If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Past
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for NATO article 5 before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 7%, while No trades at 94%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for NATO article 5 before 2027?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 7% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the NATO article 5 before 2027 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (174 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on NATO article 5 before 2027?
Total turnover stands at $14. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade NATO article 5 before 2027 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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