Geopolitik-Prognosemärkte

Geopolitik-Prognosemärkte bepreisen die größten Machtkämpfe der Welt - Kriege, militärische Zusammenstöße, Waffenruhen, Friedensverhandlungen und internationale Abkommen - als lebendige Wahrscheinlichkeiten, die sich mit jeder Schlagzeile ändern. Polymarkets verfolgt die echten Preise aktiver Konflikte und Machtverschiebungen weltweit und lässt dich im Trainingsmodus risikofrei üben, bevor du auf Polymarket handelst.

105 aktive Märkte
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%JaNein
No Head of State7%JaNein
$37,1 Mio. Vol 31/12
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3155%JaNein
August 1446%JaNein
$8,1 Mio. Vol 31/08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
26%
Chance
Ja Nein
$1,6 Mio. Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2799%JaNein
July 2899%JaNein
$11,5 Mio. Vol 31/08
Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 31 Juli? Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 31 Juli?
1%
Chance
Ja Nein
$1,3 Mio. Vol Endet heute
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 3174%
$673,1 Tsd. Vol Endet heute
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%JaNein
September 308%JaNein
$68,4 Mio. Vol Endet heute
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3130%JaNein
September 3011%JaNein
$11,9 Mio. Vol 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$1,3 Mio. Vol 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3185%JaNein
October 3179%JaNein
$1,9 Mio. Vol 31/08
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3126%JaNein
October 3118%JaNein
$3,4 Mio. Vol 31/12
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 3136%JaNein
July 272%JaNein
$2,6 Mio. Vol 2 Tage verbleibend
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202726%JaNein
December 3122%JaNein
$21,3 Mio. Vol 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3131%JaNein
August 1517%JaNein
$25,4 Mio. Vol Endet heute
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%JaNein
September 305%JaNein
$29 Mio. Vol 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%JaNein
August 1519%JaNein
$102 Tsd. Vol 2 Tage verbleibend
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3123%JaNein
September 3019%JaNein
$8,7 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 31 Dezember? Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 31 Dezember?
52%
Chance
Ja Nein
$1,3 Mio. Vol 31/12
Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 30 September? Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 30 September?
19%
Chance
Ja Nein
$1,3 Mio. Vol 30/09
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+2%JaNein
40+1%JaNein
$68,3 Tsd. Vol 2 Tage verbleibend
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$213,1 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31December 3113%JaNein
September 30September 305%JaNein
$67,1 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202716%JaNein
December 31, 20269%JaNein
$62,9 Tsd. Vol 30/06
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
December 3123%JaNein
September 309%JaNein
$334,8 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 316%JaNein
March 311%JaNein
$57,9 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 157%JaNein
July 311%JaNein
$8,5 Mio. Vol 2 Tage verbleibend
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 3097%
December 3198%
$91,5 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%JaNein
Benjamin Netanyahu34%JaNein
$30,4 Mio. Vol 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%JaNein
Delcy Rodríguez10%JaNein
$94,8 Mio. Vol 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
91%
Chance
Ja Nein
$46,8 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202692%JaNein
September 30, 202687%JaNein
$8,6 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3037%JaNein
Schweiz25%JaNein
$37 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
Chance
Ja Nein
$53,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
Chance
Ja Nein
$202,3 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3112%JaNein
September 305%JaNein
$8,2 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$630,6 Tsd. Vol 31/08
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
8%
Chance
Ja Nein
$1,1 Mio. Vol 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%JaNein
October 3117%JaNein
$5,8 Mio. Vol 31/12
Fällt das iranische Regime vor 2027? Fällt das iranische Regime vor 2027?
9%
Chance
Ja Nein
$36,9 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3150%JaNein
September 30September 3019%JaNein
$1 Mio. Vol 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%JaNein
October 316%JaNein
$17,6 Mio. Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%JaNein
April 301%JaNein
$12,2 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner79%JaNein
Mark RutteMark Rutte76%JaNein
$20 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia74%JaNein
Druzkhivka38%JaNein
$19,5 Tsd. Vol 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake97%JaNein
2–6s6%JaNein
$18,7 Tsd. Vol 2 Tage verbleibend
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%JaNein
July 312%JaNein
$1,3 Mio. Vol 2 Tage verbleibend
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
Chance
Ja Nein
$18,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
Chance
Ja Nein
$53,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3123%JaNein
September 3012%JaNein
$6,1 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya11%JaNein
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%JaNein
$23 Mio. Vol 10/10
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%JaNein
November 3050%JaNein
$2,1 Mio. Vol 31/12
Stimmt Iran bis 31 Dezember dem Stopp der Urananreicherung zu? Stimmt Iran bis 31 Dezember dem Stopp der Urananreicherung zu?
