Elections Prediction Markets

Election markets are Polymarket's core — US presidential, party primaries, congressional races, and any major democracy's vote. The 2024 US election markets booked billions in volume.

Pricing blends polls, party finance data, economic indicators and reporting — all distilled into one price. Rich trading ground for both analysts and opinion-driven investors.

50 active markets

Will Trump visit China by...?

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Eurovision Winner 2026

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Will Trump visit China on...?

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

chance

Yes 9¢ No 91¢

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Next French Presidential Election

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

US military action against Cuba by...?

December 31

Yes 38¢No 62¢

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro

Yes 43¢No 57¢

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Yes 39¢No 61¢

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

chance

Yes 1¢ No 99¢

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?

Iran closes its airspace by...?

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

16%

chance

Yes 16¢ No 84¢

What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?

Fed Rate Cut

Yes 1¢No 99¢

US Confirms Aliens Exist

Yes 1¢No 99¢

California Governor Election Winner

MLB World Series Champion 2026

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?

May 31

Yes 8¢No 92¢

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

chance

Yes 5¢ No 95¢

Peru Presidential Election Winner

Keiko Fujimori

Yes 62¢No 38¢

Roberto Sánchez Palomino

Yes 35¢No 65¢

2026 PGA Championship Winner

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

43%

chance

Yes 43¢ No 57¢

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

December 31, 202621%

June 30, 20266%

Eurovision 2026: Top 10

SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lowest Strikes)

Iran leader end of 2026?

Colombia Presidential Election

Abelardo de la Espriella

Yes 46¢No 54¢

Iván Cepeda Castro

Yes 40¢No 60¢

2026 Men's French Open Winner

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Petro - Colombia President

Yes 52¢No 48¢

Starmer - UK PM

Yes 28¢No 72¢

Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Dominik Palan

Yes 99¢No 1¢

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

Oil Sanction Relief

Yes 15¢No 85¢

Unfreeze Iranian Assets

Yes 14¢No 86¢

Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

chance

Yes 2¢ No 98¢

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Bengaluru 2: Joshua Charlton vs Ognjen Milic

Yes 1¢No 99¢

Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov

Yes 80¢No 20¢

Eurovision 2026: Televote Winner

Who will attend Trump's Xi summit?

Any CEO of a publicly-listed US company

Yes 99¢No 1¢

Marco Rubio

Yes 99¢No 1¢

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

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Elections Markets FAQ

Why are election markets accurate?

They require 'skin in the game' — people put money on their views, filtering out low-quality noise. The larger the volume, the more reliable the price.

Which election markets are live now?

US 2028, Israel (by date), UK and EU local elections, plus party primaries. Follow our page for updates.

How do I price risk in election markets?

Check liquidity (order-book depth), historical volatility, and decision date. Thin-liquidity markets are prone to inefficient pricing.

Elections Prediction Markets

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