This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count.
Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Past
July 31
$22.3K Volume
14%
Resolved 1
June 30
$3.4K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by?
The market prices Yes at only 13%, with No at 87%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 13% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Jul 2026 (10 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by?
$20.2K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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