Sonia Backès1%YesNo
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)96%YesNo
Sweden Democrats (SD)3%YesNo
Jerri Green94%YesNo
Carnita Atwater4%YesNo
Lisa Demuth52%YesNo
Mike Lindell42%YesNo
Democratic Party94%YesNo
Republican Party6%YesNo
Vicente Ada59%YesNo
Frank F. Blas Jr.42%YesNo
Democrat56%YesNoRepublican44%YesNo
Republican Party93%YesNo
Democratic Party7%YesNo
Bakir Izetbegović52%YesNo
Denis Bećirović49%YesNo
Republican Party94%YesNo
Democratic Party3%YesNo
Elections Markets FAQ
Why are election markets accurate?
They require 'skin in the game' — people put money on their views, filtering out low-quality noise. The larger the volume, the more reliable the price.
Which election markets are live now?
US 2028, Israel (by date), UK and EU local elections, plus party primaries. Follow our page for updates.
How do I price risk in election markets?
Check liquidity (order-book depth), historical volatility, and decision date. Thin-liquidity markets are prone to inefficient pricing.
