Masoko ya Utabiri wa Siasa

Masoko ya siasa ni miongoni mwa ya kina zaidi ya Polymarket — uchaguzi wa Marekani (rais, Congress), Israel, Uingereza, Ujerumani, Ufaransa na Brazil. Pia mizozo ya serikali, kura za kutokuwa na imani, kuondolewa madarakani na uteuzi wa baraza.

Kura ni moja ya ingizo kati ya mengi — masoko ya utabiri yanakusanya kura, maarifa ya wapiga kura, data za kijamii na makadirio ya wataalamu katika bei moja. Mara nyingi yana usahihi zaidi kuliko kura yoyote moja.

150 masoko ya kazi
No changeNo change74%NdiyoHapana
25 bps increase25 bps increase25%NdiyoHapana
JD VanceJD Vance20%NdiyoHapana
Marco RubioMarco Rubio14%NdiyoHapana
200-21958%NdiyoHapana
180-19926%NdiyoHapana
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%NdiyoHapana
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro23%NdiyoHapana
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom20%NdiyoHapana
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%NdiyoHapana
Mojtaba Khamenei72%NdiyoHapana
No Head of State6%NdiyoHapana
August 3157%NdiyoHapana
August 1549%NdiyoHapana
25 bps increase25 bps increase52%NdiyoHapana
No changeNo change42%NdiyoHapana
220-23919%NdiyoHapana
240-25917%NdiyoHapana
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance43%NdiyoHapana
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%NdiyoHapana
December 3134%NdiyoHapana
September 3023%NdiyoHapana
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen31%NdiyoHapana
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe27%NdiyoHapana
65-8947%NdiyoHapana
40-6428%NdiyoHapana
August 1519%NdiyoHapana
July 3110%NdiyoHapana
June 30, 202740%NdiyoHapana
December 3128%NdiyoHapana
June 30, 202717%NdiyoHapana
December 31, 20269%NdiyoHapana
August 3147%NdiyoHapana
August 1529%NdiyoHapana
August 3155%NdiyoHapana
July 3130%NdiyoHapana
160-17916%NdiyoHapana
180-19916%NdiyoHapana
August 3133%NdiyoHapana
July 316%NdiyoHapana
LinkeLinke34%NdiyoHapana
CDUCDU27%NdiyoHapana
Gadi Eizenkot49%NdiyoHapana
Benjamin Netanyahu38%NdiyoHapana
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)57%NdiyoHapana
New People (NL)New People (NL)37%NdiyoHapana
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone71%NdiyoHapana
Ralph NormanRalph Norman21%NdiyoHapana
Nicolás Maduro81%NdiyoHapana
Delcy Rodríguez11%NdiyoHapana
Nigel FarageNigel Farage96%NdiyoHapana
Count BinfaceCount Binface4%NdiyoHapana
December 3188%NdiyoHapana
September 3082%NdiyoHapana
December 3114%NdiyoHapana
September 307%NdiyoHapana
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)96%NdiyoHapana
New People (NL)New People (NL)2%NdiyoHapana
Somaliland25%NdiyoHapana
Syria13%NdiyoHapana
December 316%NdiyoHapana
September 303%NdiyoHapana
December 3136%NdiyoHapana
October 3123%NdiyoHapana
August 3126%NdiyoHapana
July 317%NdiyoHapana
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro74%NdiyoHapana
Renan SantosRenan Santos15%NdiyoHapana
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra93%NdiyoHapana
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton7%NdiyoHapana
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya11%NdiyoHapana
UNRWAUNRWA8%NdiyoHapana
December 31, 2026December 31, 20268%NdiyoHapana
September 30, 2026September 30, 20263%NdiyoHapana
