BTC $113,247 ▲2.31% ETH $3,847 ▲1.84% SOL $284 ▲4.12% SPX 5,847 ▼0.43% TRUMP-PARDON-HUNTER 67¢ +4 BTC-120K-EOY 43¢ −2 FED-50BP-Q3 64¢ +8 NBA-FINALS Game 7 Thunder 42¢ HAMAS-CEASEFIRE-Q3 31¢ +1 NEWSOM-2028 54¢ +13 IRAN-ISRAEL-DIRECT 18¢ +11 ETH-ETF-STAKING 71¢ +3 BTC $113,247 ▲2.31% ETH $3,847 ▲1.84% SOL $284 ▲4.12% SPX 5,847 ▼0.43% TRUMP-PARDON-HUNTER 67¢ +4 BTC-120K-EOY 43¢ −2 FED-50BP-Q3 64¢ +8 NBA-FINALS Game 7 Thunder 42¢ HAMAS-CEASEFIRE-Q3 31¢ +1 NEWSOM-2028 54¢ +13

Trump Prediction Markets

Trump prediction markets are among Polymarket's most active — tenure, legal proceedings, foreign policy (Ukraine, China, Middle East), domestic policy, and general approval. Volumes exceed hundreds of millions of dollars.

These markets react strongly to every major statement — via Truth Social, interviews, or White House announcements. Real-time news coverage creates trading opportunities.

9 active markets
Politics Elections Trump Ukraine War Putin
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 31
Yes 69¢No 31¢
October 31
Yes 57¢No 43¢
$266.1M Volume 31/12
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
July 31July 31
Yes 61¢No 39¢
June 30June 30
Yes 43¢No 57¢
$27M Volume
Will Alberta join the US? Will Alberta join the US?
4%
chance
Yes 4¢ No 96¢
$2.1M Volume 31/12
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
July 31
Yes 57¢No 43¢
June 30
Yes 34¢No 66¢
$29.6M Volume 30/06
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
July 31
Yes 49¢No 51¢
June 30
Yes 35¢No 65¢
$209.4K Volume Ends today
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%
chance
Yes 17¢ No 83¢
$203.9K Volume 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yes 34¢No 66¢
Gadi Eizenkot
Yes 28¢No 72¢
$14.1M Volume 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31
Yes 47¢No 53¢
October 31
Yes 26¢No 74¢
$3.4M Volume 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31
Yes 20¢No 80¢
June 30
Yes 3¢No 97¢
$25.4M Volume 31/12
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Trump Markets FAQ

Which Trump markets are live now?

Annual approval, specific policy outcomes, legal proceedings, international negotiation outcomes, and senior-appointment decisions.

What moves prices?

Trump statements (especially Truth Social), official White House announcements, court rulings, and Congressional action. Reactions are very fast.

How do I manage risk in Trump markets?

High volatility — build positions gradually, avoid over-concentration in a single market, and check order-book depth before entering.

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