US-China, Priced by the Market
Tariff levels, trade-deal milestones, export controls and the broader US-China relationship - these markets reprice on every announcement from Washington or Beijing, often hours before analysts publish takes. Real-money probabilities cut through commentary: the price is what informed money actually believes. Background reading: our geopolitics trading guide.
Alibaba83%YesNo
Moonshot14%YesNo
#1094%YesNo
#544%YesNo
December 3138%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
No Change62%YesNo
Decrease36%YesNo
No Change62%YesNo
Decrease36%YesNo
US-China markets - FAQ
What US-China markets does Polymarket list?
Tariff-level thresholds, trade-agreement milestones, tech and export-control decisions, currency questions and related leadership or diplomacy events - the mix follows the news cycle.
Why do these prices move before the news settles?
Traders with information or fast analysis act immediately, and the order book aggregates them. A sharp move in a US-China market is often the earliest public signal that something changed.
How are ambiguous outcomes resolved?
Each market defines its resolution source - official government publications, named data releases or credible-reporting standards. The rules tab is the contract; read it before trading.
