This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
Yes is the outsider here at 1%, while No trades at 99%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 1%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Jul 2026 (7 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
Traders have put $2.9K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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