Military Strikes · Politics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

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$112.6K Volume

01/01/2027 04:59

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes is priced at 18% and No at 83%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.

What do traders predict for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Traders currently imply a 18% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (59 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Total traded volume on this market is $112.6K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027 on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.