26%
Chance
Ja Nein
$19,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$219,2 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
10%
Chance
Ja Nein
$364,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3078%JaNein
February 28February 281%JaNein
$1,1 Mio. Vol 30/09
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Modi out by December 31, 2026?
6%
Chance
Ja Nein
$12,6 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Fällt das iranische Regime bis 30 September? Fällt das iranische Regime bis 30 September?
3%
Chance
Ja Nein
$36,9 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$17,4 Tsd. Vol 2 Tage verbleibend
Allzeithoch von WTI-Rohöl bis ___?Allzeithoch von WTI-Rohöl bis ___?
December 3115%JaNein
September 306%JaNein
$2,2 Mio. Vol 31/12
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
8%
Chance
Ja Nein
$11,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?
July 317%
August 3119%
$33,9 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?
July 3190%
August 3195%
$11,9 Tsd. Vol 31/08
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3129%JaNein
January 31January 311%JaNein
$7,1 Mio. Vol 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
15%
Chance
Ja Nein
$1,6 Mio. Vol 31/12
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3189%JaNein
September 3088%JaNein
$233,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
July 2755%JaNein
July 2944%JaNein
$16,9 Tsd. Vol Endet heute
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
53%
Chance
Ja Nein
$836,6 Tsd. Vol 20/08
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202649%JaNein
December13%JaNein
$159,7 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3165%JaNein
October 3156%JaNein
$1,4 Mio. Vol 31/08
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 1746%JaNein
August 1846%JaNein
$16,9 Tsd. Vol 31/08
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%JaNein
October 3114%JaNein
$235,3 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Vereinigte Staaten1%JaNein
Italy1%JaNein
$8,2 Tsd. Vol 2 Tage verbleibend
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?
December 3114%
June 301%
$8,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
18%
Chance
Ja Nein
$7,9 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%JaNein
December 31, 20263%JaNein
$1,4 Mio. Vol 31/12
Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Straße von Hormus in der Woche vom 27 Juli?Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Straße von Hormus in der Woche vom 27 Juli?
50-7443%JaNein
75-9919%JaNein
$9,1 Tsd. Vol 4 Tage verbleibend
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 3125%JaNein
June 301%JaNein
$2,1 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
2%
Chance
Ja Nein
$7,3 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3145%JaNein
September 3039%JaNein
$7,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Netanyahu bis... aus dem Amt?Netanyahu bis... aus dem Amt?
December 3140%JaNein
July 311%JaNein
$6,8 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%JaNein
July 311%JaNein
$10 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
Chance
Ja Nein
$10,5 Mio. Vol 31/12
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3110%JaNein
July 311%JaNein
$474,7 Tsd. Vol 2 Tage verbleibend
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?
September 3035%
December 3166%
$47,6 Tsd. Vol 31/12
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding30%JaNein
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)29%JaNein
$406,5 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
71%
Chance
Ja Nein
$17,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%JaNein
June 301%JaNein
$21,7 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 3110%
June 301%
$3,5 Mio. Vol 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
60+44%JaNein
No prison time34%JaNein
$657,3 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 3137%JaNein
July 315%JaNein
$187,9 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3162%JaNein
August 1530%JaNein
$4,8 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?
December 31December 3140%JaNein
September 30September 305%JaNein
$4,7 Tsd. Vol Endet heute
Stimmt Iran bis 31 Juli dem Stopp der Urananreicherung zu? Stimmt Iran bis 31 Juli dem Stopp der Urananreicherung zu?
1%
Chance
Ja Nein
$19,4 Tsd. Vol Endet heute
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
July 312%JaNein
July 141%JaNein
$134,4 Tsd. Vol 2 Tage verbleibend
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3131%JaNein
August 317%JaNein
$952,5 Tsd. Vol
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
14%
Chance
Ja Nein
$20,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3155%
$57,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-2098%JaNein
40-601%JaNein
$3,9 Tsd. Vol 2 Tage verbleibend
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
July 2823%JaNein
August 122%JaNein
$3,9 Tsd. Vol 31/08
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3110%JaNein
August 312%JaNein
$875,9 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31? Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?
1%
Chance
Ja Nein
$28,6 Tsd. Vol 2 Tage verbleibend
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?
1%
Chance
Ja Nein
$3,4 Tsd. Vol 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 312%
August 3129%
$100,2 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Who will Trump speak to in July?Who will Trump speak to in July?
Emmanuel MacronEmmanuel Macron33%JaNein
Lula da SilvaLula da Silva30%JaNein
$3,2 Tsd. Vol 2 Tage verbleibend
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman68%JaNein
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin31%JaNein
$3,7 Tsd. Vol 31/12
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