Trump Prediction Markets

Trump prediction markets are among Polymarket's most active - tenure, legal proceedings, foreign policy (Ukraine, China, Middle East), domestic policy, and general approval. Volumes exceed hundreds of millions of dollars.

These markets react strongly to every major statement - via Truth Social, interviews, or White House announcements. Real-time news coverage creates trading opportunities.

333 active markets
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 3178%YesNo
November 274%YesNo
$5M Volume 01/01
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4756%YesNo
4814%YesNo
$5.8M Volume Ends today
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 3163%YesNo
December 3140%YesNo
$46.6M Volume 01/01
Fed Decision in December?Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase73%YesNo
No change26%YesNo
$681.2K Volume 10/12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18%
chance
Yes No
$427.2K Volume 01/01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 3137%YesNo
November 3026%YesNo
$3.3M Volume 01/01
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 202645%YesNo
November 30, 202628%YesNo
$164.2K Volume 31/12
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
5%
chance
Yes No
$131K Volume 01/01
What foods will Trump mention in October?What foods will Trump mention in October?
Beef99%YesNo
Milk99%YesNo
$124.7K Volume Ends today
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time38%YesNo
60+21%YesNo
$1.1M Volume 01/01
Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?
July 171%
December 3124%
$410.3K Volume 01/01
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 318%YesNo
April 301%YesNo
$29.8M Volume 01/01
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 3127%YesNo
November 3021%YesNo
$3.6M Volume Ends today
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 31, 202722%YesNo
December 31, 202612%YesNo
$2.4M Volume 01/01
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
ChinaChina81%YesNo
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3115%YesNo
$60K Volume 01/01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 202771%YesNo
November 30, 202768%YesNo
$10.3M Volume 01/07
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3115%YesNo
November 306%YesNo
$13.1M Volume 03/01
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
4%
chance
Yes No
$50K Volume 01/01
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 19045%YesNo
190-19416%YesNo
$609.4K Volume Ends today
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
5%
chance
Yes No
$44.6K Volume 01/01
Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)
48+44%YesNo
4617%YesNo
$69.5K Volume Ends today
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
December 3130%YesNo
November 3028%YesNo
$466.3K Volume 01/01
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
1%
chance
Yes No
$356.4K Volume Ends today
Next Press Secretary announced by...?Next Press Secretary announced by...?
December 3163%YesNo
November 3035%YesNo
$917.4K Volume 01/01
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
3%
chance
Yes No
$24.8M Volume 01/01
US imports Russian diesel by...?US imports Russian diesel by...?
March 3165%YesNo
January 3164%YesNo
$868.3K Volume 01/04
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
99%
chance
Yes No
$1.4M Volume 01/01
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%YesNo
Qatar / UAEQatar / UAE2%YesNo
$25.6K Volume 01/01
Who will Trump pardon before 2027?Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
Donald BrodieDonald Brodie21%YesNo
Elon MuskElon Musk14%YesNo
$598.9K Volume 01/01
Who will Trump speak to by November 30?Who will Trump speak to by November 30?
Xi JinpingXi Jinping95%YesNo
Mark CarneyMark Carney94%YesNo
$26.7K Volume 01/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro85%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez11%YesNo
$99.3M Volume 01/01
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 316%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
$18.5M Volume 01/01
Who will Trump meet with by November 30?Who will Trump meet with by November 30?
Xi JinpingXi Jinping94%YesNo
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin83%YesNo
$25.7K Volume 01/12
US imposes new sanctions on China by...?US imposes new sanctions on China by...?
October 31, 202692%
November 3029%
$18.1K Volume 01/12
Fed Decision in January?Fed Decision in January?
No change70%YesNo
25 bps increase25%YesNo
$681.2K Volume 28/01
Next Press Secretary?Next Press Secretary?
Anna KellyAnna Kelly20%YesNo
Rachel Campos-DuffyRachel Campos-Duffy19%YesNo
$362.5K Volume 01/01
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
2%
chance
Yes No
$11M Volume 01/01
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026? Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?
25%
chance
Yes No
$105.1K Volume 01/01
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
36%
chance
Yes No
$19.3K Volume 01/01
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
2%
chance
Yes No
$10.7K Volume 01/01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
3%
chance
Yes No
$496.4K Volume Ends today
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
No Meeting by December 3154%YesNo
Qatar16%YesNo
$9.1K Volume 31/12
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
November 397%YesNo
November 1693%YesNo
$9.1K Volume 01/12
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31, 202753%YesNo
March 31, 202724%YesNo
$3.3M Volume 31/12
Who will Trump publicly insult by November 30?Who will Trump publicly insult by November 30?
Barack ObamaBarack Obama99%YesNo
Ilhan OmarIlhan Omar97%YesNo
$8.8K Volume 01/12
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
December 3191%YesNo
November 3061%YesNo
$7.3K Volume 01/12
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman84%YesNo
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin83%YesNo
$25.7K Volume 01/01
Will Trump be impeached by...?Will Trump be impeached by...?
December 31, 202765%YesNo
June 30, 202746%YesNo
$6K Volume 01/01
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Trump Markets FAQ

Which Trump markets are live now?

Annual approval, specific policy outcomes, legal proceedings, international negotiation outcomes, and senior-appointment decisions.

What moves prices?

Trump statements (especially Truth Social), official White House announcements, court rulings, and Congressional action. Reactions are very fast.

How do I manage risk in Trump markets?

High volatility - build positions gradually, avoid over-concentration in a single market, and check order-book depth before entering.

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