News & Analysis
Polymarket News: Latest Prediction Market Events & Analysis
The latest Polymarket news and current events: politics, crypto, economy, sports and geopolitics, with expert analysis of the markets moving right now.
July 19, 2026
Geopolitics
The Tip Over Lunch, and the Ledger That Never Forgets
A whisper over lunch disappears. A trade placed on that whisper is printed on a public chain that never forgets.
Deep Dive
Investigations & long reads
The Last Three Seconds: How Polymarket's Five-Minute Bitcoin Market Got Gamed
A Stanford and Singapore study found 821 wallets pocketed about $8.2 million by nudging Bitcoin's price in the final seconds befor
July 16, 2026From Fort Bragg to Tel Aviv: The Polymarket Insider-Trading Arrests That Are Now Reshaping Prediction Markets
A US Army soldier indicted over $409K in Maduro-capture bets. An Israeli Air Force major charged for trading the Iran-strike date.
May 5, 2026The Polymarket Ceasefire Resolutions That Both Sides Are Calling Scandals: $203M Iran NO, $20.9M Hezbollah YES
Two big April-2026 Polymarket markets settled in opposite directions despite both arguably violating their own rules: US-Iran exte
May 3, 2026Latest
The $160 Million Question of What Counts as a Suit
Everyone saw the same photo. More than $160 million rode on whether they agreed on what it showed.
July 17, 2026
The Bounty Hunters of Polymarket
A brand-new wallet makes one improbably perfect bet. Somewhere, an alert fires, and the hunt is already on.
July 17, 2026
The Oracle on Trial
Predicting the future is the easy part. The hard part is getting a crowd to agree on the past.
July 17, 2026
The One Opponent Messi Never Faced: Argentina, England and a Price That Keeps Moving
Argentina meet England in the World Cup semifinal in Atlanta, 40 years after the Hand of God. Opta makes it near-even, England 38.9% to Argentina 34.1
July 15, 2026
The Real Final Is July 14: What the Money Knows About the World Cup Semifinals
Polymarket prices France ~39%, England ~21.6%, Spain ~21.1%, Argentina ~17.3% for the 2026 World Cup - and the money says the real final is the France
July 14, 2026
World Cup 2026 Golden Boot Odds: Mbappé Leads, Kane Chasing After a 61-Goal Season
Live World Cup 2026 Golden Boot prediction-market odds: Mbappé 16%, Kane 12.5%, Oyarzabal 7.5%, Haaland 6%. Who wins top scorer? Full data, analysis a
June 10, 2026
World Cup 2026 Dark Horses: Traders Give 32% That a First-Time Champion Lifts the Trophy
Which World Cup 2026 underdog goes furthest? Prediction markets give a 32% chance a first-time champion wins. Norway, Morocco, Japan and Colombia - li
June 10, 2026
Will Iran Play at the World Cup? The Market Says 97% - Despite the War, Pulled Tickets and a Visa Standoff
Iran's World Cup 2026 participation amid the Israel-Iran war: visa drama, pulled ticket allocations, Trump's posts - and why Polymarket still prices I
June 10, 2026
Trump and America's World Cup: A 47% Coin-Flip on the USA Opener - and Mexico Outpricing the Hosts
Will Trump attend the USA's World Cup opener vs Paraguay at SoFi? Markets say 47.5%. Plus: why traders price Mexico (45%) over USA (32%) as the furthe
June 10, 2026
France or Spain? Inside the $1.8 Billion World Cup Winner Market
Live World Cup 2026 winner odds from Polymarket's $1.8B market: France 16.2%, Spain 16.1%, England 10.7%. Deschamps' farewell, Yamal's hamstring, Mess
June 10, 2026
