Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

The prediction market on whether the U.S. will invade Iran before 2027 currently shows a 33.0% probability, reflecting a significant level of uncertainty regarding U.S. military intentions in the region. With a trading volume of $13.5 million, this market serves as a barometer for geopolitical sentiment, highlighting investor concerns over potential conflicts and their implications for global stability. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for stakeholders monitoring U.S. foreign policy and its impact on international relations.