Polymarket News & Analysis | Daily Prediction Market Insights
News, analysis and insights on Polymarket prediction markets - politics, economy, crypto, sports and geopolitics. Daily updates backed by live market data and odds.
Cboe Q3 earnings test its prediction-market push
Cboe reports third-quarter earnings on October 30, 2026, its first since the SEC cleared KPI binary options tied to 23 companies and launching through Robinhood. Analysts expect EPS near $3.42 and revenue around $707 mil
CFTC reopens Polymarket 2022 settlement probe
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is re-examining whether Polymarket honored the 2022 settlement in which it prom
October 29, 2026Why prediction markets misread Brazil's runoff
Polymarket and Kalshi gave Flávio Bolsonaro about 80% to win Brazil's runoff, and then Lula won. A thin market dominated
October 29, 2026NBA names Polymarket, Kalshi preferred exchanges
The NBA named Polymarket and Kalshi its preferred prediction-market exchanges and signed a cooperation agreement with th
October 28, 2026Polymarket had Bolsonaro at 80%; Lula won
Polymarket and Kalshi gave Flavio Bolsonaro roughly 80% to win Brazil's runoff. Instead Lula took 51.8% of the vote, the
October 28, 2026Polymarket swings to Netanyahu after Israel vote
A day after Israel's October 27 election, Polymarket's next-prime-minister market reversed. Traders moved Benjamin Netan
October 28, 2026$53.6 million on one question: who will be sworn in as prime minister
On the eve of Israel's 26th Knesset election, Polymarket's largest Israel market is about the next prime minister. Israe
October 26, 2026Polymarket prices Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu
12 days before Israel's October 27 Knesset election, Polymarket's traders price Gadi Eisenkot's new Yashar party ahead o
October 15, 2026Trump at 34%, markets price 91% Democratic House
A Financial Times poll released Monday put President Trump's approval at 34%, with 59% disapproving, three weeks before
October 14, 2026Polymarket priced Lisnard 4th; polls say 3.5%
David Lisnard's Polymarket price climbed from 1.4% to a brief 17% peak, ranking him 4th for France's 2027 presidency. Fr
October 14, 2026Blockchain.com files for CFTC prediction license
Blockchain.com has filed to register as both a CFTC-regulated exchange and a broker, a bid to bring crypto derivatives a
October 14, 2026Polymarket CEO calls 100x tokens 'hot potato'
At TOKEN2049 Singapore, Polymarket's Shayne Coplan called the hunt for 100x tokens a 'game of irrational exuberance and
October 8, 2026CFTC chair says it caught politicians trading
Michael Selig, the CFTC's confirmed chairman, told CNBC the agency has caught political figures trying to trade on Polym
October 7, 2026Illinois ruling deepens prediction-market split
A federal judge in Chicago shielded Kalshi, Coinbase and the CFTC from Illinois licensing rules on October 2, 2026, find
October 7, 2026EDGE Markets opens margin rails to AI agents
EDGE Markets says it will let institutional traders authorize AI agents and trading algorithms to deploy capital on roun
October 7, 2026CFTC sends 2 swap-definition rules to OIRA
The CFTC has sent 2 rulemakings to the White House's OIRA that would redraw when an event contract counts as a swap and
October 3, 2026CFTC: 'mention markets' presumed manipulable
The CFTC's Division of Market Oversight issued a six-page staff advisory on September 22, 2026, saying it may treat cont
October 3, 2026Texas TV shows small firms hedging on Kalshi
A Texas TV segment on October 2 showed local firms hedging weather and cost risk on Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated exchange,
October 3, 2026Markets price Flávio at 60%, Brazil polls tie
Two of the biggest prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, price Senator Flávio Bolsonaro above 60% to win Brazil's p
October 2, 2026