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%NdiyoHapana
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)2%NdiyoHapana
July 3112%
August 3138%
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu34%NdiyoHapana
Elon MuskElon Musk12%NdiyoHapana
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%NdiyoHapana
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%NdiyoHapana
December 31, 202689%NdiyoHapana
September 30, 202674%NdiyoHapana
40-6445%NdiyoHapana
<4027%NdiyoHapana
No Meeting by September 3027%NdiyoHapana
Uswisi23%NdiyoHapana
AuylAuyl51%NdiyoHapana
RespublicaRespublica21%NdiyoHapana
Count BinfaceCount Binface74%NdiyoHapana
William CloustonWilliam Clouston10%NdiyoHapana
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed79%NdiyoHapana
Haley StevensHaley Stevens21%NdiyoHapana
December 31December 3138%NdiyoHapana
September 30September 3011%NdiyoHapana
World Cup99%NdiyoHapana
Hundred / Thousand 10+ times54%NdiyoHapana
Democrats Sweep44%NdiyoHapana
R Senate, D House41%NdiyoHapana
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%NdiyoHapana
Republican PartyRepublican Party15%NdiyoHapana
December 3145%NdiyoHapana
July 311%NdiyoHapana
Balance Sheet85%NdiyoHapana
Inflation 20+ times83%NdiyoHapana
760-79921%NdiyoHapana
720-75920%NdiyoHapana
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202649%NdiyoHapana
December18%NdiyoHapana
RepublicanRepublican59%NdiyoHapana
DemocratDemocrat42%NdiyoHapana
RepublicanRepublican76%NdiyoHapana
IndependentIndependent22%NdiyoHapana
No election before 2027No election before 202793%NdiyoHapana
WaddaniWaddani6%NdiyoHapana
July 2492%NdiyoHapana
July 2689%NdiyoHapana
December 3147%NdiyoHapana
October 3144%NdiyoHapana
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 20269%
Alexandru NazareAlexandru Nazare35%NdiyoHapana
Sorin GrindeanuSorin Grindeanu13%NdiyoHapana
Bev CraigBev Craig98%NdiyoHapana
Sian AstleySian Astley2%NdiyoHapana
Oil 3+ times99%NdiyoHapana
Friend of Mine99%NdiyoHapana
DemocraticDemocratic59%NdiyoHapana
RepublicanRepublican41%NdiyoHapana
Fake News89%NdiyoHapana
Drone73%NdiyoHapana
180-19971%NdiyoHapana
200+31%NdiyoHapana
Francesca HongFrancesca Hong83%NdiyoHapana
David CrowleyDavid Crowley10%NdiyoHapana
July 313%
December 3126%
December 3114%NdiyoHapana
October 317%NdiyoHapana
120-13968%NdiyoHapana
140-15915%NdiyoHapana
↑ 4.25%40%NdiyoHapana
↑ 4.5%14%NdiyoHapana
RepublicanRepublican90%NdiyoHapana
DemocratDemocrat11%NdiyoHapana
Jay CollinsJay Collins59%NdiyoHapana
James FishbackJames Fishback22%NdiyoHapana
Karen BassKaren Bass64%NdiyoHapana
Nithya RamanNithya Raman38%NdiyoHapana
Binface <10%35%NdiyoHapana
Binface 10–20%31%NdiyoHapana
William AzaroffWilliam Azaroff32%NdiyoHapana
Ken SimKen Sim24%NdiyoHapana
RepublicanRepublican95%NdiyoHapana
DemocratDemocrat5%NdiyoHapana
December 31, 202617%
December 31, 202734%
Michael AlfonsoMichael Alfonso72%NdiyoHapana
Jessi EbbenJessi Ebben13%NdiyoHapana
Mohammed bin Salman2%NdiyoHapana
Abbas Araghchi2%NdiyoHapana
December 316%NdiyoHapana
September 303%NdiyoHapana
Democratic Party94%NdiyoHapana
Republican Party3%NdiyoHapana
New Rihanna Album52%NdiyoHapana
New Playboi Carti Album51%NdiyoHapana
Keith GrossKeith Gross53%NdiyoHapana
Evan PowerEvan Power26%NdiyoHapana
João Campos73%NdiyoHapana
Raquel Lyra24%NdiyoHapana
