Trump Prediction Markets

Trump prediction markets are among Polymarket's most active - tenure, legal proceedings, foreign policy (Ukraine, China, Middle East), domestic policy, and general approval. Volumes exceed hundreds of millions of dollars.

These markets react strongly to every major statement - via Truth Social, interviews, or White House announcements. Real-time news coverage creates trading opportunities.

41 active markets
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Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
17%
chance
Yes No
$9.8M Volume 01/01
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
August 22August 2299%YesNo
August 25August 2599%YesNo
$2.6M Volume 30/09
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3173%YesNo
October 3153%YesNo
$19.3M Volume 01/01
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
March 31, 202765%YesNo
December 31, 202652%YesNo
$106.3K Volume 01/04
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
17%
chance
Yes No
$87.6K Volume 31/12
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes No
$83.7K Volume 31/12
Russia nuclear test by...?Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 20266%YesNo
September 30, 2026September 30, 20261%YesNo
$6.2M Volume 01/01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 3017%YesNo
September 159%YesNo
$671.2K Volume 01/10
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
chance
Yes No
$40.6K Volume 31/08
Fed Decision in October?Fed Decision in October?
No change72%YesNo
25 bps increase25%YesNo
$1.6M Volume 28/10
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 314%
August 314%
$274.2K Volume 01/09
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
14%
chance
Yes No
$22.1K Volume 31/12
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3125%YesNo
October 3115%YesNo
$5.9M Volume 01/01
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3074%YesNo
Switzerland10%YesNo
$19K Volume 30/09
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
September 3044%YesNo
August 3113%YesNo
$911.1K Volume 01/10
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf42%YesNo
Jared KushnerJared Kushner39%YesNo
$17.8K Volume 31/12
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3151%YesNo
ChinaChina46%YesNo
$16.1K Volume 31/12
Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?Who will Trump pick as the next Press Secretary?
Scott JenningsScott Jennings25%YesNo
Anna KellyAnna Kelly17%YesNo
$149.2K Volume 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
chance
Yes No
$40.6K Volume 31/12
Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
AlibabaAlibaba22%YesNo
CATLCATL19%YesNo
$186.9K Volume 30/06
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
August 2495%YesNo
August 2692%YesNo
$10K Volume 01/09
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman77%YesNo
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin47%YesNo
$11.5K Volume 31/12
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts August 18 - August 25, 2026?
200+87%YesNo
180-19913%YesNo
$11.1K Volume 2 days left
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
chance
Yes No
$7.6K Volume 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro86%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%YesNo
$95.8M Volume 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
87%
chance
Yes No
$6.2K Volume 31/12
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
December 3197%YesNo
October 3196%YesNo
$738.9K Volume 31/12
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31?
30+7%YesNo
40+2%YesNo
$5.6K Volume 31/08
Fed Decision in December?Fed Decision in December?
No change61%YesNo
25 bps increase29%YesNo
$1.6M Volume 09/12
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4727%YesNo
4914%YesNo
$2.9M Volume 03/11
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?
August 31, 20261%
December 31, 202610%
$4K Volume 01/01
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
6%
chance
Yes No
$260.1K Volume 31/12
What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)What will Trump say this week? (August 24 - August 30)
God90%YesNo
Ballroom85%YesNo
$5.4K Volume 7 days left
Fed Decision in January?Fed Decision in January?
No change61%YesNo
25 bps increase22%YesNo
$1.6M Volume 27/01
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
Mahmoud Khalil29%YesNo
John Brennan18%YesNo
$389K Volume
How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?How many House seats will the Democrats win in Texas?
1023%YesNo
1220%YesNo
$10.4K Volume 03/11
What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole?
Productivity77%YesNo
Good Morning76%YesNo
$45.5K Volume 5 days left
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 316%YesNo
September 302%YesNo
$29.1M Volume 01/01
US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
77%
chance
Yes No
$4.8K Volume Ends today
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Green New Scam60%YesNo
Garbage54%YesNo
$2.7K Volume 31/08
What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?What will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing?
Illegal / Illegals70%YesNo
Iran 5+ times63%YesNo
$2.6K Volume 31/08
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Trump Markets FAQ

Which Trump markets are live now?

Annual approval, specific policy outcomes, legal proceedings, international negotiation outcomes, and senior-appointment decisions.

What moves prices?

Trump statements (especially Truth Social), official White House announcements, court rulings, and Congressional action. Reactions are very fast.

How do I manage risk in Trump markets?

High volatility - build positions gradually, avoid over-concentration in a single market, and check order-book depth before entering.

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