Elections Prediction Markets
Election markets are Polymarket's core - US presidential, party primaries, congressional races, and any major democracy's vote. The 2024 US election markets booked billions in volume.
Pricing blends polls, party finance data, economic indicators and reporting - all distilled into one price. Rich trading ground for both analysts and opinion-driven investors.
116 active markets
JD Vance20%YesNo
Marco Rubio13%YesNo
July 2899%YesNo
July 2999%YesNo
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva64%YesNo
Flávio Bolsonaro24%YesNo
Gavin Newsom19%YesNo
Jon Ossoff14%YesNo
Republican Party56%YesNo
Democratic Party44%YesNo
Democrats Sweep45%YesNo
R Senate, D House43%YesNo
United Russia (ER)62%YesNo
New People (NL)32%YesNoJ.D. Vance43%YesNoMarco Rubio28%YesNo
Marine Le Pen30%YesNo
Édouard Philippe26%YesNo
Nigel Farage97%YesNo
Count Binface2%YesNo
Donavan McKinney84%YesNo
Shri Thanedar17%YesNo
December 3141%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
Gadi Eizenkot52%YesNo
Benjamin Netanyahu35%YesNo
Abdul El-Sayed96%YesNo
Haley Stevens3%YesNo
Darline Graham Nordone63%YesNo
Ralph Norman31%YesNo
BN74%YesNo
PH27%YesNo
Xavier Becerra93%YesNo
Steve Hilton6%YesNoCount Binface79%YesNo
William Clouston8%YesNo
Wesley Bell71%YesNo
Cori Bush29%YesNo
Republican Party93%YesNo
Democratic Party6%YesNo
Alberto Núñez Feijóo80%YesNo
Pedro Sánchez9%YesNo
Byron Donalds97%YesNo
James Fishback2%YesNo
Abdul El-Sayed63%YesNoHaley Stevens37%YesNo
Democratic Party84%YesNo
Republican Party16%YesNoEl-Sayed 15–20%33%YesNo
El-Sayed 10–15%29%YesNo
Haley Stevens58%YesNoAbdul El-Sayed43%YesNo
Likud61%YesNo
Yashar32%YesNo
Republican Party85%YesNo
Democratic Party16%YesNo
Flávio Bolsonaro78%YesNo
Renan Santos9%YesNo
Thom Tillis82%YesNo
Jerry Moran55%YesNo
Mike Lindell73%YesNo
Lisa Demuth25%YesNo
John James94%YesNo
Perry Johnson6%YesNo
Pete Fry25%YesNo
Ken Sim24%YesNoPete Fry25%YesNoKen Sim24%YesNoRepublican Party58%YesNo
Democratic Party41%YesNo
Republican Party83%YesNo
Democratic Party16%YesNo
Christina Hines89%YesNo
Eric Chung6%YesNo
Republican Party84%YesNo
Democratic Party15%YesNo
Mo Ivory97%YesNo
Eric J. Tatum2%YesNo
Democratic60%YesNo
Republican41%YesNo
Ralph Norman50%YesNoDarline Graham Nordone37%YesNo
Republican Party81%YesNo
Democratic Party16%YesNo
Democrat90%YesNoRepublican10%YesNo
Nate Pollnow81%YesNo
Jay Schroeder10%YesNo
Republican Party87%YesNo
Democratic Party13%YesNo
Ty Masterson84%YesNo
Philip Sarnecki15%YesNoRepublican Party91%YesNo
Democratic Party8%YesNo
Cleitinho Azevedo43%YesNo
Mateus Simões24%YesNoDemocratic Party89%YesNoRepublican Party10%YesNo
Democratic Party97%YesNo
Republican Party2%YesNo
Tom Begich29%YesNo
Bernadette Wilson29%YesNoRepublican Party88%YesNo
Democratic Party10%YesNo
Abdul El-Sayed79%YesNoHaley Stevens22%YesNo
Republican Party83%YesNo
Democratic Party16%YesNo
Democratic Party77%YesNoRepublican Party24%YesNo
Democratic Party93%YesNo
Republican Party6%YesNo
Democratic Party95%YesNo
Republican Party6%YesNo
Hakainde Hichilema88%YesNo
