The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
fomc
· Economic Policy
· Economy
Fed Decision in July?
No change
$1.1M Volume
93%
25 bps increase
$3.9M Volume
4%
25 bps decrease
$851.3K Volume
2%
50+ bps decrease
$1.1M Volume
1%
50+ bps increase
$1.3M Volume
1%
About This Market
Similar Markets

Fed Decision in June?
No change
Yes 99¢No 1¢
25 bps decrease
Yes 1¢No 99¢

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)
Pause–Pause–Pause
Yes 99¢No 1¢
Other
Yes 1¢No 99¢

Fed Decision in September?
No change
Yes 76¢No 24¢
25 bps increase
Yes 19¢No 81¢

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?
0
Yes 73¢No 27¢
1
Yes 11¢No 89¢

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause
Yes 59¢No 41¢
Pause–Pause–Cut
Yes 24¢No 76¢

Fed rate hike by...?
October Meeting
Yes 33¢No 67¢
September Meeting
Yes 24¢No 76¢

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Pause–Pause–Pause
Yes 93¢No 7¢
Other
Yes 6¢No 94¢