Pasar Prediksi Politik

Pasar politik adalah salah satu yang terdalam di Polymarket: pemilihan AS (presiden, Kongres), Israel, Inggris, Jerman, Prancis, dan Brasil. Juga krisis pemerintahan, suara tidak percaya, pemakzulan, dan penunjukan kabinet.

Polling adalah salah satu input di antara banyak; pasar prediksi menggabungkan polling, pengetahuan pemilih, data sosial, dan ramalan ahli menjadi satu harga. Seringkali lebih akurat daripada polling tunggal mana pun.

150 pasar aktif
Pemilu Trump AS-Tiongkok Perang Ukraina Putin United States United Kingdom France Russia Brazil China
Urutkan
Keputusan Fed pada September?Keputusan Fed pada September?
25 bps increase25 bps increase60%YaTidak
No changeNo change39%YaTidak
$1,8 jt Volume 16/09
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 202661%YaTidak
December 3150%YaTidak
$3 jt Volume 31/12
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 311%
$817,3 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance20%YaTidak
Marco RubioMarco Rubio13%YaTidak
$674,9 jt Volume 07/11
Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?
Zohran MamdaniZohran Mamdani74%YaTidak
Marjorie Taylor GreeneMarjorie Taylor Greene48%YaTidak
$610,2 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202731%YaTidak
December 3122%YaTidak
$21,8 jt Volume 31/12
Brazil Presidential ElectionBrazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva65%YaTidak
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro24%YaTidak
$117,1 jt Volume 04/10
Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 28 Juli - 4 Agustus, 2026?Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 28 Juli - 4 Agustus, 2026?
260-27923%YaTidak
240-25922%YaTidak
$1,7 jt Volume 4 hari tersisa
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
24%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$346,5 rb Volume 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3133%YaTidak
August 1527%YaTidak
$25,7 jt Volume Berakhir hari ini
Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 30 Juli - 1 Agustus, 2026?Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 30 Juli - 1 Agustus, 2026?
65-8964%YaTidak
90-11421%YaTidak
$269,7 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom19%YaTidak
Jon OssoffJon Ossoff14%YaTidak
$1,2 miliar Volume 07/11
Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 31 Juli - 7 Agustus, 2026?Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 31 Juli - 7 Agustus, 2026?
220-23916%YaTidak
240-25916%YaTidak
$1,7 jt Volume 7 hari tersisa
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3121%YaTidak
September 3016%YaTidak
$9 jt Volume Berakhir hari ini
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
25%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$3,6 jt Volume 01/01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$527,9 rb Volume 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3187%YaTidak
October 3180%YaTidak
$2,1 jt Volume 31/08
Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage98%YaTidak
Count BinfaceCount Binface2%YaTidak
$3,2 jt Volume 13/08
Partai mana yang akan memenangkan Senat pada 2026?Partai mana yang akan memenangkan Senat pada 2026?
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%YaTidak
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%YaTidak
$3,5 jt Volume 03/11
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
September 3053%YaTidak
August 3132%YaTidak
$97,2 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202715%YaTidak
December 31, 20269%YaTidak
$92,3 rb Volume 30/06
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 1513%YaTidak
July 311%YaTidak
$8,7 jt Volume Berakhir hari ini
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep45%YaTidak
R Senate, D House43%YaTidak
$9,1 jt Volume 03/11
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)62%YaTidak
New People (NL)New People (NL)32%YaTidak
$16,5 jt Volume 20/09
Akankah rezim Iran jatuh sebelum 2027? Akankah rezim Iran jatuh sebelum 2027?
9%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$111,7 rb Volume 31/12
Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 30 September? Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 30 September?
16%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$527,9 rb Volume 30/09
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 3155%YaTidak
July 315%YaTidak
$2,9 jt Volume 31/12
MI-13 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Donavan McKinneyDonavan McKinney84%YaTidak
Shri ThanedarShri Thanedar17%YaTidak
$214,6 rb Volume 4 hari tersisa
Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen30%YaTidak
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe26%YaTidak
