Geopolitics Prediction Markets
Geopolitics prediction markets price the world's biggest power struggles - wars, military clashes, sanctions, peace talks and international deals - as live probabilities that update with every headline.
On Polymarket these markets often carry deep liquidity around fast-moving news events and run for weeks or months. Polymarkets tracks the real prices and probabilities across active conflicts and power shifts worldwide, so you can read the crowd's view in real time, compare scenarios, and practice risk-free in training mode before trading on Polymarket.
Mojtaba Khamenei79%YesNo
No Head of State7%YesNo
August 3155%YesNo
August 1446%YesNo
July 2799%YesNo
July 2899%YesNo
June 302%
July 3174%
December 3113%YesNo
September 308%YesNo
December 3130%YesNo
September 3011%YesNo
August 317%
August 151%
December 3185%YesNo
October 3179%YesNo
December 3126%YesNo
October 3118%YesNo
July 3136%YesNo
July 272%YesNo
June 30, 202726%YesNo
December 3122%YesNo
August 3131%YesNo
August 1517%YesNo
December 319%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
August 3135%YesNo
August 1519%YesNo
December 3123%YesNo
September 3019%YesNo
30+2%YesNo
40+1%YesNo
August 314%
September 307%
December 3113%YesNoSeptember 305%YesNo
June 30, 202716%YesNo
December 31, 20269%YesNo
December 3123%YesNo
September 309%YesNo
December 316%YesNo
March 311%YesNo
August 157%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
September 3097%
December 3198%
Gadi Eizenkot52%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu34%YesNo
Nicolás Maduro82%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%YesNo
December 31, 202692%YesNo
September 30, 202687%YesNo
No Meeting by September 3037%YesNo
Switzerland25%YesNo
December 3112%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
July 311%
August 314%
December 3136%YesNo
October 3117%YesNo
December 3150%YesNo
September 3019%YesNo
December 3113%YesNo
October 316%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
April 301%YesNo
Jared Kushner79%YesNo
Mark Rutte76%YesNo
Dopropillia74%YesNo
Druzkhivka38%YesNo
No Handshake97%YesNo
2–6s6%YesNo
August 3115%YesNo
July 312%YesNo
December 3123%YesNo
September 3012%YesNo
Yulia Navalnaya11%YesNo
Volodymyr Zelenskyy7%YesNo
December 3150%YesNo
November 3050%YesNo
July 311%
August 313%
September 3078%YesNo
February 281%YesNo
Nothing99%
Something1%
December 3115%YesNo
September 306%YesNo
July 317%
August 3119%
July 3190%
August 3195%
December 3129%YesNo
January 311%YesNo
December 3189%YesNo
September 3088%YesNo
July 2755%YesNo
July 2944%YesNo
No Return to Normal Traffic in 202649%YesNoDecember13%YesNo
December 3165%YesNo
October 3156%YesNo
August 1746%YesNo
August 1846%YesNo
December 3128%YesNo
October 3114%YesNo
United States1%YesNo
Italy1%YesNo
December 3114%
June 301%
December 31, 202550%YesNo
December 31, 20263%YesNo
50-7443%YesNo
75-9919%YesNo
December 3125%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
December 3145%YesNo
September 3039%YesNo
December 3140%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
August 3110%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
September 3035%
December 3166%
Iran Reconstruction Funding30%YesNo
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)29%YesNo
December 316%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
December 3110%
June 301%
60+44%YesNo
No prison time34%YesNo
August 3137%YesNo
July 315%YesNo
August 3162%YesNo
August 1530%YesNo
December 3140%YesNoSeptember 305%YesNo
July 312%YesNo
July 141%YesNo
December 3131%YesNo
August 317%YesNo
September 3023%
December 3155%
0-2098%YesNo
40-601%YesNo
July 2823%YesNo
August 122%YesNo
December 3110%YesNo
August 312%YesNo
July 312%
August 3129%
Emmanuel Macron33%YesNo
Lula da Silva30%YesNo
Mohammed bin Salman68%YesNo
Vladimir Putin31%YesNoGeopolitics markets FAQ
What do geopolitics markets cover?
Wars and military clashes, ceasefires and peace talks, sanctions, international deals, elections with global stakes, and broader shifts in power between major countries - each as a yes/no or multi-outcome market with a live probability.
How do the odds work?
Each outcome trades between 1¢ and 99¢; the price is the market's implied probability. Prices move in real time as traders react to news, so they reflect the current consensus rather than a fixed forecast.
Can I follow or test these without risk?
Yes. Polymarkets's free training mode lets you paper-trade any market with live prices and $1,000 in practice money - no card, no risk - before going to Polymarket.
