This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Trump out as President by July 31?
The market prices Yes at only 1%, with No at 99%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Trump out as President by July 31?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 1% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Trump out as President by July 31 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Jul 2026 (29 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Trump out as President by July 31?
Traders have put $132.7K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Trump out as President by July 31 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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