This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Trump-Machado
· Venezuela
· Trump
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
$1.3M Volume
55%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1.5M Volume
30%
María Corina Machado
$998.5K Volume
9%
Jorge Rodríguez
$955.1K Volume
1%
No Head of State
$889.8K Volume
1%
Pete Hegseth
$8.4M Volume
1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2.1M Volume
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$1.5M Volume
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$634.9K Volume
1%
Edmundo González
$680.1K Volume
1%
Donald Trump
$865.8K Volume
1%
Marco Rubio
$738.4K Volume
1%
Evan Pettus
$4.5M Volume
1%
Dan Caine
$3.1M Volume
1%
Frank Donovan
$24.9M Volume
1%
Richard Grenell
$31.9M Volume
1%
Leader 2
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Leader 1
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Leader 31
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Leader 37
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Leader 39
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Other
50%
About This Market
AI Analysis
The prediction market regarding the leadership of Venezuela by the end of 2026 currently shows an 8.0% probability for a specific outcome, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding the country's political landscape. With a trading volume of $84.5 million, this market highlights investor sentiment and speculation on the future of Venezuela's governance, which is critical given the ongoing economic and social challenges the nation faces. Understanding these dynamics can provide valuable insights into potential shifts in power and stability in the region.