$116,9 jt Volume 30/04
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202694%YaTidak
September 30, 202687%YaTidak
$8,6 jt Volume Berakhir hari ini
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone60%YaTidak
Ralph NormanRalph Norman31%YaTidak
$576,1 rb Volume 11/08
Akankah Netanyahu lengser sebelum...?Akankah Netanyahu lengser sebelum...?
December 3141%YaTidak
July 311%YaTidak
$50,7 rb Volume 31/12
Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 31 Desember? Akankah lalu lintas di Selat Hormuz kembali normal sebelum 31 Desember?
50%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$527,9 rb Volume 31/12
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance43%YaTidak
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%YaTidak
$682,1 jt Volume 07/11
Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 1 Agustus - 3 Agustus, 2026?Jumlah tweet Elon Musk 1 Agustus - 3 Agustus, 2026?
40-6442%YaTidak
65-8932%YaTidak
$269,7 rb Volume 3 hari tersisa
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$106,8 rb Volume 30/09
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 316%YaTidak
September 302%YaTidak
$63,9 jt Volume 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3157%YaTidak
September 3025%YaTidak
$37,9 rb Volume 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$106,8 rb Volume 31/12
Jumlah tweet Elon Musk pada Juli 2026?Jumlah tweet Elon Musk pada Juli 2026?
880-91962%YaTidak
840-87933%YaTidak
$37 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed97%YaTidak
Haley StevensHaley Stevens3%YaTidak
$1,7 jt Volume 4 hari tersisa
Akankah rezim Iran jatuh sebelum 30 September? Akankah rezim Iran jatuh sebelum 30 September?
3%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$111,7 rb Volume 30/09
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%YaTidak
Delcy Rodríguez10%YaTidak
$94,8 jt Volume 31/12
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya10%YaTidak
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%YaTidak
$23 jt Volume 10/10
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%YaTidak
Benjamin Netanyahu35%YaTidak
$30,5 jt Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3099%YaTidak
February 28February 281%YaTidak
$1,1 jt Volume 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
15%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$106,8 rb Volume 31/12
What will happen before GTA VI?What will happen before GTA VI?
Another Pandemic51%YaTidak
New Rihanna Album51%YaTidak
$23,6 jt Volume Berakhir hari ini
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner
BNBN74%YaTidak
PHPH27%YaTidak
$129,5 rb Volume 2 hari tersisa
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202793%YaTidak
SwissSwiss3%YaTidak
$23,4 rb Volume 31/12
Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Mohammed bin Salman3%YaTidak
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf1%YaTidak
$2,1 jt Volume Berakhir hari ini
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3155%YaTidak
September 30September 3019%YaTidak
$1,1 jt Volume 31/12
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface79%YaTidak
William CloustonWilliam Clouston8%YaTidak
$338,7 rb Volume 13/08
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$42 rb Volume 31/12
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Wesley BellWesley Bell70%YaTidak
Cori BushCori Bush30%YaTidak
$236,2 rb Volume 4 hari tersisa
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202611%
June 30, 202732%
$27,1 rb Volume 30/06
CA-23 House Election WinnerCA-23 House Election Winner
Republican Party93%YaTidak
Democratic Party6%YaTidak
$58,2 rb Volume 03/11
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
44%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$857,5 rb Volume 20/08
Trump out as President by July 31? Trump out as President by July 31?
1%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$42 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3041%YaTidak
Swiss24%YaTidak
$16,4 rb Volume 30/09
Next Prime Minister of Spain?Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez FeijóoAlberto Núñez Feijóo80%YaTidak
Pedro SánchezPedro Sánchez9%YaTidak
$91,7 rb Volume 31/03
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
4%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$15,4 rb Volume 31/12
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3121%YaTidak
July 311%YaTidak
$1,3 jt Volume Berakhir hari ini
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Genesee County (Flint) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Genesee County (Flint) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed67%YaTidak
Haley StevensHaley Stevens34%YaTidak
