Geopolitics Prediction Markets
Geopolitics prediction markets price the world's biggest power struggles - wars, military clashes, sanctions, peace talks and international deals - as live probabilities that update with every headline.
On Polymarket these markets often carry deep liquidity around fast-moving news events and run for weeks or months. Polymarkets tracks the real prices and probabilities across active conflicts and power shifts worldwide, so you can read the crowd's view in real time, compare scenarios, and practice risk-free in training mode before trading on Polymarket.
102 active markets
July 2899%YesNo
July 3099%YesNo
December 31, 202661%YesNo
December 3150%YesNo
June 302%
July 311%
August 3149%YesNo
August 1440%YesNo
December 3115%YesNo
September 308%YesNo
June 30, 202731%YesNo
December 3122%YesNo
August 3133%YesNo
August 1527%YesNo
December 3121%YesNo
September 3016%YesNo
December 3128%YesNo
October 3117%YesNo
August 317%
August 151%
December 3129%YesNo
September 309%YesNo
December 3187%YesNo
October 3180%YesNo
September 3053%YesNo
August 3132%YesNo
June 30, 202715%YesNo
December 31, 20269%YesNo
August 1513%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
December 3155%YesNo
July 315%YesNo
December 31, 202694%YesNo
September 30, 202687%YesNo
July 311%
August 313%
30+1%YesNo
80+1%YesNo
December 3141%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
December 3112%YesNo
September 306%YesNo
December 3123%YesNo
August 3121%YesNo
December 3157%YesNo
September 3025%YesNo
Nicolás Maduro82%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%YesNo
Yulia Navalnaya10%YesNo
Volodymyr Zelenskyy7%YesNo
Gadi Eizenkot52%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu35%YesNo
September 3099%YesNo
February 281%YesNo
August 314%
September 307%
No meeting before 202793%YesNo
Switzerland3%YesNo
July 999%YesNo
July 1299%YesNo
December 3155%YesNo
September 3019%YesNo
December 31, 202611%
June 30, 202732%
No Meeting by September 3041%YesNo
Switzerland24%YesNo
August 3121%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
December 3116%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
Australia2%YesNo
United States1%YesNo
July 311%
August 314%
Mojtaba Khamenei79%YesNo
No Head of State9%YesNo
No Handshake99%YesNo
2–6s3%YesNo
December 3110%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
Mohammed bin Salman4%YesNo
Kim Jong Un1%YesNo
Dopropillia75%YesNo
Druzkhivka48%YesNo
December 3128%YesNo
January 311%YesNo
December 3128%YesNo
October 3116%YesNo
July 312%
August 315%
None before 202743%YesNo
Netanyahu - Israel PM26%YesNo
No Return to Normal Traffic in 202651%YesNoDecember14%YesNo
December 3164%YesNo
October 3154%YesNo
December 3123%YesNo
September 309%YesNo
No meeting by December 3172%YesNo
China15%YesNo
Jared Kushner85%YesNo
Andy Burnham75%YesNo50-7455%YesNo
75-9922%YesNo
September 3022%
December 3160%
June 301%YesNo
April 301%YesNo
August 3113%YesNo
July 312%YesNo
Nothing99%
Something1%
December 319%YesNo
August 312%YesNo
December 3123%YesNo
October 3111%YesNo
July 311%
August 3134%
August 743%YesNo
August 642%YesNo
December 3113%YesNo
October 316%YesNo
December 319%
June 301%
December 3114%
June 301%
December 3136%YesNo
October 3116%YesNo
December 31, 202550%YesNo
December 31, 20263%YesNo
December 3160%YesNo
September 3038%YesNo
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 202620%
August 3123%
October 3138%
December 3120%YesNo
September 3012%YesNo
August 3128%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
December 3111%YesNo
September 304%YesNo
↑ $4.2559%YesNo
↓ $3.9048%YesNo
Geopolitics markets FAQ
What do geopolitics markets cover?
Wars and military clashes, ceasefires and peace talks, sanctions, international deals, elections with global stakes, and broader shifts in power between major countries - each as a yes/no or multi-outcome market with a live probability.
How do the odds work?
Each outcome trades between 1¢ and 99¢; the price is the market's implied probability. Prices move in real time as traders react to news, so they reflect the current consensus rather than a fixed forecast.
Can I follow or test these without risk?
Yes. Polymarkets's free training mode lets you paper-trade any market with live prices and $1,000 in practice money - no card, no risk - before going to Polymarket.
