Tech & Science Markets
20 active markets
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31
Yes 22¢No 78¢
September 30
Yes 15¢No 85¢
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
14–16
Yes 30¢No 70¢
17–19
Yes 27¢No 73¢
How many SpaceX launches in April?
12
Yes 55¢No 45¢
≤11
Yes 27¢No 73¢
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Jacob Tsimerman
Yes 75¢No 25¢
Hong Wang
Yes 70¢No 30¢
How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?
8+
Yes 95¢No 5¢
7
Yes 4¢No 96¢
SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Strikes)
2.0T+
Yes 56¢No 44¢
1.8T–2.0T
Yes 15¢No 85¢
Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?
1750
Yes 99¢No 1¢
1800
Yes 24¢No 76¢
How many Tornadoes in the US in April?
200–229
Yes 29¢No 71¢
230–259
Yes 24¢No 76¢
Precipitation in Hong Kong in April?
190mm+
Yes 39¢No 61¢
<130mm
Yes 31¢No 69¢
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
3%
chance
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0
Yes 53¢No 47¢
1
Yes 37¢No 63¢
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes April 20 - April 26?
>9
Yes 76¢No 24¢
9
Yes 11¢No 89¢
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes April 20 - 26?
1
Yes 57¢No 43¢
2
Yes 29¢No 71¢
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
10%
chance
Yes
10¢
No
90¢
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
SpaceXYes 91¢No 9¢
AnthropicYes 3¢No 97¢
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
2
Yes 54¢No 46¢
1
Yes 38¢No 62¢
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
Yes 3¢No 97¢
Super Heavy booster explodes?
Yes 2¢No 98¢
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
↑2k
Yes 97¢No 3¢
↑3k
Yes 70¢No 30¢
April 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC
Yes 55¢No 45¢
1.20–1.24ºC
Yes 22¢No 78¢
FDA approves Sanofi's Dupixent?
80%
chance
Yes
80¢
No
20¢