Trump Prediction Markets

Trump prediction markets are among Polymarket's most active — tenure, legal proceedings, foreign policy (Ukraine, China, Middle East), domestic policy, and general approval. Volumes exceed hundreds of millions of dollars.

These markets react strongly to every major statement — via Truth Social, interviews, or White House announcements. Real-time news coverage creates trading opportunities.

40 active markets
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
26%
chance
Yes No
$618.7K Volume 31/12
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?
August 3197%YesNo
July 3196%YesNo
$833.7K Volume Ends today
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
August 3156%YesNo
August 1538%YesNo
$1M Volume 31/08
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%YesNo
$94.3M Volume 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 1512%YesNo
July 313%YesNo
$8.2M Volume 7 days left
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
34%
chance
Yes No
$2.7M Volume 01/01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%YesNo
October 3119%YesNo
$5.7M Volume 31/12
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
10%
chance
Yes No
$88.1K Volume 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3142%YesNo
August 1526%YesNo
$47.6K Volume 7 days left
Trump out as President by July 31? Trump out as President by July 31?
1%
chance
Yes No
$50.4K Volume 7 days left
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3118%YesNo
July 312%YesNo
$1.2M Volume 7 days left
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+14%YesNo
40+6%YesNo
$26.7K Volume 7 days left
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3032%YesNo
Switzerland25%YesNo
$24.9K Volume 30/09
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 3113%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
$28.7M Volume 31/12
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31, 202550%YesNo
December 3125%YesNo
$3.1M Volume 31/12
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
chance
Yes No
$18.9K Volume 31/12
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3125%YesNo
October 3114%YesNo
$904.4K Volume 31/12
Who will Trump meet with in July?Who will Trump meet with in July?
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu95%YesNo
Elon MuskElon Musk10%YesNo
$17.3K Volume 7 days left
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3169%YesNo
ChinaChina16%YesNo
$15.7K Volume 31/12
What will Trump say during tribute to Lindsey Graham?What will Trump say during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
Air Force / Space Force81%YesNo
Patriot80%YesNo
$12.6K Volume 4 days left
What will Trump say during remarks in Michigan?What will Trump say during remarks in Michigan?
Afford / Affordable / Affordability91%YesNo
Trump 5+ times87%YesNo
$12.5K Volume 3 days left
What will Trump say this week? (July 20 - July 26)What will Trump say this week? (July 20 - July 26)
Ukraine55%YesNo
Uranium41%YesNo
$13.1K Volume 2 days left
What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?
Balance Sheet85%YesNo
Central Bank82%YesNo
$8.9K Volume 5 days left
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
17%
chance
Yes No
$1.5M Volume 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3114%YesNo
October 317%YesNo
$17.4M Volume 31/12
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027?
9%
chance
Yes No
$7.5K Volume 31/12
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
9%
chance
Yes No
$7.5K Volume 31/12
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?
1%
chance
Yes No
$6.9K Volume 6 days left
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
8%
chance
Yes No
$51.4K Volume 31/12
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
July 319%YesNo
April 301%YesNo
$6.4M Volume Ends today
Kash Patel out by...?Kash Patel out by...?
December 3132%YesNo
July 312%YesNo
$1.6M Volume
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Stefan BrodieStefan Brodie51%YesNo
Donald BrodieDonald Brodie39%YesNo
$381.2K Volume 31/12
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
1%
chance
Yes No
$8K Volume 6 days left
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31? Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?
2%
chance
Yes No
$4K Volume 7 days left
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
3%
chance
Yes No
$3.8K Volume 31/12
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 3110%
August 3135%
$70.1K Volume 31/08
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday? Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?
26%
chance
Yes No
$3.5K Volume 4 days left
Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
Delcy Rodríguez92%YesNo
María Corina Machado4%YesNo
$339.1K Volume 31/12
Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?
December 31, 20265%
June 30, 20279%
$5K Volume 31/12
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
25%
chance
Yes No
$8K Volume 31/12
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Trump Markets FAQ

Which Trump markets are live now?

Annual approval, specific policy outcomes, legal proceedings, international negotiation outcomes, and senior-appointment decisions.

What moves prices?

Trump statements (especially Truth Social), official White House announcements, court rulings, and Congressional action. Reactions are very fast.

How do I manage risk in Trump markets?

High volatility — build positions gradually, avoid over-concentration in a single market, and check order-book depth before entering.

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