Polymarket France Prediction Markets

Polymarket markets on France cover the main storylines in French politics: the presidential race, snap elections and dissolution, who is named Prime Minister, approval ratings and economic direction. Prices form in real time from order-book depth.

These markets pick up around key dates - election nights, confidence votes and government announcements. Traded volume reflects international interest in French politics.

23 active markets
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Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen27%YesNo
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe27%YesNo
$110.7M Volume 30/04
Highest temperature in Paris on July 9?Highest temperature in Paris on July 9?
33°C99%YesNo
31°C or below1%YesNo
$125K Volume Ends today
Highest temperature in Paris on July 10?Highest temperature in Paris on July 10?
35°C44%YesNo
36°C26%YesNo
$125K Volume Ends today
Next President of New CaledoniaNext President of New Caledonia
Milakulo TukumuliMilakulo Tukumuli78%YesNo
Sonia BackèsSonia Backès5%YesNo
$39.9K Volume 30/06
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled62%YesNo
Marine TondelierMarine Tondelier21%YesNo
$128.2K Volume 11/10
Highest temperature in Paris on July 11?Highest temperature in Paris on July 11?
36°C41%YesNo
37°C28%YesNo
$125K Volume 2 days left
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 10?Lowest temperature in Paris on July 10?
20°C43%YesNo
21°C37%YesNo
$27.1K Volume Ends today
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 11?Lowest temperature in Paris on July 11?
22°C33%YesNo
21°C32%YesNo
$27.1K Volume 2 days left
Next President of the National Rally in 2026?Next President of the National Rally in 2026?
Jordan BardellaJordan Bardella93%YesNo
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen4%YesNo
$4K Volume 25/10
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?
Raphaël Glucksmann87%YesNo
Éric Zemmour85%YesNo
$47.5K Volume 23/04
2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate2027 French Presidential Election: National Rally Candidate
Marine Le Pen93%YesNo
Jordan Bardella3%YesNo
$217.7K Volume 23/04
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen80%YesNo
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe41%YesNo
$44.8K Volume 30/04
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%YesNo
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud89%YesNo
$194K Volume 17/04
Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by...?Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by...?
December 3122%YesNo
March 3120%YesNo
$1.9K Volume 31/03
Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...?Marine Le Pen out as Member of the National Assembly by...?
July 311%
October 312%
$2.3K Volume 31/10
National Rally forms a French Senate Group in 2026? National Rally forms a French Senate Group in 2026?
88%
chance
Yes No
$2.1K Volume 31/12
Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election? Le Pen ankle monitor before French Presidential Election?
39%
chance
Yes No
$667 Volume 17/04
Will France pass a national budget by December 31? Will France pass a national budget by December 31?
41%
chance
Yes No
$6.5K Volume 31/12
Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?
December 31, 202615%
April 17, 202720%
$59 Volume 17/04
Macron out by...?Macron out by...?
December 31, 2025December 31, 202550%YesNo
October 31, 2025October 31, 202550%YesNo
$2.1M Volume Ends today
Lecornu out as French PM by...?Lecornu out as French PM by...?
December 31, 202622%YesNo
July 31, 20261%YesNo
$329.2K Volume 31/12
French election called by...?French election called by...?
September 1550%YesNo
October 31, 202550%YesNo
$1.1M Volume Ends today
Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate? Will Gérard Larcher be reelected as President of the French Senate?
89%
chance
Yes No
$6.3K Volume 27/09
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France Markets FAQ

Which France markets exist on Polymarket?

Presidential race, snap elections and dissolution, next Prime Minister, approval ratings and economic decisions. Both binary and multi-outcome contracts.

What moves prices in France markets?

Polls, political statements, parliamentary votes and economic news. Prices react within minutes to major developments.

How are the odds set?

Prices come from real orders in the book, not a house line, so each price reflects the market's live consensus.

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