Polymarket United Kingdom Prediction Markets

Polymarket United Kingdom markets track the central questions in British politics: the next general election, who becomes Prime Minister, party leadership contests, by-elections and Bank of England rate moves. Prices are set in real time by order-book depth.

Activity spikes around key dates - polling day, leadership ballots and major economic announcements. The traded volume mirrors international interest in UK politics.

29 active markets
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Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage90%YesNo
Count BinfaceCount Binface8%YesNo
$1.1M Volume 30/06
Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?Next UK Chancellor of the Exchequer in 2026?
Ed MilibandEd Miliband63%YesNo
Yvette CooperYvette Cooper9%YesNo
$720.7K Volume 31/12
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface70%YesNo
Nigel FarageNigel Farage8%YesNo
$23.5K Volume 30/06
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election WinnerGreater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev CraigBev Craig94%YesNo
Sian AstleySian Astley4%YesNo
$246K Volume 30/07
How many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?How many UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
284%YesNo
313%YesNo
$64.3K Volume 31/12
Next UK Culture Secretary in 2026?Next UK Culture Secretary in 2026?
No next Culture Secretary in 202610%YesNo
Wes StreetingWes Streeting6%YesNo
$23.9K Volume 31/12
Candidates in next Labour leadership election?Candidates in next Labour leadership election?
Andy Burnham99%YesNo
Wes Streeting1%YesNo
$141.4K Volume 31/12
Next UK Home Secretary in 2026?Next UK Home Secretary in 2026?
No next Home Secretary in 2026No next Home Secretary in 202692%YesNo
Yvette CooperYvette Cooper8%YesNo
$38.4K Volume 31/12
Next UK Defence Secretary in 2026?Next UK Defence Secretary in 2026?
No next Defence Secretary in 202643%YesNo
John HealeyJohn Healey42%YesNo
$17.3K Volume 31/12
Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Farage 70–80%33%YesNo
Farage 80%+31%YesNo
$8.7K Volume 30/06
Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner By-Election WinnerNorfolk Police and Crime Commissioner By-Election Winner
Colin SuttonColin Sutton71%YesNo
Matthew TaylorMatthew Taylor13%YesNo
$18.3K Volume 16/07
Next UK Foreign Secretary in 2026?Next UK Foreign Secretary in 2026?
No next Foreign Secretary in 2026No next Foreign Secretary in 202635%YesNo
Wes StreetingWes Streeting32%YesNo
$164.7K Volume 31/12
How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?
645%YesNo
716%YesNo
$4.2K Volume 31/12
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026? Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader in 2026?
23%
chance
Yes No
$209.8K Volume 31/12
Starmer officially leaves office by…?Starmer officially leaves office by…?
July 3199%YesNo
July 173%YesNo
$102.5K Volume 31/07
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface <10%34%YesNo
Binface 20–30%22%YesNo
$3.5K Volume 30/06
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference VotesGreater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes
Bev CraigBev Craig87%YesNo
Sian AstleySian Astley12%YesNo
$48.8K Volume 30/07
Who will be in the Burnham cabinet?Who will be in the Burnham cabinet?
Shabana MahmoodShabana Mahmood97%YesNo
Ed MilibandEd Miliband97%YesNo
$31.7K Volume 31/12
Bank of England decision in September?Bank of England decision in September?
No change78%YesNo
25 bps increase16%YesNo
$2.5K Volume 17/09
Next UK Prime Minister appointed by…?Next UK Prime Minister appointed by…?
September 3099%YesNo
July 3198%YesNo
$74.9K Volume 30/09
Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton? Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?
90%
chance
Yes No
$4K Volume 30/06
UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?
0.4–0.5%49%YesNo
0.0–0.1%37%YesNo
$15.6K Volume 12/08
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
0-1%50%YesNo
1-2%38%YesNo
$40.5K Volume 12/02
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of VictoryGreater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory
Bev Craig 5–10%36%YesNo
Bev Craig 10–15%24%YesNo
$1.7K Volume 30/07
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest?
98%
chance
Yes No
$23.4K Volume 31/12
Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027? Will Trump announce an acquisition of part of the Chagos Islands before 2027?
52%
chance
Yes No
$33 Volume
UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026? UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?
5%
chance
Yes No
$7.3K Volume 31/12
UK Recession in 2026? UK Recession in 2026?
19%
chance
Yes No
$6.4K Volume 31/03
Next UK Transport Secretary in 2026?Next UK Transport Secretary in 2026?
Louise HaighLouise Haigh46%YesNo
Anneliese MidgleyAnneliese Midgley46%YesNo
$0 Volume 31/12
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UK Markets FAQ

Which UK markets exist on Polymarket?

Next general election timing and winner, next Prime Minister, party leadership races, by-elections and Bank of England rate decisions. Both binary and multi-outcome contracts.

What moves prices in UK markets?

Opinion polls, leadership announcements, government votes and economic news. Prices react within minutes to significant developments.

How are the odds set?

Prices come from real orders in the book, not a bookmaker. Each contract's price reflects the market's live estimate of that outcome.

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