Iran · Trump

Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

$2M Volume
01/08/2026 03:59
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Benjamin Netanyahu
$93.6K Volume
1%
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
$126.4K Volume
1%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$213.7K Volume
1%
Steve Witkoff
$195.7K Volume
1%
Abbas Araghchi
$164.4K Volume
1%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$115.8K Volume
1%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa
$28.3K Volume
1%
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah
$145.3K Volume
1%
King Abdullah II
$30.6K Volume
1%
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
$15.9K Volume
1%
Marco Rubio
$152K Volume
1%
Pete Hegseth
$70.5K Volume
1%
Mohammed bin Salman
$175.5K Volume
1%
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan
$36.5K Volume
1%
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
$22.4K Volume
1%
Resolved 5
Donald Trump
$130.1K Volume
Yes
JD Vance
$102K Volume
Yes
Masoud Pezeshkian
$81.4K Volume
Yes
Ali Larijani
$15.5K Volume
No
Shehbaz Sharif
$114.8K Volume
Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity.

The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify.

The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement.

Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and parties to the agreement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Even the leader is cheap - Abbas Araghchi trades at 1%, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi at 1%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Right now the market's best guess is Abbas Araghchi at 1% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal market resolve?
Mark 1 Aug 2026 (2 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Traders have put $2M through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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