Market storylines

The biggest prediction markets of the last two years, annotated. Every chart is a closed market - frozen at resolution, never chasing live data.

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No Deal, No Ceasefire: US-Iran Market Resolves No After $280M Bet on Diplomatic Silence

A brief military flare-up, unilateral de-escalation, and deliberate face-saving by both governments left Polymarket's strict ceasefire criteria unmet by June 30, 2026.

2026-06-21 $280.1M volume