This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Past
Analysis & News
Will Iran Play at the World Cup? The Market Says 97% - Despite the War, Pulled Tickets and a Visa Standoff
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 12%, while No trades at 88%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 12%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (175 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Total turnover stands at $1.8K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
Similar Markets
Mojtaba Khamenei83%YesNo
Reza Pahlavi5%YesNo
August 1524%YesNo
July 3117%YesNo
August 3134%YesNo
July 3120%YesNo
July 3147%YesNo
July 1717%YesNo
December 3138%YesNo
September 3019%YesNo
December 3148%YesNo
August 3136%YesNo
August 3121%YesNo
July 3112%YesNo
