This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, โde facto holdsโ refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iranโs territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to โNo Head of Stateโ.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Iran leader end of 2026?
Middle East
Iran
World
Geopolitics
Politics
Yes Probability
3%
No Probability
97%
Trading Volume
$6.8M
Time Remaining
253 days left
Mojtaba Khamenei
$1.6M Volume
60%
Reza Pahlavi
$159.2K Volume
8%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
$174.6K Volume
5%
Hassan Rouhani
$282.6K Volume
4%
No Head of State
$372.1K Volume
3%
Abbas Araghchi
$107.4K Volume
2%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$258.5K Volume
1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
$53.9K Volume
1%
Hassan Khomeini
$744.5K Volume
1%
Alireza Arafi
$783.1K Volume
1%
Mohammad Khatami
$396.2K Volume
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
$202.2K Volume
1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
$278.2K Volume
1%
Sadegh Larijani
$179.1K Volume
1%
Maryam Rajavi
$259K Volume
1%
Navid Shomali
$56.2K Volume
1%
Saeed Jalili
$48.4K Volume
1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
$77.4K Volume
1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
$156.6K Volume
1%
Massoud Rajavi
$27.1K Volume
1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
$35.4K Volume
1%
Reza Pirzadeh
$29.7K Volume
1%
Mustafa Hijri
$22.5K Volume
1%
Ali Motahari
$53.2K Volume
1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
$37.8K Volume
1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
$69.6K Volume
1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
$49.9K Volume
1%
Mohsen Araki
$33.2K Volume
1%
Nasir Hosseini
$17.3K Volume
1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
$27K Volume
1%
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2 Options resolved
About This Market
AI Analysis
The prediction market regarding the leadership of Iran by the end of 2026 currently reflects a low probability of 2.8%, indicating limited investor confidence in a significant change in the country's leadership within the next few years. With a trading volume of $6.8 million, this market offers insights into the political stability of the Islamic Republic and the potential implications for regional dynamics and international relations. Understanding these probabilities can help stakeholders assess risks and opportunities in a volatile geopolitical landscape.