$22,3 rb Volume 4 hari tersisa
Florida Governor Republican Primary WinnerFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron DonaldsByron Donalds97%YaTidak
James FishbackJames Fishback2%YaTidak
$2,2 jt Volume 18/08
Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
Joe BidenJoe Biden99%YaTidak
Barack ObamaBarack Obama95%YaTidak
$610,2 rb Volume 31/08
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
92%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$586,5 rb Volume 31/12
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
1%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$14,2 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
California Governor Election WinnerCalifornia Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra93%YaTidak
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton6%YaTidak
$40,5 jt Volume 03/11
Akankah Macron lengser sebelum...?Akankah Macron lengser sebelum...?
December 31, 2026December 31, 202614%YaTidak
July 31, 2026July 31, 20261%YaTidak
$2,1 jt Volume Berakhir hari ini
VA-02 House Election WinnerVA-02 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party84%YaTidak
Republican PartyRepublican Party16%YaTidak
$16,2 rb Volume 04/11
Argentina Presidential Election WinnerArgentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier MileiJavier Milei54%YaTidak
Axel KicillofAxel Kicillof41%YaTidak
$402,1 rb Volume 24/10
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary WinnerMinnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike LindellMike Lindell73%YaTidak
Lisa DemuthLisa Demuth25%YaTidak
$490,6 rb Volume 11/08
What will Marco Rubio say on Fox News: My View?What will Marco Rubio say on Fox News: My View?
Iran / Iranian99%YaTidak
Venezuela / Maduro77%YaTidak
$12,5 rb Volume 2 hari tersisa
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County Winner
Haley StevensHaley Stevens55%YaTidak
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed44%YaTidak
$55 rb Volume 4 hari tersisa
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
9%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$12,3 rb Volume 31/12
South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Second PlaceSouth Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Second Place
Ralph NormanRalph Norman51%YaTidak
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone31%YaTidak
$12,7 rb Volume 11/08
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Thom Tillis82%YaTidak
Jerry Moran56%YaTidak
$15,5 rb Volume 01/01
Israeli Legislative Election WinnerIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
LikudLikud63%YaTidak
YasharYashar30%YaTidak
$197,2 rb Volume 27/10
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%YaTidak
No Head of State9%YaTidak
$37,4 jt Volume 31/12
Michigan Governor Republican Primary WinnerMichigan Governor Republican Primary Winner
John JamesJohn James94%YaTidak
Perry JohnsonPerry Johnson6%YaTidak
$168,4 rb Volume 4 hari tersisa
Who will be arrested before 2027?Who will be arrested before 2027?
John Brennan30%YaTidak
Mahmoud Khalil25%YaTidak
$262 rb Volume
Vancouver Mayoral Election WinnerVancouver Mayoral Election Winner
Pete FryPete Fry25%YaTidak
Ken SimKen Sim24%YaTidak
$158,2 rb Volume 17/10
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake99%YaTidak
2–6s3%YaTidak
$11,1 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 3110%YaTidak
September 305%YaTidak
$29 jt Volume 31/12
Who will Trump meet with in July?Who will Trump meet with in July?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman4%YaTidak
Kim Jong UnKim Jong Un1%YaTidak
$12,7 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro79%YaTidak
Renan SantosRenan Santos9%YaTidak
$4,4 jt Volume 04/10
MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of VictoryMO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Bell 4–8%39%YaTidak
Bell <4%22%YaTidak
$13,3 rb Volume 5 hari tersisa
FL-22 House Election WinnerFL-22 House Election Winner
Republican Party58%YaTidak
Democratic Party41%YaTidak
$34,8 rb Volume 03/11
MN-06 House Election WinnerMN-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party83%YaTidak
Democratic Party16%YaTidak
$32,3 rb Volume 03/11
TX-24 House Election WinnerTX-24 House Election Winner
Republican Party84%YaTidak
Democratic Party15%YaTidak
$55,9 rb Volume 03/11
Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31? Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?
99%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$26,4 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
2026 Fulton County Commission Chair Election Winner2026 Fulton County Commission Chair Election Winner
Mo Ivory97%YaTidak
Eric J. Tatum2%YaTidak
