This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Yes is the outsider here at 1%, while No trades at 99%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 1%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026 market resolve?
Mark 30 Sep 2026 (70 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Total turnover stands at $71.7K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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