Polymarket United States Prediction Markets

Polymarket United States markets cover the biggest storylines in American politics and policy: presidential and Congressional races, control of the House and Senate, Federal Reserve rate decisions, key economic data and major court rulings. Prices update in real time based on order-book depth.

These markets are most active around decision dates - election nights, Fed meetings, jobs and inflation reports. Trading volume reflects how closely the world watches US events.

83 active markets
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep77%YesNo
R Senate, D House20%YesNo
$60.6M Volume Ends today
Which party will win the House in 2026?Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party95%YesNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party6%YesNo
$42.6M Volume Ends today
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance18%YesNo
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%YesNo
$726.9M Volume 08/11
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party78%YesNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party24%YesNo
$18.2M Volume Ends today
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)75%YesNo
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)26%YesNo
$13.1M Volume Ends today
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)Abdul El-Sayed (D)81%YesNo
Mike Rogers (R)Mike Rogers (R)20%YesNo
$8.5M Volume Ends today
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4756%YesNo
4814%YesNo
$5.8M Volume Ends today
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%YesNo
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom15%YesNo
$1.3B Volume 08/11
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance36%YesNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio19%YesNo
$721M Volume 08/11
Maine Senate Election WinnerMaine Senate Election Winner
Troy Jackson (D)Troy Jackson (D)74%YesNo
Susan Collins (R)Susan Collins (R)28%YesNo
$3.7M Volume Ends today
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)72%YesNo
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)29%YesNo
$2.8M Volume Ends today
Alaska Senate Election WinnerAlaska Senate Election Winner
Mary PeltolaMary Peltola72%YesNo
Sen. Dan SullivanSen. Dan Sullivan29%YesNo
$2.8M Volume Ends today
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement99%YesNo
Hormuz Agreement; D Senate1%YesNo
$1.9M Volume Ends today
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 19044%YesNo
190-19416%YesNo
$609.4K Volume Ends today
Alaska Governor Election Winner Alaska Governor Election Winner
Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins88%YesNo
Bernadette WilsonBernadette Wilson11%YesNo
$1.8M Volume Ends today
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)
48+44%YesNo
4617%YesNo
$69.5K Volume Ends today
Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate75%YesNo
Oil ≥ $80; R Senate25%YesNo
$999.7K Volume Ends today
Wisconsin Governor Election WinnerWisconsin Governor Election Winner
David Crowley (D)David Crowley (D)86%YesNo
Tom Tiffany (R)Tom Tiffany (R)12%YesNo
$1M Volume Ends today
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate76%YesNo
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate23%YesNo
$239.4K Volume Ends today
Fall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US SenateFall Elections Combo: Brazil, Israel, US Senate
Lula, Eizenkot, Dems38%YesNo
Lula, Netanyahu, Dems28%YesNo
$527.3K Volume Ends today
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?
Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken70%YesNo
No Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken24%YesNo
$9.5K Volume 01/01
Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?
Oil ≥ $80; R Senate25%
Oil < $80; R Senate1%
$75K Volume Ends today
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Virginia?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Virginia?
9+49%YesNo
834%YesNo
$24.7K Volume Ends today
Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?
Utah99%YesNo
Texas98%YesNo
$453.2K Volume Ends today
Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?
Oil ≥ $85; D Senate75%YesNo
Oil ≥ $85; R Senate23%YesNo
$1.3M Volume Ends today
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate76%YesNo
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate24%YesNo
$434K Volume Ends today
Democratic VP Nominee 2028Democratic VP Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez11%YesNo
Gretchen WhitmerGretchen Whitmer9%YesNo
$131.7K Volume 08/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Pennsylvania?
1138%YesNo
1034%YesNo
$31.1K Volume Ends today
Dem sweep & Democrat wins 2028 presidency?Dem sweep & Democrat wins 2028 presidency?
Dem sweep; Dem wins 202846%YesNo
Dem sweep; Dem loses 202823%YesNo
$2.8K Volume 08/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Arizona?
550%YesNo
632%YesNo
$34.9K Volume Ends today
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets)Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? (Lower Brackets)
190+56%YesNo
185-18918%YesNo
$18.9K Volume Ends today
How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?How many House seats will the Democrats win in North Carolina?
6+40%YesNo
540%YesNo
$40.5K Volume Ends today
Dem sweep & Gaza ceasefire Phase II by end of 2027?Dem sweep & Gaza ceasefire Phase II by end of 2027?
Dem sweep; No Phase II54%YesNo
No Dem sweep; No Phase II24%YesNo
$1.3K Volume 01/01
Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026?Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026?
Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas63%YesNo
No Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas30%YesNo
$1.8K Volume 01/01
Dem sweep & Gas hits $4.50 by end of 2026?Dem sweep & Gas hits $4.50 by end of 2026?
Dem sweep; No $4.50 gas51%YesNo
No Dem sweep; No $4.50 gas23%YesNo
$1.2K Volume 01/01
How low will Lake Powell drop?How low will Lake Powell drop?
Above 3,510 ft95%YesNo
3,500–3,510 ft3%YesNo
$93.8K Volume 16/04
How many House seats will the Democrats win in New Jersey?How many House seats will the Democrats win in New Jersey?
1060%YesNo
11+30%YesNo
$19.8K Volume Ends today
How many Mexico border seats will Dems win in the house?How many Mexico border seats will Dems win in the house?
9+84%YesNo
7-813%YesNo
$17.7K Volume Ends today
USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?USS Theodore Roosevelt arrives in CENTCOM by...?
November 3096%YesNo
November 1587%YesNo
$33.2K Volume 01/12
Republican VP Nominee 2028Republican VP Nominee 2028
Marco RubioMarco Rubio27%YesNo
Tucker CarlsonTucker Carlson24%YesNo
$60.1K Volume 08/11
How many House seats will the Democrats win in New York?How many House seats will the Democrats win in New York?
2035%YesNo
1933%YesNo
$14.8K Volume Ends today
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Ohio?
7+49%YesNo
638%YesNo
$39.9K Volume Ends today
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
HesaiHesai19%YesNo
CXMTCXMT18%YesNo
$715.9K Volume 01/07
How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?
058%YesNo
119%YesNo
$723 Volume 28/01
How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?How many House seats will the Democrats win in California?
4876%YesNo
4712%YesNo
$31.3K Volume Ends today
Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?Republicans win the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement?
Hormuz Agreement; R Senate2%
No Hormuz Agreement; R Senate23%
$93.2K Volume Ends today
Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?
Dem sweep; No recession46%YesNo
Dem sweep; Recession22%YesNo
$664 Volume 01/02
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1326%YesNo
1223%YesNo
$32.7K Volume Ends today
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US Markets FAQ

Which US markets exist on Polymarket?

Presidential and midterm races, House and Senate control, Fed rate decisions, economic data prints and major legal or policy outcomes. Both binary (Yes/No) and multi-outcome contracts.

What moves prices in US markets?

Polls, debates, economic releases and breaking political news. Odds can shift within minutes of a major headline as traders reprice the order book.

How are the odds set?

There is no house line. Prices come from real buy and sell orders, so each contract's price reflects the market's live consensus probability.

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