Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

The prediction market on whether the U.S. will confirm the existence of aliens currently shows a 21.0% probability, reflecting a growing public interest in extraterrestrial life amid recent government disclosures. With a trading volume of $27.1 million, this market highlights the potential implications of such a confirmation on national security, scientific inquiry, and public perception. As discussions around unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) gain traction, the outcome of this market could significantly influence future policy and research initiatives.