The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
No change
$413.5K Volume
57%
25 bps increase
$446.3K Volume
38%
25 bps decrease
$696.9K Volume
4%
50+ bps decrease
$352.2K Volume
3%
50+ bps increase
$231.4K Volume
2%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Fed Decision in September?
It's a genuine race: No change edges the field at 57%, barely ahead of 25 bps increase at 37%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for Fed Decision in September?
Traders give No change a 57% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the Fed Decision in September market resolve?
The market runs until 16 Sep 2026 (69 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Fed Decision in September?
$1.8M in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Fed Decision in September on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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