CDU · CSU

Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?

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$4.8K Volume

29/07/2026 23:59

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Thorsten Frei

$3.3K Volume

85%

Carsten Linnemann

$545 Volume

11%

Alexander Dobrindt

$300 Volume

Günter Krings

$229 Volume

Nina Warken

$140 Volume

Michael Brand

$135 Volume

Alexander Hoffmann

$222 Volume

On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/).

This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn.

Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify.

If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?

The money is on Thorsten Frei at 84%; Other follows at 50%. Live order-book odds, refreshed with every fill.

What do traders predict for Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?

The market makes Thorsten Frei the favorite at 84%. Implied probabilities come from real positions, and they move as traders digest new information.

When does the Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU) market resolve?

The market runs until 29 Jul 2026 (8 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.

How much money is trading on Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?

Total turnover stands at $4.8K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.

How can I trade Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU) on Polymarket?

You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.