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Business Markets

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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
Yes 80¢No 20¢
1 (25 bps)
Yes 13¢No 87¢
$33.4M Volume 31/12
Largest Company end of June?
Largest Company end of June?
NVIDIANVIDIA
Yes 96¢No 4¢
AlphabetAlphabet
Yes 2¢No 98¢
$206.9K Volume 30/06
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap
2.0T-2.5T
Yes 47¢No 53¢
1.5T-2.0T
Yes 31¢No 69¢
$2.6M Volume
OpenAI IPO by...?
OpenAI IPO by...?
December 31, 2026
Yes 69¢No 31¢
September 30, 2026
Yes 29¢No 71¢
$1.9M Volume 31/12
IPOs before 2027?
IPOs before 2027?
SpaceXSpaceX
Yes 99¢No 1¢
AnthropicAnthropic
Yes 89¢No 11¢
$34K Volume 31/12
How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?
How much will SpaceX raise in its IPO?
70-80B
Yes 94¢No 6¢
80-90B
Yes 4¢No 96¢
$317.8K Volume
2nd largest company end of June?
2nd largest company end of June?
AlphabetAlphabet
Yes 51¢No 49¢
AppleApple
Yes 40¢No 60¢
$19.3K Volume 30/06
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
71%
chance
Yes 71¢ No 29¢
$131.9K Volume 31/12
Largest Company end of December 2026?
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIANVIDIA
Yes 68¢No 32¢
AlphabetAlphabet
Yes 15¢No 85¢
$206.9K Volume 31/12
Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
45%+45%+
Yes 58¢No 42¢
50%+50%+
Yes 20¢No 80¢
$302.9K Volume 30/06
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
1%
chance
Yes 1¢ No 99¢
$3.5M Volume 30/06
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
OpenAIOpenAI
Yes 7¢No 93¢
xAIxAI
Yes 2¢No 98¢
$6.2K Volume 30/06
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceXSpaceX
Yes 82¢No 18¢
AnthropicAnthropic
Yes 15¢No 85¢
$2.3M Volume 31/12
3rd largest company end of June?
3rd largest company end of June?
AppleApple
Yes 48¢No 52¢
AlphabetAlphabet
Yes 43¢No 57¢
$2.9K Volume 30/06
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?
10%
chance
Yes 10¢ No 90¢
$2.9K Volume 31/12
FDA approves Arcutis' Zoryve cream? FDA approves Arcutis' Zoryve cream?
78%
chance
Yes 78¢ No 22¢
$5.8K Volume 29/06
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
CursorCursor
Yes 88¢No 12¢
Pizza HutPizza Hut
Yes 80¢No 20¢
$17.9M Volume 31/12
In which month will SpaceX IPO?
In which month will SpaceX IPO?
June
Yes 98¢No 2¢
July
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$478.6K Volume 31/12
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
1%
chance
Yes 1¢ No 99¢
$6.2K Volume 30/06
US recession by end of 2026? US recession by end of 2026?
18%
chance
Yes 18¢ No 82¢
$1.5M Volume 31/01
FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz? FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz?
76%
chance
Yes 76¢ No 24¢
$5.8K Volume Ends today
Which banks will fail by June 30?
Which banks will fail by June 30?
BMOBMO
Yes 2¢No 98¢
KeyBankKeyBank
Yes 2¢No 98¢
$1.2K Volume 30/06
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
98%
chance
Yes 98¢ No 2¢
$997 Volume 31/12
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?
57%
chance
Yes 57¢ No 43¢
$277.7K Volume 31/12
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?
1%
chance
Yes 1¢ No 99¢
$55.3K Volume 30/06
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Elon MuskElon Musk
Yes 94¢No 6¢
Jensen HuangJensen Huang
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$838 Volume 31/12
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?
AristotleAristotle
Yes 37¢No 63¢
ForecastExForecastEx
Yes 11¢No 89¢
$674 Volume 30/06
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?
1%
chance
Yes 1¢ No 99¢
$108.9K Volume 30/06
Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30?
3%
chance
Yes 3¢ No 97¢
$11K Volume 30/06
AI bubble burst by...?
AI bubble burst by...?
December 31, 2026
Yes 23¢No 77¢
$2.9M Volume 31/12
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first?
99%
chance
Yes 99¢ No 1¢
$84K Volume 31/12
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
1.5T+
Yes 47¢No 53¢
1.25T–1.5T
Yes 17¢No 83¢
$17.3K Volume 31/12
Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?
Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?
Frontier AirlinesFrontier Airlines
Yes 23¢No 77¢
JetBlueJetBlue
Yes 12¢No 88¢
$118.6K Volume 31/12
How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by June 30?
How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by June 30?
85%
Yes 29¢No 71¢
90%
Yes 8¢No 92¢
$239K Volume 30/06
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
GoogleGoogle
Yes 55¢No 45¢
OpenAIOpenAI
Yes 35¢No 65¢
$6.2K Volume 31/12
FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug? FDA approves Viridian Therapeutics' Veligrotug?
76%
chance
Yes 76¢ No 24¢
$5.8K Volume 30/06
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ?
$800B
Yes 85¢No 15¢
$1T
Yes 82¢No 18¢
$1.5M Volume 31/12
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
21%
chance
Yes 21¢ No 79¢
$59.6K Volume 31/12
Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?
Lead Bank in Anthropic's IPO?
Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley
Yes 38¢No 62¢
Goldman SachsGoldman Sachs
Yes 36¢No 64¢
$32.6K Volume 31/12
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen?
81%
chance
Yes 81¢ No 19¢
$5.8K Volume 30/06
Who will buy the Seattle Seahawks?
Who will buy the Seattle Seahawks?
John StantonJohn Stanton
Yes 11¢No 89¢
Mark ZuckerbergMark Zuckerberg
Yes 9¢No 91¢
$208.3K Volume 10/09
GPU rental prices (H100) end of June?
GPU rental prices (H100) end of June?
$2.60-$2.90
Yes 33¢No 67¢
$2.90-$3.20
Yes 24¢No 76¢
$322 Volume 30/06
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr?
72%
chance
Yes 72¢ No 28¢
$5.8K Volume 18/06
GPU rental prices (B200) end of June?
GPU rental prices (B200) end of June?
$5.00-$6.00
Yes 31¢No 69¢
$4.00-$5.00
Yes 18¢No 82¢
$266 Volume 30/06
FDA approves Arcalyst technology transfer? FDA approves Arcalyst technology transfer?
94%
chance
Yes 94¢ No 6¢
$5.8K Volume 19/06
US bank failure by June 30? US bank failure by June 30?
19%
chance
Yes 19¢ No 81¢
$239 Volume 30/06
OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
OpenAI GPT score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30?
50%+50%+
Yes 23¢No 77¢
$25.2K Volume 30/06
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?
How many Tesla deliveries in Q2 2026?
450k–475k
Yes 36¢No 64¢
425k–450k
Yes 25¢No 75¢
$182 Volume 30/06
FDA approves Unicycive's Oxylanthanum carbonate? FDA approves Unicycive's Oxylanthanum carbonate?
77%
chance
Yes 77¢ No 23¢
$5.8K Volume 29/06
Anthropic acquired before 2027? Anthropic acquired before 2027?
5%
chance
Yes 5¢ No 95¢
$163 Volume 31/12
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