$16,8 rb Volume 03/11
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
33%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$963,9 rb Volume 03/01
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
↑ 4.25%34%YaTidak
↑ 4.5%9%YaTidak
$1,7 jt Volume 31/12
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
DemocraticDemocratic60%YaTidak
RepublicanRepublican41%YaTidak
$1,9 jt Volume 07/11
FL-26 House Election WinnerFL-26 House Election Winner
Republican Party85%YaTidak
Democratic Party15%YaTidak
$51 rb Volume 03/11
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%YaTidak
October 3116%YaTidak
$244,3 rb Volume 31/12
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
98%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$144,5 rb Volume 15/08
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
June 30, 202744%YaTidak
December 3112%YaTidak
$3,2 jt Volume 31/12
María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...?
December 3149%YaTidak
September 3025%YaTidak
$6,4 jt Volume Berakhir hari ini
Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican Primary WinnerWisconsin Secretary of State Republican Primary Winner
Nate Pollnow83%YaTidak
Jay Schroeder11%YaTidak
$19,5 rb Volume 11/08
Georgia Senate Election WinnerGeorgia Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat90%YaTidak
RepublicanRepublican10%YaTidak
$90,1 rb Volume 03/11
Kansas Governor Republican Primary WinnerKansas Governor Republican Primary Winner
Ty MastersonTy Masterson84%YaTidak
Philip SarneckiPhilip Sarnecki14%YaTidak
$100,5 rb Volume 4 hari tersisa
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
None before 202743%YaTidak
Netanyahu - Israel PM26%YaTidak
$8,3 rb Volume 31/12
NC-07 House Election WinnerNC-07 House Election Winner
Republican Party81%YaTidak
Democratic Party16%YaTidak
$26,5 rb Volume 03/11
NATO dissolves before 2027? NATO dissolves before 2027?
3%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$122,1 rb Volume 31/12
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31? Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?
17%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$8 rb Volume 31/08
TX-21 House Election WinnerTX-21 House Election Winner
Republican Party87%YaTidak
Democratic Party13%YaTidak
$57,6 rb Volume 03/11
Minas Gerais Governor Election WinnerMinas Gerais Governor Election Winner
Cleitinho AzevedoCleitinho Azevedo42%YaTidak
Mateus SimõesMateus Simões24%YaTidak
$143,9 rb Volume 04/10
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202651%YaTidak
December14%YaTidak
$167,7 rb Volume 31/12
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)52%YaTidak
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)50%YaTidak
$630,8 rb Volume 03/11
TX-06 House Election WinnerTX-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party91%YaTidak
Democratic Party8%YaTidak
$35,4 rb Volume 03/11
MI-03 House Election WinnerMI-03 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%YaTidak
Republican PartyRepublican Party10%YaTidak
$8,8 rb Volume 04/11
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?
1%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$10,8 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
MD-04 House Election WinnerMD-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party97%YaTidak
Republican Party2%YaTidak
$45,1 rb Volume 03/11
TX-26 House Election WinnerTX-26 House Election Winner
Republican Party88%YaTidak
Democratic Party10%YaTidak
$24 rb Volume 03/11
AK-AL House Election WinnerAK-AL House Election Winner
Republican Party83%YaTidak
Democratic Party16%YaTidak
$25,5 rb Volume 03/11
Alaska Governor Election Winner Alaska Governor Election Winner
Tom BegichTom Begich29%YaTidak
Bernadette WilsonBernadette Wilson29%YaTidak
$1,1 jt Volume 03/11
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3172%YaTidak
ChinaChina15%YaTidak
$7,3 rb Volume 31/12
What will Trump say in August?What will Trump say in August?
Midterm97%YaTidak
Affordable / Affordability96%YaTidak
$8,1 rb Volume 31/08
PA-07 House Election WinnerPA-07 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party77%YaTidak
Republican PartyRepublican Party24%YaTidak
$12,2 rb Volume 04/11
OH-06 House Election WinnerOH-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%YaTidak
Democratic Party6%YaTidak
$59,9 rb Volume 03/11
VA-04 House Election WinnerVA-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party93%YaTidak
Republican Party6%YaTidak
$24,6 rb Volume 03/11
RI-02 House Election WinnerRI-02 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%YaTidak
Republican Party6%YaTidak
$22,2 rb Volume 03/11
SC-03 House Election WinnerSC-03 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%YaTidak
