China Prediction Markets

China prediction markets on Polymarket cover the country's central scenarios: the Taiwan question, trade and tariff policy, foreign relations, and macroeconomic developments. Prices are set in real time based on order-book depth, not a headline.

These markets are especially active around major statements, trade announcements and shifts in cross-strait tension.

33 active markets
Taiwan
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
chance
Yes No
$22K Volume 31/12
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
12%
chance
Yes No
$11K Volume 31/12
Best Chinese AI Company end of July?Best Chinese AI Company end of July?
AlibabaAlibaba95%YesNo
DeepSeekDeepSeek2%YesNo
$4.6K Volume 31/07
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?
4.6-4.9%73%YesNo
4.3-4.6%25%YesNo
$2.3K Volume 7 days left
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
chance
Yes No
$22K Volume 31/12
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
94%
chance
Yes No
$409.1K Volume 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
chance
Yes No
$22K Volume 30/09
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
5%
chance
Yes No
$935 Volume 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
9%
chance
Yes No
$22K Volume 30/06
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?
December 3125%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
$56.2K Volume 31/12
China ballistic missile launch by December 31? China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
17%
chance
Yes No
$1K Volume 31/12
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
13%
chance
Yes No
$4.6K Volume 31/12
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
3%
chance
Yes No
$1M Volume 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by July 31? US x China tariff agreement by July 31?
6%
chance
Yes No
$239 Volume 31/07
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes No
$860.6K Volume 31/12
Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?
Dong Jun8%YesNo
Li Xi6%YesNo
$183.9K Volume 31/12
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
2%
chance
Yes No
$103.4K Volume 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
88%
chance
Yes No
$239 Volume 31/12
China Annual Inflation 2026China Annual Inflation 2026
0.6 – 1.0%52%YesNo
1.1 – 1.5%15%YesNo
$49.8K Volume 10/01
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026? US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
22%
chance
Yes No
$1.9K Volume 31/12
China x India military clash by...?China x India military clash by...?
June 3050%YesNo
December 3150%YesNo
$302.9K Volume Ends today
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
5%
chance
Yes No
$9 Volume 31/12
Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026? Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
73%
chance
Yes No
$6.6K Volume 31/12
People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?
No Change86%YesNo
Decrease15%YesNo
$1 Volume 30/09
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?
3%
chance
Yes No
$104.3K Volume 31/12
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...?
June 301%
December 315%
$135.1K Volume 31/12
Jimmy Lai released by...?Jimmy Lai released by...?
December 31, 20264%
June 30, 20261%
$369.2K Volume 31/12
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
13%
chance
Yes No
$143.2K Volume 31/12
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?Tariff increase on Canada in effect by...?
December 31, 202628%
June 30, 20262%
$44.3K Volume 31/12
US x China Military clash before 2027? US x China Military clash before 2027?
5%
chance
Yes No
$144K Volume 31/12
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ?
2%
chance
Yes No
$48.7K Volume 31/12
China coup attempt before 2027? China coup attempt before 2027?
2%
chance
Yes No
$146K Volume 31/12
Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...?Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...?
December 3192%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
$37.9K Volume 31/12
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China Markets FAQ

What China markets exist on Polymarket?

Taiwan and cross-strait scenarios, trade and tariff decisions, foreign policy events, and economic indicators. Binary and multi-outcome contracts.

What moves China market prices?

Official statements, trade announcements, military and diplomatic developments and major news reports. Prices react within minutes to significant developments.

Can I trade China markets from anywhere?

Yes, through Polymarket's Polygon account. Track live China markets on our site and open an account through our referral link.

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