This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Iran Nuke before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 6%, while No trades at 94%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Iran Nuke before 2027?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 6% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Iran Nuke before 2027 market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (162 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Iran Nuke before 2027?
Traders have put $65.3K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Iran Nuke before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
Similar Markets
No Meeting by September 3025%YesNo
Pakistan23%YesNo
Dilution of Iran's Uranium35%YesNo
Iran Reconstruction Funding31%YesNo
December 3114%YesNo
October 317%YesNo
