This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Middle East
· Iran
· World
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
$2.5M Volume
73%
Reza Pahlavi
$256.2K Volume
5%
No Head of State
$757.8K Volume
3%
Abbas Araghchi
$475.4K Volume
3%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
$425.8K Volume
2%
Hassan Rouhani
$558.5K Volume
1%
Hassan Khomeini
$1.1M Volume
1%
Alireza Arafi
$1.8M Volume
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$613.1K Volume
1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
$414.8K Volume
1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
$337.9K Volume
1%
Maryam Rajavi
$573.9K Volume
1%
Mohammad Khatami
$656.2K Volume
1%
Sadegh Larijani
$414.5K Volume
1%
Massoud Rajavi
$313.4K Volume
1%
Navid Shomali
$123.1K Volume
1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
$179K Volume
1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
$229.7K Volume
1%
Reza Pirzadeh
$66.4K Volume
1%
Ali Motahari
$137.8K Volume
1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
$134.6K Volume
1%
Saeed Jalili
$114.6K Volume
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
$446.6K Volume
1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
$267.3K Volume
1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
$137.6K Volume
1%
Mustafa Hijri
$47.5K Volume
1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
$287.9K Volume
1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
$108.7K Volume
1%
Mohsen Araki
$143.5K Volume
1%
Nasir Hosseini
$80.3K Volume
1%
Other
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Resolved 2
Mohammad Pakpour
No
Ali Larijani
$236.9K Volume
No
About This Market
AI Analysis
The prediction market regarding the leadership of Iran by the end of 2026 currently reflects a low probability of 2.8%, indicating limited investor confidence in a significant change in the country's leadership within the next few years. With a trading volume of $6.8 million, this market offers insights into the political stability of the Islamic Republic and the potential implications for regional dynamics and international relations. Understanding these probabilities can help stakeholders assess risks and opportunities in a volatile geopolitical landscape.
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