US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.

Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.

A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The prediction market on whether the US will obtain Iranian enriched uranium currently stands at a 20.0% probability, reflecting cautious optimism amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. With a trading volume of $6.2 million, this market highlights investor sentiment regarding potential shifts in US-Iran relations and the implications for nuclear non-proliferation efforts. Understanding this market is crucial, as any official confirmation of US possession of Iranian enriched uranium could significantly impact international diplomacy and security dynamics.