Mercati di previsione geopolitici

I mercati di previsione geopolitici prezzano le più grandi lotte per il potere del mondo: guerre, scontri militari, sanzioni, negoziati di pace e accordi internazionali, come probabilità live che si aggiornano a ogni notizia.

Su Polymarket questi mercati hanno spesso una liquidità profonda attorno a eventi in rapida evoluzione e durano settimane o mesi. Polymarkets segue i prezzi e le quote reali dei conflitti attivi e dei cambi di potere nel mondo, così puoi leggere la visione della folla in tempo reale, confrontare gli scenari ed esercitarti senza rischi in modalità allenamento prima di fare trading su Polymarket.

105 mercati attivi
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%SìNo
No Head of State7%SìNo
$37,1 Mln Volume 31/12
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3155%SìNo
August 1446%SìNo
$8,1 Mln Volume 31/08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
26%
probabilità
Sì No
$1,6 Mln Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2799%SìNo
July 2899%SìNo
$11,5 Mln Volume 31/08
Il traffico nello lo stretto di Hormuz tornerà normale entro il 31 luglio? Il traffico nello lo stretto di Hormuz tornerà normale entro il 31 luglio?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$1,3 Mln Volume Termina oggi
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 3174%
$673.066 Volume Termina oggi
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%SìNo
September 308%SìNo
$68,4 Mln Volume Termina oggi
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3130%SìNo
September 3011%SìNo
$11,9 Mln Volume 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$1,3 Mln Volume 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3185%SìNo
October 3179%SìNo
$1,9 Mln Volume 31/08
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3126%SìNo
October 3118%SìNo
$3,4 Mln Volume 31/12
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 3136%SìNo
July 272%SìNo
$2,6 Mln Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202726%SìNo
December 3122%SìNo
$21,3 Mln Volume 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3131%SìNo
August 1517%SìNo
$25,4 Mln Volume Termina oggi
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%SìNo
September 305%SìNo
$29 Mln Volume 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%SìNo
August 1519%SìNo
$101.965 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3123%SìNo
September 3019%SìNo
$8,7 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Il traffico nello lo stretto di Hormuz tornerà normale entro il 31 dicembre? Il traffico nello lo stretto di Hormuz tornerà normale entro il 31 dicembre?
52%
probabilità
Sì No
$1,3 Mln Volume 31/12
Il traffico nello lo stretto di Hormuz tornerà normale entro il 30 settembre? Il traffico nello lo stretto di Hormuz tornerà normale entro il 30 settembre?
19%
probabilità
Sì No
$1,3 Mln Volume 30/09
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+2%SìNo
40+1%SìNo
$68.257 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$213.058 Volume 30/09
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31December 3113%SìNo
September 30September 305%SìNo
$67.133 Volume 31/12
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202716%SìNo
December 31, 20269%SìNo
$62.883 Volume 30/06
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
December 3123%SìNo
September 309%SìNo
$334.774 Volume 31/12
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 316%SìNo
March 311%SìNo
$57.893 Volume 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 157%SìNo
July 311%SìNo
$8,5 Mln Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 3097%
December 3198%
$91.484 Volume 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%SìNo
Benjamin Netanyahu34%SìNo
$30,4 Mln Volume 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%SìNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%SìNo
$94,8 Mln Volume 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
91%
probabilità
Sì No
$46.843 Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202692%SìNo
September 30, 202687%SìNo
$8,6 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3037%SìNo
Svizzera25%SìNo
$36.957 Volume 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
probabilità
Sì No
$53.398 Volume 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$202.270 Volume 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3112%SìNo
September 305%SìNo
$8,2 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$630.586 Volume 31/08
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$1,1 Mln Volume 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%SìNo
October 3117%SìNo
$5,8 Mln Volume 31/12
Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027? Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027?
9%
probabilità
Sì No
$36.913 Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3150%SìNo
September 30September 3019%SìNo
$1 Mln Volume 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%SìNo
October 316%SìNo
$17,6 Mln Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%SìNo
April 301%SìNo
$12,2 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner79%SìNo
Mark RutteMark Rutte76%SìNo
$19.973 Volume 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia74%SìNo
Druzkhivka38%SìNo
$19.494 Volume 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake97%SìNo
2–6s6%SìNo
$18.670 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%SìNo
July 312%SìNo
$1,3 Mln Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$18.241 Volume 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
probabilità
Sì No
$53.398 Volume 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3123%SìNo
September 3012%SìNo
$6,1 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya11%SìNo
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%SìNo
$23 Mln Volume 10/10
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%SìNo
November 3050%SìNo
$2,1 Mln Volume 31/12
L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 dicembre? L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 dicembre?
26%
probabilità
Sì No
$19.434 Volume 31/12
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$219.172 Volume 31/08
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
10%
probabilità
Sì No
$364.191 Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3078%SìNo
February 28February 281%SìNo
