Mercati di previsione politici

I mercati politici sono tra i più profondi di Polymarket: elezioni USA (presidente, Congresso), Israele, Regno Unito, Germania, Francia e Brasile. Anche crisi di governo, voti di sfiducia, impeachment e nomine di gabinetto.

I sondaggi sono solo uno dei tanti input: i mercati di previsione aggregano sondaggi, conoscenza degli elettori, dati social e previsioni degli esperti in un unico prezzo. Spesso più accurato di qualsiasi singolo sondaggio.

150 mercati attivi
Ordina
No changeNo change68%No
25 bps increase25 bps increase33%No
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone99%No
Trey GowdyTrey Gowdy1%No
December 3176%No
October 3162%No
August 25August 2599%No
August 31August 3196%No
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%No
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro35%No
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance47%No
Marco RubioMarco Rubio19%No
220-23931%No
240-25924%No
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%No
Jon OssoffJon Ossoff15%No
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)72%No
New People (NL)New People (NL)22%No
65-8971%No
40-6423%No
March 31, 202768%No
December 31, 202653%No
JD VanceJD Vance23%No
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%No
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen33%No
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe25%No
December 314%No
September 302%No
August 311%
August 151%
220-23916%No
200-21915%No
June 30, 202714%No
December 31, 20268%No
August 3191%No
August 2891%No
No Meeting by September 3075%No
Pakistan11%No
Gadi EizenkotGadi Eizenkot55%No
Benjamin NetanyahuBenjamin Netanyahu28%No
December 3118%No
October 3111%No
ChinaChina48%No
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3146%No
December 31December 3154%No
October 31October 3117%No
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson90%No
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson10%No
Graham Nordone 5–10%Graham Nordone 5–10%67%No
Graham Nordone <5%Graham Nordone <5%19%No
June 30, 202754%No
March 31, 202744%No
200-21916%No
220-23916%No
June 30, 202725%No
December 3116%No
Nicolás Maduro86%No
Delcy Rodríguez10%No
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding16%No
Dilution of Iran's UraniumDilution of Iran's Uranium14%No
September 307%No
August 312%No
Democrats Sweep49%No
R Senate, D House38%No
December 316%No
September 302%No
920-95933%No
960-99923%No
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)99%No
New People (NL)New People (NL)1%No
Mojtaba Khamenei82%No
No Head of State4%No
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202665%No
December11%No
Somaliland16%No
Arabia Saudita9%No
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya9%No
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy5%No
325–33933%No
340–35425%No
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)50%No
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)49%No
Mission93%No
Flag89%No
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone98%No
Ralph NormanRalph Norman2%No
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro88%No
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva8%No
December 3152%No
September 306%No
Steve WitkoffSteve Witkoff43%No
Mohammad Bagher GhalibafMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf42%No
July 314%
August 315%
Marina SilvaMarina Silva31%No
Simone TebetSimone Tebet25%No
180-19956%No
200+42%No
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202794%No
SvizzeraSvizzera3%No
Flavio BolsonaroFlavio Bolsonaro61%No
Ronaldo CaiadoRonaldo Caiado32%No
Ashley Moody (R)Ashley Moody (R)92%No
Angie Nixon (D)Angie Nixon (D)9%No
December 3153%No
September 3014%No
Sergio Moro76%No
Alexandre Curi9%No
Iliana IotovaIliana Iotova75%No
Аndrey GyurovАndrey Gyurov21%No
December 3197%No
October 3196%No
FufucaFufuca27%No
Weverton RochaWeverton Rocha26%No
Scott JenningsScott Jennings26%No
Lara TrumpLara Trump19%No
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)85%No
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)9%No
8-11%46%No
<8%36%No
LuizianneLuizianne28%No
Cid GomesCid Gomes24%No
Umaru Dikko RaddaUmaru Dikko Radda88%No
Garba Yakubu LadoGarba Yakubu Lado11%No
September 3059%No
September 1155%No
Stephen LynchStephen Lynch59%No
Patrick RoathPatrick Roath43%No
1000+35%No
960-99910%No
Renan SantosRenan Santos51%No