Brian Mundubile12%YesNo
Milakulo Tukumuli99%YesNo
Pierre Chanel Tutugoro1%YesNoDemocratic Party94%YesNo
Republican Party6%YesNo
Republican Party94%YesNo
Democratic Party7%YesNo
Republican Party69%YesNo
Democratic Party31%YesNo
United Russia (ER)97%YesNoNew People (NL)1%YesNo
Democratic Party95%YesNo
Republican Party5%YesNo
Ken Paxton (R)52%YesNo
James Talarico (D)50%YesNo
Botond Fülöp25%YesNo
Adrienn Laczó22%YesNo
Joy Powers60%YesNo
Adam Murphy37%YesNoRepublican Party88%YesNo
Democratic Party10%YesNo
Republican88%YesNoDemocrat13%YesNo
Francesca Hong96%YesNo
David Crowley3%YesNo
United Russia99%YesNo
Communists of Russia1%YesNo
Cindy Holscher93%YesNo
Ethan Corson8%YesNo
Ülle Madise62%YesNo
Jonatan Vseviov15%YesNoMcKinney 16%+31%YesNo
McKinney 8–12%20%YesNo
Democratic Party94%YesNo
Republican Party6%YesNo
Joe Strada64%YesNo
Carey Baker32%YesNo
Braeden Caley98%YesNo
Stephen Curran1%YesNoRepublican Party85%YesNo
Democratic Party15%YesNo
Republican Party94%YesNo
Democratic Party7%YesNo
Bell <4%25%YesNo
Bush 4–8%21%YesNo
Binface 10–20%35%YesNo
Binface 20–30%31%YesNo
Republican Party94%YesNo
Democratic Party6%YesNo
Democratic Party94%YesNo
Republican Party6%YesNo
Randy Fine96%YesNo
Dan Bilzerian1%YesNo
Republican Party81%YesNo
Democratic Party17%YesNo
Republican Party87%YesNo
Democratic Party13%YesNo
20-2429%YesNo
25-2928%YesNo
Jeremy Moss89%YesNo
Aisha Farooqi9%YesNoRepublican Party93%YesNo
Democratic Party7%YesNo
Esteban "Steve" Guerra92%YesNo
Mauro Garza7%YesNo
Democratic Party94%YesNo
Republican Party5%YesNo
Republican Party83%YesNo
Democratic Party17%YesNo
2–366%YesNo
4–533%YesNo
Shannon Taylor98%YesNo
Salaam Bhatti1%YesNo
Democratic Party91%YesNoRepublican Party9%YesNo
Jerônimo Rodrigues55%YesNo
ACM Neto46%YesNoDemocratic Party94%YesNo
Republican Party2%YesNo
Republican Party94%YesNo
Democratic Party4%YesNo
Flanagan 15–20%25%YesNo
Flanagan 10–15%24%YesNo
Republican Party87%YesNo
Democratic Party12%YesNo
Democratic Party93%YesNo
Republican Party7%YesNo
Republican Party87%YesNo
Democratic Party11%YesNo
Democratic Party94%YesNo
Republican Party4%YesNo
Republican Party91%YesNo
Democratic Party10%YesNo
Javier Milei54%YesNo
Axel Kicillof40%YesNo
Democratic Party86%YesNoRepublican Party14%YesNoDemocratic Party97%YesNo
Republican Party2%YesNo
Hong 30%+63%YesNo
Hong 25–30%13%YesNo
Adam Hamilton95%YesNo
Christy Davis2%YesNo
Ohio (Special)76%YesNo
Michigan75%YesNo
Republican Party93%YesNo
Democratic Party8%YesNo
Republican Party95%YesNo
Democratic Party6%YesNo
Elections Markets FAQ
Why are election markets accurate?
They require 'skin in the game' - people put money on their views, filtering out low-quality noise. The larger the volume, the more reliable the price.
Which election markets are live now?
US 2028, Israel (by date), UK and EU local elections, plus party primaries. Follow our page for updates.
How do I price risk in election markets?
Check liquidity (order-book depth), historical volatility, and decision date. Thin-liquidity markets are prone to inefficient pricing.
