Geopolitics Prediction Markets
Geopolitics prediction markets price the world's biggest power struggles - wars, military clashes, sanctions, peace talks and international deals - as live probabilities that update with every headline.
On Polymarket these markets often carry deep liquidity around fast-moving news events and run for weeks or months. Polymarkets tracks the real prices and probabilities across active conflicts and power shifts worldwide, so you can read the crowd's view in real time, compare scenarios, and practice risk-free in training mode before trading on Polymarket.
96 active markets
June 302%
July 311%
August 3150%YesNo
August 1437%YesNo
December 31, 202661%YesNo
December 3150%YesNo
July 2899%YesNo
July 2999%YesNo
December 3113%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
June 30, 202731%YesNo
December 3122%YesNo
August 3125%YesNo
August 1513%YesNo
December 3128%YesNo
October 3118%YesNo
December 3129%YesNo
September 309%YesNo
December 3119%YesNo
September 3012%YesNo
August 317%
August 151%
December 3187%YesNo
October 3180%YesNo
June 30, 202715%YesNo
December 31, 20269%YesNo
August 3135%YesNo
August 1518%YesNo
December 3155%YesNo
July 316%YesNo
December 31, 202694%YesNo
September 30, 202687%YesNo
30+1%YesNo
80+1%YesNo
December 3111%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
December 3141%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
August 157%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
July 311%
August 313%
No meeting before 202793%YesNo
Switzerland3%YesNo
Gadi Eizenkot52%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu35%YesNo
Nicolás Maduro82%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%YesNo
December 3123%YesNo
August 3111%YesNo
December 3153%YesNo
September 3025%YesNo
Yulia Navalnaya10%YesNo
Volodymyr Zelenskyy7%YesNo
September 3099%YesNo
February 281%YesNo
August 314%
September 307%
July 999%YesNo
July 1299%YesNo
December 3157%YesNo
September 3019%YesNo
December 31, 202611%
June 30, 202732%
August 3162%YesNo
August 1530%YesNo
December 3115%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
Dopropillia75%YesNo
Druzkhivka44%YesNo
Australia2%YesNo
United States1%YesNo
No Meeting by September 3040%YesNo
Switzerland25%YesNo
July 311%
August 314%
Mojtaba Khamenei79%YesNo
No Head of State7%YesNo
December 319%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
No Handshake99%YesNo
2–6s3%YesNo
December 3124%YesNo
August 316%YesNo
August 3115%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
December 3128%YesNo
January 311%YesNo
December 3128%YesNo
October 3116%YesNo
None before 202743%YesNo
Netanyahu - Israel PM26%YesNo
July 312%
August 315%
December 3164%YesNo
October 3154%YesNo
No meeting by December 3173%YesNo
China15%YesNo
December 3124%YesNo
September 309%YesNo
Jared Kushner85%YesNo
Andy Burnham83%YesNo50-7455%YesNo
75-9923%YesNo
September 3023%
December 3160%
June 301%YesNo
April 301%YesNo
August 3113%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
December 316%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
December 319%YesNo
August 312%YesNo
Nothing99%
Something1%
August 743%YesNo
August 642%YesNo
July 311%
August 3128%
December 3136%YesNo
October 3116%YesNo
December 3113%YesNo
October 316%YesNo
December 3110%
June 301%
December 3161%YesNo
September 3038%YesNo
Rebeca Grynspan42%YesNo
Rafael Grossi41%YesNo
December 3114%
June 301%
December 31, 202550%YesNo
December 31, 20263%YesNo
December 3120%YesNo
September 3012%YesNo
August 3121%
October 3138%
December 3111%YesNo
September 304%YesNo
No Return to Normal Traffic in 202650%YesNoDecember13%YesNo
September 308%
December 3137%
Geopolitics markets FAQ
What do geopolitics markets cover?
Wars and military clashes, ceasefires and peace talks, sanctions, international deals, elections with global stakes, and broader shifts in power between major countries - each as a yes/no or multi-outcome market with a live probability.
How do the odds work?
Each outcome trades between 1¢ and 99¢; the price is the market's implied probability. Prices move in real time as traders react to news, so they reflect the current consensus rather than a fixed forecast.
Can I follow or test these without risk?
Yes. Polymarkets's free training mode lets you paper-trade any market with live prices and $1,000 in practice money - no card, no risk - before going to Polymarket.
