This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
July 24
$174 Volume
41%
July 25
$436 Volume
17%
July 26
$519 Volume
41%
July 27
$424 Volume
33%
July 28
$460 Volume
55%
July 29
$288 Volume
13%
July 30
$200 Volume
11%
July 31
$398 Volume
13%
August 1
$288 Volume
10%
August 2
$268 Volume
13%
August 3
$422 Volume
8%
August 4
$264 Volume
15%
August 5
$208 Volume
10%
August 6
$467 Volume
10%
August 7
$52 Volume
7%
August 8
$144 Volume
16%
August 9
$327 Volume
8%
August 10
$257 Volume
12%
August 11
$336 Volume
24%
August 12
$242 Volume
14%
August 13
$80 Volume
11%
August 14
$159 Volume
11%
August 15
$158 Volume
10%
August 16
$377 Volume
24%
August 17
$8 Volume
7%
August 18
$218 Volume
19%
August 19
$48 Volume
8%
August 20
$218 Volume
15%
August 21
$8 Volume
8%
August 22
$8 Volume
8%
August 23
$65 Volume
10%
August 24
$148 Volume
10%
August 25
$288 Volume
45%
August 26
$182 Volume
12%
August 27
$146 Volume
9%
August 28
$44 Volume
10%
August 29
$648 Volume
9%
August 30
$38 Volume
8%
August 31
$132 Volume
8%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Houthis successfully target shipping on?
The field is wide open: July 28 tops it at just 38%, with August 25 close behind at 30%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Houthis successfully target shipping on?
Right now the market's best guess is July 28 at 38% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Houthis successfully target shipping on market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Aug 2026 (40 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Houthis successfully target shipping on?
Total turnover stands at $9.1K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Houthis successfully target shipping on on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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