Trump Prediction Markets

Trump prediction markets are among Polymarket's most active — tenure, legal proceedings, foreign policy (Ukraine, China, Middle East), domestic policy, and general approval. Volumes exceed hundreds of millions of dollars.

These markets react strongly to every major statement — via Truth Social, interviews, or White House announcements. Real-time news coverage creates trading opportunities.

50 active markets
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Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 1524%YesNo
July 3117%YesNo
$3.7M Volume 31/07
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
16%
chance
Yes No
$309.4K Volume 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
July 3146%YesNo
July 1712%YesNo
$269.9K Volume 31/07
US announces blockade on Iran by...?US announces blockade on Iran by...?
December 3148%YesNo
August 3138%YesNo
$1.5M Volume 31/12
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3130%YesNo
July 3115%YesNo
$314.9K Volume 31/07
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
chance
Yes No
$59.4K Volume 31/12
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
9%
chance
Yes No
$126.6K Volume 31/12
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
Switzerland27%YesNo
Pakistan19%YesNo
$40.9K Volume 30/09
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro79%YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez15%YesNo
$93.3M Volume 31/12
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
IrelandIreland86%YesNo
GermanyGermany58%YesNo
$32.2K Volume 31/12
Trump out as President by July 31? Trump out as President by July 31?
1%
chance
Yes No
$35.2K Volume 31/07
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+96%YesNo
40+62%YesNo
$26.8K Volume 31/07
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
7%
chance
Yes No
$23.4K Volume 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3114%YesNo
October 319%YesNo
$17.2M Volume 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3141%YesNo
October 3125%YesNo
$5.4M Volume 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
12%
chance
Yes No
$1.5M Volume 31/12
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31, 202550%YesNo
December 3117%YesNo
$2.9M Volume 31/12
Who will Trump speak to in July?Who will Trump speak to in July?
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz95%YesNo
Mark CarneyMark Carney92%YesNo
$8.7K Volume 31/07
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...? Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
July 3152%YesNo
July 1536%YesNo
$8.3K Volume Ends today
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 3134%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$2M Volume Ends today
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 3112%YesNo
September 305%YesNo
$28.4M Volume 31/12
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
December 3115%YesNo
July 312%YesNo
$613.5K Volume Ends today
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3122%YesNo
October 3113%YesNo
$773K Volume 31/12
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
1%
chance
Yes No
$6.8K Volume 31/07
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
December 313%YesNo
August 311%YesNo
$6.2M Volume 31/12
Kash Patel out by...?Kash Patel out by...?
December 3140%YesNo
July 314%YesNo
$1.5M Volume
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202788%YesNo
USUS3%YesNo
$6.3K Volume 31/12
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
July 3123%YesNo
April 301%YesNo
$6.3M Volume Ends today
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
45%
chance
Yes No
$1.6M Volume 01/01
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 3134%YesNo
July 313%YesNo
$2.8M Volume 31/12
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?
91%
chance
Yes No
$239.4K Volume 20/07
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 3 - July 10, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 3 - July 10, 2026?
200+99%YesNo
180-1991%YesNo
$8.4K Volume Ends today
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
7%
chance
Yes No
$10.4M Volume 31/12
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2%
chance
Yes No
$4.3K Volume 31/12
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
23%
chance
Yes No
$7.7K Volume 31/12
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
63%
chance
Yes No
$42.4K Volume 20/07
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
8%
chance
Yes No
$35.2K Volume 31/12
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
July 1194%YesNo
July 2894%YesNo
$3.8K Volume 31/07
Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?
Zohran MamdaniZohran Mamdani41%YesNo
Keir StarmerKeir Starmer39%YesNo
$3.8K Volume 31/07
Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
Delcy Rodríguez86%YesNo
No Head of State4%YesNo
$244.7K Volume 31/12
Fed Decision in October?Fed Decision in October?
No change71%YesNo
25 bps increase15%YesNo
$2.5M Volume 28/10
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
2%
chance
Yes No
$7.7K Volume 31/07
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4723%YesNo
4917%YesNo
$2.7M Volume 03/11
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time33%YesNo
60+30%YesNo
$618.6K Volume 31/12
How many World Cup matches will Trump attend?How many World Cup matches will Trump attend?
190%YesNo
07%YesNo
$69.2K Volume 20/07
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 7 - July 14, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 7 - July 14, 2026?
200+33%YesNo
120-13929%YesNo
$8.4K Volume 5 days left
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman74%YesNo
Delcy RodríguezDelcy Rodríguez34%YesNo
$3.9K Volume 31/12
Trump goes to space in 2026? Trump goes to space in 2026?
2%
chance
Yes No
$39.6K Volume 31/12
Who will Trump meet with in July?Who will Trump meet with in July?
Joseph AounJoseph Aoun95%YesNo
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu52%YesNo
$3.9K Volume 31/07
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
93%
chance
Yes No
$409.1K Volume 31/12
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Trump Markets FAQ

Which Trump markets are live now?

Annual approval, specific policy outcomes, legal proceedings, international negotiation outcomes, and senior-appointment decisions.

What moves prices?

Trump statements (especially Truth Social), official White House announcements, court rulings, and Congressional action. Reactions are very fast.

How do I manage risk in Trump markets?

High volatility — build positions gradually, avoid over-concentration in a single market, and check order-book depth before entering.

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