Fred ClarkFred Clark85%NdiyoHapana
Chris ArmstrongChris Armstrong3%NdiyoHapana
DemocratDemocrat87%NdiyoHapana
RepublicanRepublican14%NdiyoHapana
20-3999%NdiyoHapana
40-591%NdiyoHapana
Renan SantosRenan Santos68%NdiyoHapana
Ronaldo CaiadoRonaldo Caiado17%NdiyoHapana
Mitchell BermanMitchell Berman88%NdiyoHapana
Lorenzo SantosLorenzo Santos6%NdiyoHapana
December 3129%NdiyoHapana
October 3117%NdiyoHapana
DemocratDemocrat68%NdiyoHapana
RepublicanRepublican33%NdiyoHapana
PHPH63%NdiyoHapana
BNBN36%NdiyoHapana
December 31December 3177%NdiyoHapana
July 31July 316%NdiyoHapana
December 3136%NdiyoHapana
July 312%NdiyoHapana
120-13932%NdiyoHapana
180-19924%NdiyoHapana
June 301%
November 233%
Above 4.5%25%NdiyoHapana
Above 5%15%NdiyoHapana
Feely 10–15%97%NdiyoHapana
Feely 20–25%10%NdiyoHapana
Cori BushCori Bush60%NdiyoHapana
Wesley BellWesley Bell42%NdiyoHapana
Dilution of Iran's UraniumDilution of Iran's Uranium31%NdiyoHapana
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)30%NdiyoHapana
40-5999%NdiyoHapana
60-791%NdiyoHapana
Adam HamiltonAdam Hamilton94%NdiyoHapana
Sandy Spidel NeumannSandy Spidel Neumann3%NdiyoHapana
76-78%76-78%33%NdiyoHapana
78-80%78-80%31%NdiyoHapana
Karoline / Leavitt68%NdiyoHapana
Rigged66%NdiyoHapana
December 3161%NdiyoHapana
September 3053%NdiyoHapana
Republican Party90%NdiyoHapana
Democratic Party12%NdiyoHapana
Republican Party94%NdiyoHapana
Democratic Party6%NdiyoHapana
July 3110%NdiyoHapana
April 301%NdiyoHapana
Daniel PennyDaniel Penny40%NdiyoHapana
Donald BrodieDonald Brodie38%NdiyoHapana
Josh GreenJosh Green98%NdiyoHapana
David BourgoinDavid Bourgoin1%NdiyoHapana
Donavan McKinneyDonavan McKinney81%NdiyoHapana
Shri ThanedarShri Thanedar21%NdiyoHapana
544%NdiyoHapana
438%NdiyoHapana
Byron DonaldsByron Donalds96%NdiyoHapana
James FishbackJames Fishback3%NdiyoHapana
80-9982%NdiyoHapana
60-7915%NdiyoHapana
Gary CorderyGary Cordery81%NdiyoHapana
Ken FujiyamaKen Fujiyama11%NdiyoHapana
Don LemonDon Lemon14%NdiyoHapana
Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg14%NdiyoHapana
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed94%NdiyoHapana
Haley StevensHaley Stevens5%NdiyoHapana
100-11921%NdiyoHapana
120-13919%NdiyoHapana
December 3161%NdiyoHapana
September 3040%NdiyoHapana
John BraunJohn Braun89%NdiyoHapana
Marie Gluesenkamp PerezMarie Gluesenkamp Perez12%NdiyoHapana

Maswali Yanayoulizwa Kuhusu Masoko ya Siasa

Je, masoko ya utabiri yana usahihi zaidi kuliko kura?

Mara nyingi — ndiyo. Yanakusanya taarifa mbalimbali (kura, maarifa ya ndani, uchambuzi) katika bei moja. Si kamilifu; zishughulike kama chombo muhimu, si pekee.

Ni uchaguzi gani unashughulikiwa kwenye Polymarket?

Uchaguzi wa rais na wa Congress wa Marekani, serikali za Ulaya na Asia, mbio muhimu za ndani, uchaguzi wa chama. Kila demokrasia kuu inapata mwangaza wa maana.

Nifanyeje biashara ya uchaguzi kwa njia ya busara?

Fuata kura za kawaida lakini epuka masoko yenye likiditi ndogo. Kujiandaa kabla ya mijadala au mahojiano makubwa kunaweza kupunguza hatari kwenye nafasi zilizokusanywa.

Anza Mafunzo ya Polymarket Bure
Trade soko la utabiri kwa pesa za virtual. Bei halisi, hatari sifuri. Shindana kwenye orodha ya washindani.
$1K
Fedha za Kijamii
500+
Masoko
$0
Hatari Halisi
Jifunze zaidi