This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
July 31
$634.2K Volume
5%
August 31
$152 Volume
9%
September 30
$64.4K Volume
17%
December 31
$3.4M Volume
27%
June 30, 2027
$95.4K Volume
38%
Resolved 5
March 31
$3.2M Volume
No
April 30
$5M Volume
No
May 31
$3.4M Volume
No
June 30
$4.4M Volume
No
March 13
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Iran leadership change by?
Even the leader is cheap - June 30, 2027 trades at 38%, December 31 at 27%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for Iran leadership change by?
No strong consensus yet: June 30, 2027 tops the implied probabilities at just 38%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Iran leadership change by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (162 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Iran leadership change by?
Traders have put $20.2M through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Iran leadership change by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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