$1,1 Mln Volume 30/09
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Modi out by December 31, 2026?
6%
probabilità
Sì No
$12.587 Volume 31/12
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 settembre? Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 settembre?
3%
probabilità
Sì No
$36.913 Volume 30/09
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$17.422 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Massimo storico di petrolio WTI entro ___?Massimo storico di petrolio WTI entro ___?
December 3115%SìNo
September 306%SìNo
$2,2 Mln Volume 31/12
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$11.240 Volume 31/12
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?
July 317%
August 3119%
$33.870 Volume 31/08
Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?
July 3190%
August 3195%
$11.894 Volume 31/08
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3129%SìNo
January 31January 311%SìNo
$7,1 Mln Volume 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
15%
probabilità
Sì No
$1,6 Mln Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3189%SìNo
September 3088%SìNo
$233.151 Volume 31/12
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
July 2755%SìNo
July 2944%SìNo
$16.888 Volume Termina oggi
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
53%
probabilità
Sì No
$836.615 Volume 20/08
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202649%SìNo
December13%SìNo
$159.715 Volume 31/12
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3165%SìNo
October 3156%SìNo
$1,4 Mln Volume 31/08
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 1746%SìNo
August 1846%SìNo
$16.888 Volume 31/08
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%SìNo
October 3114%SìNo
$235.298 Volume 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Stati Uniti1%SìNo
Italy1%SìNo
$8.167 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?
December 3114%
June 301%
$8.158 Volume 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
18%
probabilità
Sì No
$7.869 Volume 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%SìNo
December 31, 20263%SìNo
$1,4 Mln Volume 31/12
Quante navi attraverseranno lo lo stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 27 luglio?Quante navi attraverseranno lo lo stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 27 luglio?
50-7443%SìNo
75-9919%SìNo
$9.143 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 3125%SìNo
June 301%SìNo
$2,1 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
2%
probabilità
Sì No
$7.312 Volume 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3145%SìNo
September 3039%SìNo
$7.215 Volume 31/12
Netanyahu fuori dalla carica entro...?Netanyahu fuori dalla carica entro...?
December 3140%SìNo
July 311%SìNo
$6.828 Volume 31/12
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%SìNo
July 311%SìNo
$10 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
probabilità
Sì No
$10,5 Mln Volume 31/12
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3110%SìNo
July 311%SìNo
$474.721 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?
September 3035%
December 3166%
$47.598 Volume 31/12
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding30%SìNo
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)29%SìNo
$406.476 Volume 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
71%
probabilità
Sì No
$17.422 Volume 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%SìNo
June 301%SìNo
$21,7 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 3110%
June 301%
$3,5 Mln Volume 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
60+44%SìNo
No prison time34%SìNo
$657.350 Volume 31/12
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 3137%SìNo
July 315%SìNo
$187.873 Volume 31/08
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3162%SìNo
August 1530%SìNo
$4.833 Volume 31/08
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?
December 31December 3140%SìNo
September 30September 305%SìNo
$4.687 Volume Termina oggi
L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 luglio? L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 luglio?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$19.434 Volume Termina oggi
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
July 312%SìNo
July 141%SìNo
$134.425 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3131%SìNo
August 317%SìNo
$952.522 Volume
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
14%
probabilità
Sì No
$20.358 Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3155%
$57.406 Volume 31/12
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-2098%SìNo
40-601%SìNo
$3.943 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
July 2823%SìNo
August 122%SìNo
$3.930 Volume 31/08
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3110%SìNo
August 312%SìNo
$875.875 Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31? Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$28.604 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$3.441 Volume 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 312%
August 3129%
$100.195 Volume 31/08
Who will Trump speak to in July?Who will Trump speak to in July?
Emmanuel MacronEmmanuel Macron33%SìNo
Lula da SilvaLula da Silva30%SìNo
$3.171 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman68%SìNo
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin31%SìNo
$3.672 Volume 31/12
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FAQ sui mercati geopolitici

Cosa coprono i mercati geopolitici?
Guerre e scontri militari, cessate il fuoco e negoziati di pace, sanzioni, accordi internazionali, elezioni con poste globali e più ampi cambi di potere tra grandi paesi, ciascuno come mercato sì/no o a esiti multipli con una probabilità live.
Come funzionano le quote?
Ogni esito viene scambiato tra 1¢ e 99¢; il prezzo è la probabilità implicita del mercato. I prezzi si muovono in tempo reale mentre i trader reagiscono alle notizie, quindi riflettono il consenso attuale più che una previsione fissa.
Posso seguirli o testarli senza rischi?
Sì. La modalità allenamento gratuita di Polymarkets ti permette di fare trading simulato su qualsiasi mercato con prezzi live e 1.000 $ di denaro di pratica, nessuna carta e nessun rischio, prima di passare a Polymarket.
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