Politics Prediction Markets
Politics markets are among Polymarket's deepest — US elections (president, Congress), Israel, UK, Germany, France and Brazil. Also government crises, no-confidence votes, impeachments and cabinet appointments.
Polls are one input among many — prediction markets aggregate polling, voter knowledge, social data and expert forecasts into a single price. Often more accurate than any single poll.
150 active markets
No change85%YesNo25 bps increase14%YesNo
JD Vance20%YesNo
Marco Rubio14%YesNo
Gavin Newsom20%YesNo
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%YesNo
J.D. Vance42%YesNoMarco Rubio28%YesNo
140-15938%YesNo
160-17930%YesNo
40-6493%YesNo
65-896%YesNo
Mojtaba Khamenei73%YesNo
No Head of State8%YesNo
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%YesNo
Flávio Bolsonaro26%YesNo
August 3135%YesNo
August 1529%YesNo
August 1515%YesNo
July 319%YesNo
Marine Le Pen31%YesNo
Édouard Philippe27%YesNo
160-17918%YesNo
140-15917%YesNo
25 bps increase49%YesNoNo change44%YesNo
Gadi Eizenkot51%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu38%YesNo
140-15917%YesNo
180-19917%YesNo
June 30, 202738%YesNo
December 3127%YesNo
December 3133%YesNo
September 3023%YesNo
Abdul El-Sayed80%YesNo
Haley Stevens21%YesNo
Nicolás Maduro81%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez11%YesNo
United Russia (ER)57%YesNo
New People (NL)37%YesNo
August 3143%YesNo
July 319%YesNo
August 3147%YesNo
August 1535%YesNo
No Meeting by September 3025%YesNo
Pakistan23%YesNo
Nigel Farage96%YesNo
Count Binface4%YesNo
December 3142%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
December 316%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
June 30, 202716%YesNo
December 31, 20269%YesNo
No meeting before 202791%YesNo
Switzerland3%YesNo
Ursula von der Leyen66%YesNo
Elon Musk41%YesNo
Darline Graham Nordone69%YesNo
Ralph Norman17%YesNo
Save America Act89%YesNo
Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times87%YesNo
Jay Feely99%YesNo
Paul Reevs1%YesNo
December 3114%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
September 3031%YesNoJuly 319%YesNoMark Lamb99%YesNo
Jay Feely1%YesNo
December 3110%
June 301%
July 318%YesNo
February 281%YesNo
Democratic Party86%YesNo
Republican Party15%YesNo
December 319%
June 301%
Yulia Navalnaya11%YesNo
UNRWA9%YesNo
December 318%YesNoApril 307%YesNo40-6450%YesNo
<4030%YesNo
Magdalena Andersson78%YesNo
Ulf Kristersson17%YesNo
June 302%
July 3115%
December 31, 202690%YesNo
September 30, 202675%YesNo
No Return to Normal Traffic in 202647%YesNoDecember16%YesNo
July 316%
December 3131%
August 3179%YesNo
July 3143%YesNo
Bev Craig98%YesNo
Geraldine Coggins1%YesNo
Inflation 20+ times88%YesNo
Balance Sheet86%YesNo
Liz Kendall3%YesNo
James Murray2%YesNo
August 3123%YesNo
July 317%YesNo
July 2295%YesNo
July 3190%YesNo
Farage 60–70%24%YesNo
Farage 70–80%22%YesNo
Another Pandemic51%YesNo
New Rihanna Album51%YesNo
Count Binface60%YesNo
John Stevens13%YesNo
Democrats Sweep44%YesNo
R Senate, D House41%YesNo
Byron Donalds96%YesNo
James Fishback3%YesNo
Pete Buttigieg14%YesNo
Gavin Newsom13%YesNo
Labour Party66%YesNo
National Party36%YesNo
December 318%YesNo
August 312%YesNo
Warren Petersen99%YesNo
Rodney Glassman3%YesNo
Ken Paxton (R)57%YesNoJames Talarico (D)44%YesNo680-71922%YesNo
720-75918%YesNo
AfD98%YesNo
CDU2%YesNo
Dilution of Iran's Uranium34%YesNo
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)31%YesNo
Likud51%YesNo
Yashar46%YesNo
Republican Party92%YesNo
Democratic Party7%YesNo
Linke39%YesNo
CDU29%YesNo
December 3145%YesNo
September 3014%YesNo
Javier Milei48%YesNo
Axel Kicillof48%YesNo
August 316%YesNo
July 241%YesNo
Flávio Bolsonaro79%YesNo
Renan Santos12%YesNo
July 3110%YesNo
April 301%YesNo
Giorgia Meloni69%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu45%YesNo
December 3136%YesNo
October 3118%YesNo
Hakainde Hichilema90%YesNo
Brian Mundubile12%YesNo
Matt Gaetz48%YesNoDonald Brodie40%YesNo
December 3174%YesNoJuly 319%YesNo
Republican Party56%YesNoDemocratic Party44%YesNo
40-5964%YesNo
20-3933%YesNo
Trump Account96%YesNo
Transgender86%YesNo
Democrat68%YesNoRepublican32%YesNo
Marat Kambolov95%YesNo
Oleg Kozaev2%YesNo
Eduardo Paes93%YesNo
Douglas Ruas3%YesNo
Democrat87%YesNoRepublican14%YesNo
Ty Masterson83%YesNo
Philip Sarnecki15%YesNo
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202613%
December 3152%YesNo
September 3034%YesNo
Renan Santos64%YesNo
Ronaldo Caiado17%YesNo
160-17936%YesNo
120-13936%YesNo
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf2%YesNo
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa2%YesNo
Feely 10–15%66%YesNo
Feely 15–20%45%YesNo
Somaliland22%YesNo
Lebanon15%YesNo
Haley Stevens51%YesNo
Abdul El-Sayed43%YesNo
December 3131%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
December 315%YesNo
March 311%YesNo
Republican Party89%YesNo
Democratic Party11%YesNo
Fishback <10%72%YesNo
Fishback 10–15%12%YesNo
Democratic Party65%YesNo
Republican Party35%YesNo
June 301%
December 3111%
Republican81%YesNoDemocrat18%YesNoBinface <10%41%YesNo
Binface 10–20%31%YesNo
Iliana Iotova52%YesNo
Аndrey Gyurov39%YesNo
Francesca Hong75%YesNo
David Crowley13%YesNo
GlobalFoundries81%YesNo
D-Wave72%YesNo
Thorsten Frei84%YesNo
Carsten Linnemann14%YesNo
Giorgia Meloni53%YesNo
Elly Schlein20%YesNo
Republican71%YesNo
Independent30%YesNo
December 3181%YesNo
August 3166%YesNo
Cori Bush54%YesNo
Wesley Bell47%YesNo
Kimberly Yee99%YesNo
Tom Horne5%YesNo
PQ73%YesNo
CAQ15%YesNoLula da Silva 5-10%36%YesNoLula da Silva 10-15%29%YesNo
Tom Begich34%YesNo
Bernadette Wilson30%YesNo120-13929%YesNo
100-11922%YesNo
Republican Party94%YesNo
Democratic Party6%YesNo
Politics Markets FAQ
Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?
Often — yes. They aggregate diverse information (polls, inside knowledge, analysis) into one price. Not perfect though; treat them as a key tool, not the only one.
Which elections are covered on Polymarket?
US presidential and congressional, European and Asian governments, key local races, party primaries. Every major democracy gets meaningful coverage.
How do I trade elections smartly?
Track standard polling but avoid thin-liquidity markets. Hedging around debates or major interviews can reduce risk on concentrated positions.
