Iran leadership change by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market focused on a potential leadership change in Iran currently shows a low probability of 0.1%, reflecting traders' skepticism about the likelihood of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stepping down or being ousted before the market's resolution date. With a trading volume of $9.6 million, this market highlights the significant interest in Iran's political stability and the implications of leadership transitions in a region marked by geopolitical tensions. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors and analysts monitoring Middle Eastern affairs and their global impact.