Geopolitics Prediction Markets
Geopolitics prediction markets price the world's biggest power struggles - wars, military clashes, sanctions, peace talks and international deals - as live probabilities that update with every headline.
On Polymarket these markets often carry deep liquidity around fast-moving news events and run for weeks or months. Polymarkets tracks the real prices and probabilities across active conflicts and power shifts worldwide, so you can read the crowd's view in real time, compare scenarios, and practice risk-free in training mode before trading on Polymarket.
October 3180%YesNo
November 272%YesNo
March 3163%YesNo
December 3140%YesNo
Gadi Eizenkot44%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu34%YesNo
November 199%YesNo
November 299%YesNo
June 30, 202710%YesNo
March 31, 20277%YesNo
December 3137%YesNo
November 3027%YesNo
Gadi Eizenkot92%YesNoBenjamin Netanyahu9%YesNo
December 31, 202645%YesNo
November 30, 202628%YesNo
June 30, 202728%YesNo
December 3114%YesNo
March 31, 202728%YesNo
December 3114%YesNo
No prison time38%YesNo
60+21%YesNo
Mojtaba Khamenei86%YesNo
No Head of State4%YesNo
December 318%YesNo
April 301%YesNo
December 3127%YesNo
November 3021%YesNo
December 31, 202727%YesNo
December 31, 202612%YesNo
China81%YesNo
No meeting by December 3115%YesNo
December 31, 202771%YesNo
November 30, 202768%YesNo
December 3115%YesNo
November 306%YesNo
December 3112%YesNo
November 308%YesNo
December 3112%YesNo
November 307%YesNo
November 3043%YesNo
November 1526%YesNo
December 3134%YesNo
November 3024%YesNo
June 30, 202745%YesNo
March 31, 202728%YesNo
November 3028%YesNo
December 3128%YesNo
December 3132%YesNo
September 301%YesNo
November 3038%YesNo
October 314%YesNo
Dilution of Iran's Uranium16%YesNo
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium15%YesNo
December 3131%YesNo
November 3017%YesNo
March 3165%YesNo
January 3164%YesNo
Oil ≥ $80; D Senate76%YesNo
Oil ≥ $80; R Senate24%YesNo
December 316%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
December 3194%YesNo
November 3092%YesNo
No meeting before 202794%YesNo
Turkey2%YesNo
Xi Jinping95%YesNo
Mark Carney94%YesNo
None before 202763%YesNo
Netanyahu - Israel PM14%YesNo
8+97%YesNo
73%YesNo
Nicolás Maduro85%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez11%YesNo
Xi Jinping94%YesNo
Vladimir Putin83%YesNo
Geopolitics markets FAQ
What do geopolitics markets cover?
Wars and military clashes, ceasefires and peace talks, sanctions, international deals, elections with global stakes, and broader shifts in power between major countries - each as a yes/no or multi-outcome market with a live probability.
How do the odds work?
Each outcome trades between 1¢ and 99¢; the price is the market's implied probability. Prices move in real time as traders react to news, so they reflect the current consensus rather than a fixed forecast.
Can I follow or test these without risk?
Yes. Polymarkets's free training mode lets you paper-trade any market with live prices and $1,000 in practice money - no card, no risk - before going to Polymarket.
