Iran Prediction Markets

Iran prediction markets track critical developments: nuclear enrichment, IAEA reports, nuclear-deal negotiations, sanctions imposed or lifted, and regional events. Prices move in real time reacting to news out of Sinai, Vienna and Tehran.

These markets typically have strong liquidity around news events and longer expirations (months to a year), enabling dynamic trading.

25 active markets
Politics Crypto Sports Weather Geopolitics Tech Tech & Science Pop Culture Business Middle East
View Iran markets on Polymarket
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 31
Yes 96¢No 4¢
October 31
Yes 95¢No 5¢
$322.7M Volume 31/12
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?
July 31July 31
Yes 99¢No 1¢
June 15June 15
Yes 99¢No 1¢
$54.7M Volume
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
July 31
Yes 99¢No 1¢
June 21
Yes 99¢No 1¢
$34.8M Volume 30/06
Iran closes its airspace by...?
Iran closes its airspace by...?
December 31
Yes 35¢No 65¢
August 31
Yes 25¢No 75¢
$3.6M Volume
Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by...?
June 30
Yes 7¢No 93¢
June 14
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$16.2M Volume Ends today
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
32%
chance
Yes 32¢ No 68¢
$3.1M Volume 30/06
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
1%
chance
Yes 1¢ No 99¢
$1.1M Volume 30/06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
1%
chance
Yes 1¢ No 99¢
$3.1M Volume Ends today
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
79%
chance
Yes 79¢ No 21¢
$889.9K Volume 30/06
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31
Yes 8¢No 92¢
July 31
Yes 6¢No 94¢
$54.8M Volume Ends today
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
11%
chance
Yes 11¢ No 89¢
$574.7K Volume 31/12
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
June 30
Yes 92¢No 8¢
July 31
Yes 84¢No 16¢
$544K Volume Ends today
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
July 31
Yes 32¢No 68¢
June 30
Yes 27¢No 73¢
$4.2M Volume Ends today
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
63%
chance
Yes 63¢ No 37¢
$3.1M Volume 31/07
Iran leader end of 2026?
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
Yes 80¢No 20¢
Reza Pahlavi
Yes 5¢No 95¢
$15.2M Volume 31/12
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by June 30?
Oil Sanction ReliefOil Sanction Relief
Yes 81¢No 19¢
Unfreeze Iranian AssetsUnfreeze Iranian Assets
Yes 67¢No 33¢
$348.1K Volume 30/06
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Switzerland
Yes 74¢No 26¢
No Meeting by June 30
Yes 7¢No 93¢
$334.9K Volume 30/06
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by...?
June 30
Yes 8¢No 92¢
June 15
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$3.2M Volume 30/06
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
33%
chance
Yes 33¢ No 67¢
$289K Volume 30/06
FIFWC16/06 01:00
New Zealand0-0-0
IR Iran0-0-0
20.0¢nzl28.0¢Draw50.0¢irn
3 markets$260.7K
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Bahrain
Yes 46¢No 54¢
United States
Yes 34¢No 66¢
$242.3K Volume 30/06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
91%
chance
Yes 91¢ No 9¢
$3.1M Volume 31/12
US and Iran sign an agreement by...?
US and Iran sign an agreement by...?
July 31
Yes 97¢No 3¢
June 30
Yes 88¢No 12¢
$291.3K Volume 31/07
US x Russia military clash by...?
US x Russia military clash by...?
December 31, 2026
Yes 6¢No 94¢
June 30, 2026
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$1.3M Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
July 31
Yes 20¢No 80¢
June 30
Yes 10¢No 90¢
$7.9M Volume Ends today
Load more on Polymarket →

Want to trade Iran markets?

Open a Polymarket account and start trading today

Open a Polymarket Account

Affiliate link - we may earn a commission. Verify availability in your jurisdiction. Not investment advice.

Iran Markets FAQ

What Iran markets exist on Polymarket?

Nuclear markets (will Iran reach 90% enrichment?), sanctions (will sanction X be lifted by date Y?), diplomacy (will a deal be signed?), and military conflict markets.

What moves Iran market prices?

Probabilities come from live order-book depth. IAEA reports, statements from Tehran or Washington, and major media coverage can move prices within minutes.

Can I trade during regional escalations?

Yes. Polymarket stays live with notably higher volume during tensions. Trading geopolitical markets requires tight risk management.

Start Polymarket Training For Free
Trade prediction markets with virtual money. Real prices, zero risk. Compete on the leaderboard.
$1K
500+
$0
Learn more