Ronaldo CaiadoRonaldo Caiado42%No
June 263%No
August 312%No
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro42%No
Carol de ToniCarol de Toni29%No
200+93%No
180-1996%No
40-6440%No
65-8933%No
Jaques WagnerJaques Wagner54%No
Rui CostaRui Costa17%No
Republican Party96%No
Democratic Party4%No
200+83%No
180-19916%No
PQPQ72%No
CAQCAQ17%No
December 3150%No
May 311%No
Carlos BolsonaroCarlos Bolsonaro36%No
Esperidião AminEsperidião Amin32%No
RepublicanRepublican87%No
DemocratDemocrat14%No
Mahmoud Khalil30%No
John Brennan18%No
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%No
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)1%No
July 311%
September 307%
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party88%No
Republican PartyRepublican Party13%No
Rayssa FurlanRayssa Furlan80%No
Lucas BarretoLucas Barreto5%No
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva97%No
Flavio BolsonaroFlavio Bolsonaro92%No
Flavio BolsonaroFlavio Bolsonaro74%No
LulaLula24%No
Monique TaylorMonique Taylor42%No
Wieslawa DerlatkaWieslawa Derlatka39%No
Robert FranklinRobert Franklin91%No
James TaylorJames Taylor13%No
Robert FranklinRobert Franklin92%No
James TaylorJames Taylor13%No
5-7%46%No
3-5%43%No
Marina JHCMarina JHC36%No
RenanRenan27%No
Teresa SuritaTeresa Surita60%No
Helio BolsonaroHelio Bolsonaro34%No
Omar AzizOmar Aziz58%No
Roberto CidadeRoberto Cidade36%No
December 3196%No
September 3093%No
Baba WaliBaba Wali87%No
Abdullahi SharifAbdullahi Sharif8%No
FábioFábio77%No
Valmir de FrancisquinhoValmir de Francisquinho17%No
December 3198%No
August 316%No
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party50%No
Republican PartyRepublican Party50%No
Rui CostaRui Costa81%No
Jaques WagnerJaques Wagner19%No
Ulises Mejía HaroUlises Mejía Haro39%No
Verónica Díaz RoblesVerónica Díaz Robles15%No
Janaina RivaJanaina Riva60%No
Mauro MendesMauro Mendes21%No
Over26%
Under74%
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%No
Nathalie ArthaudNathalie Arthaud89%No
31%+39%No
25-28%27%No
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman76%No
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin53%No
Manuela D'ÁvilaManuela D'Ávila46%No
Marcel Van HattemMarcel Van Hattem33%No
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen85%No
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon47%No
Kyriakos MitsotakisKyriakos Mitsotakis79%No
Alexis TsiprasAlexis Tsipras8%No
Friedrich MerzFriedrich Merz47%No
Elon MuskElon Musk44%No
Jerônimo RodriguesJerônimo Rodrigues53%No
ACM NetoACM Neto46%No
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra95%No
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton5%No
Bernadette WilsonBernadette Wilson36%No
Jonathan Kreiss-TomkinsJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins31%No
Eduardo PaesEduardo Paes95%No
Douglas RuasDouglas Ruas5%No
Anders ÖbergAnders Öberg90%No
Linda FrohmLinda Frohm6%No
Eduardo BraideEduardo Braide73%No
Orleans BrandãoOrleans Brandão29%No
Benedita da SilvaBenedita da Silva60%No
Carlos JordyCarlos Jordy30%No
December 3134%No
September 3010%No
Princess FakuPrincess Faku55%No
Simphiwe DzengwaSimphiwe Dzengwa15%No
Productivity78%No
Framework72%No
Ahsanul HafizAhsanul Hafiz52%No
Fatima ShabanFatima Shaban47%No
Guilherme DerriteGuilherme Derrite51%No
Simone TebetSimone Tebet25%No
RNIRNI39%No
PIPI34%No
Rebeca GrynspanRebeca Grynspan38%No
Carolyn Rodrigues-BirkettCarolyn Rodrigues-Birkett21%No
Rosa María Bayardo CabreraRosa María Bayardo Cabrera76%No
Riult Rivera GutiérrezRiult Rivera Gutiérrez6%No
Otu Bassey EdetOtu Bassey Edet87%No
Arthur JarvisArthur Jarvis8%No

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FAQ sui mercati politici

I mercati di previsione sono più accurati dei sondaggi?

Spesso sì. Aggregano informazioni diverse (sondaggi, conoscenza interna, analisi) in un unico prezzo. Non sono però perfetti: trattali come uno strumento chiave, non l'unico.

Quali elezioni sono coperte su Polymarket?

Presidenziali e congressuali USA, governi europei e asiatici, corse locali chiave, primarie di partito. Ogni grande democrazia riceve una copertura significativa.

Come faccio trading sulle elezioni in modo intelligente?

Segui i sondaggi standard ma evita i mercati con poca liquidità. La copertura attorno ai dibattiti o alle interviste importanti può ridurre il rischio sulle posizioni concentrate.

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