This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Yes is the outsider here at 4%, while No trades at 96%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 4% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (162 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Traders have put $71.7K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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