If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for NATO article 5 before 2027?
Yes is priced at 5% and No at 95%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for NATO article 5 before 2027?
Traders currently imply a 5% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the NATO article 5 before 2027 market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 31 Dec 2026 (129 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on NATO article 5 before 2027?
Total traded volume on this market is $47, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade NATO article 5 before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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