Democratic Party6%YaTidak
$43,2 rb Volume 03/11
Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 28 - August 4, 2026?Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 28 - August 4, 2026?
120-13926%YaTidak
100-11919%YaTidak
$12 rb Volume 4 hari tersisa
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?
July 199%YaTidak
July 299%YaTidak
$7,5 rb Volume Berakhir hari ini
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface 10–20%35%YaTidak
Binface 20–30%29%YaTidak
$182,2 rb Volume 13/08
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
4%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$11,7 jt Volume 31/12
Zambia Presidential Election WinnerZambia Presidential Election Winner
Hakainde HichilemaHakainde Hichilema88%YaTidak
Brian MundubileBrian Mundubile12%YaTidak
$124,3 rb Volume 14/08
VA-09 Democratic Primary WinnerVA-09 Democratic Primary Winner
Joy PowersJoy Powers61%YaTidak
Adam MurphyAdam Murphy35%YaTidak
$8,8 rb Volume 5 hari tersisa
Partai mana yang akan memenangkan Dewan Perwakilan pada 2026?Partai mana yang akan memenangkan Dewan Perwakilan pada 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%YaTidak
Republican PartyRepublican Party14%YaTidak
$6,1 rb Volume 03/11
How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?
2–369%YaTidak
4–533%YaTidak
$15,2 rb Volume 5 hari tersisa
MI-10 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Christina HinesChristina Hines90%YaTidak
Eric ChungEric Chung6%YaTidak
$72,6 rb Volume 4 hari tersisa
Trump out as President by August 31? Trump out as President by August 31?
1%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$42 rb Volume 31/08
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
10%
peluang
Ya Tidak
$5,8 rb Volume 31/12
CA-25 House Election WinnerCA-25 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%YaTidak
Republican Party6%YaTidak
$16,7 rb Volume 03/11
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of VictoryMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
El-Sayed 15–20%33%YaTidak
El-Sayed 10–15%28%YaTidak
$59,7 rb Volume 4 hari tersisa
SC-01 House Election WinnerSC-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party69%YaTidak
Democratic Party31%YaTidak
$51,1 rb Volume 03/11
How many of these Sanders endorsees will win their August 4 Primaries (Michigan and Missouri)?How many of these Sanders endorsees will win their August 4 Primaries (Michigan and Missouri)?
363%YaTidak
431%YaTidak
$33,3 rb Volume 5 hari tersisa
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 319%YaTidak
August 312%YaTidak
$882,1 rb Volume 31/12
NY-08 House Election WinnerNY-08 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%YaTidak
Republican Party5%YaTidak
$32,5 rb Volume 03/11
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed79%YaTidak
Haley StevensHaley Stevens21%YaTidak
$41,9 rb Volume 4 hari tersisa
Kansas Governor Democratic Primary WinnerKansas Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Cindy HolscherCindy Holscher93%YaTidak
Ethan CorsonEthan Corson8%YaTidak
$84,3 rb Volume 4 hari tersisa
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)97%YaTidak
New People (NL)New People (NL)1%YaTidak
$2,9 jt Volume 20/09
Texas Governor Election WinnerTexas Governor Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican87%YaTidak
DemocratDemocrat13%YaTidak
$37,4 rb Volume 03/11
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 311%
August 3134%
$105,7 rb Volume 31/08
Novgorod Oblast Parliament Election: Party WinnerNovgorod Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
United RussiaUnited Russia99%YaTidak
Communists of RussiaCommunists of Russia1%YaTidak
$6,4 rb Volume 20/09
Next President of Estonia?Next President of Estonia?
Ülle MadiseÜlle Madise62%YaTidak
Jonatan VseviovJonatan Vseviov15%YaTidak
$5,3 rb Volume 02/09
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FAQ Pasar Politik

Apakah pasar prediksi lebih akurat daripada polling?

Seringkali, ya. Mereka menggabungkan informasi yang beragam (polling, pengetahuan dalam, analisis) menjadi satu harga. Tidak sempurna; anggap mereka sebagai alat kunci, bukan satu-satunya.

Pemilihan apa yang dicakup di Polymarket?

Pemilihan presiden dan kongres AS, pemerintah Eropa dan Asia, perlombaan lokal kunci, pemilihan pendahuluan partai. Setiap demokrasi besar mendapatkan cakupan yang berarti.

Bagaimana cara berdagang pemilihan dengan cerdas?

Ikuti polling standar tetapi hindari pasar dengan likuiditas tipis. Melindungi posisi menjelang debat atau wawancara besar dapat mengurangi risiko pada posisi yang terkonsentrasi.

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