Iran Prediction Markets

Iran prediction markets track critical developments: nuclear enrichment, IAEA reports, nuclear-deal negotiations, sanctions imposed or lifted, and regional events. Prices move in real time reacting to news out of Sinai, Vienna and Tehran.

These markets typically have strong liquidity around news events and longer expirations (months to a year), enabling dynamic trading.

51 active markets
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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3150%YesNo
August 1437%YesNo
$8.9M Volume 31/08
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2899%YesNo
July 2999%YesNo
$12.2M Volume 31/08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
$68.9M Volume Ends today
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202731%YesNo
December 3122%YesNo
$21.7M Volume 31/12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
24%
chance
Yes No
$279.6K Volume 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3125%YesNo
August 1513%YesNo
$25.6M Volume Ends today
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3129%YesNo
September 309%YesNo
$12.1M Volume 31/08
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3119%YesNo
September 3012%YesNo
$8.9M Volume Ends today
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$530.3K Volume 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3187%YesNo
October 3180%YesNo
$2.1M Volume 31/08
Iran full airspace closure by...?Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 3153%YesNo
September 3040%YesNo
$7.1M Volume 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
17%
chance
Yes No
$530.3K Volume 30/09
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%YesNo
August 1518%YesNo
$86.4K Volume Ends today
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+1%YesNo
80+1%YesNo
$59.3K Volume Ends today
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
9%
chance
Yes No
$82.9K Volume 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3111%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
$8.2M Volume Ends today
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 157%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
$8.6M Volume Ends today
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$681.6K Volume 31/08
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3123%YesNo
August 3111%YesNo
$1.7M Volume Ends today
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
3%
chance
Yes No
$82.9K Volume 30/09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
51%
chance
Yes No
$530.3K Volume 31/12
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$269.3K Volume 30/09
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 999%YesNo
July 1299%YesNo
$2.7M Volume Ends today
Crude Oil all time high by...?Crude Oil all time high by...?
December 3115%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
$2.2M Volume 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Australia2%YesNo
United States1%YesNo
$14.1K Volume Ends today
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3040%YesNo
Switzerland25%YesNo
$13.3K Volume 30/09
Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31? Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?
98%
chance
Yes No
$26.2K Volume Ends today
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$235.4K Volume 31/08
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%YesNo
No Head of State7%YesNo
$37.4M Volume 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
$29M Volume 31/12
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
48%
chance
Yes No
$851.2K Volume 20/08
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3124%YesNo
August 316%YesNo
$962.5K Volume
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
$1.3M Volume Ends today
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%YesNo
October 3116%YesNo
$244.3K Volume 31/12
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 312%
August 315%
$84.3K Volume 31/08
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3164%YesNo
October 3154%YesNo
$1.4M Volume 31/08
Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf1%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu1%YesNo
$2M Volume Ends today
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
chance
Yes No
$82.1K Volume 30/09
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3124%YesNo
September 309%YesNo
$6.1M Volume Ends today
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?
50-7455%YesNo
75-9923%YesNo
$16K Volume 3 days left
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%YesNo
April 301%YesNo
$12.2M Volume Ends today
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3113%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
$488.5K Volume Ends today
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$21.7M Volume Ends today
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 319%YesNo
August 312%YesNo
$882.1K Volume 31/12
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 743%YesNo
August 642%YesNo
$7K Volume 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 311%
August 3128%
$105.7K Volume 31/08
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%YesNo
October 316%YesNo
$17.6M Volume 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 3114%
June 301%
$2.1M Volume 31/12
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202650%YesNo
December13%YesNo
$163.4K Volume 31/12
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
25%
chance
Yes No
$18.8K Volume 31/12
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
21%
chance
Yes No
$10.8K Volume 31/12
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Iran Markets FAQ

What Iran markets exist on Polymarket?

Nuclear markets (will Iran reach 90% enrichment?), sanctions (will sanction X be lifted by date Y?), diplomacy (will a deal be signed?), and military conflict markets.

What moves Iran market prices?

Probabilities come from live order-book depth. IAEA reports, statements from Tehran or Washington, and major media coverage can move prices within minutes.

Can I trade during regional escalations?

Yes. Polymarket stays live with notably higher volume during tensions. Trading geopolitical markets requires tight risk management.

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