🌍 予測市場：地政学

105 アクティブなマーケット

Geopolitics prediction markets — wars, international deals and global power shifts

Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%はいいいえ
No Head of State7%はいいいえ
$3,709.7万 取引高 31/12
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3155%はいいいえ
August 1446%はいいいえ
$806.5万 取引高 31/08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
26%
確率
はい いいえ
$160.3万 取引高 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2799%はいいいえ
July 2899%はいいいえ
$1,146.5万 取引高 31/08
7月31日までにホルムズ海峡の通航は正常化する？ 7月31日までにホルムズ海峡の通航は正常化する？
1%
確率
はい いいえ
$134.2万 取引高 本日終了
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 3174%
$67.3万 取引高 本日終了
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%はいいいえ
September 308%はいいいえ
$6,836.2万 取引高 本日終了
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3130%はいいいえ
September 3011%はいいいえ
$1,187.5万 取引高 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$134.2万 取引高 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3185%はいいいえ
October 3179%はいいいえ
$190.7万 取引高 31/08
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3126%はいいいえ
October 3118%はいいいえ
$341.2万 取引高 31/12
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 3136%はいいいえ
July 272%はいいいえ
$264.6万 取引高 残り2日
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202726%はいいいえ
December 3122%はいいいえ
$2,132.4万 取引高 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3131%はいいいえ
August 1517%はいいいえ
$2,537.5万 取引高 本日終了
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%はいいいえ
September 305%はいいいえ
$2,896万 取引高 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%はいいいえ
August 1519%はいいいえ
$10.2万 取引高 残り2日
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3123%はいいいえ
September 3019%はいいいえ
$873.9万 取引高 本日終了
12月31日までにホルムズ海峡の通航は正常化する？ 12月31日までにホルムズ海峡の通航は正常化する？
52%
確率
はい いいえ
$134.2万 取引高 31/12
9月30日までにホルムズ海峡の通航は正常化する？ 9月30日までにホルムズ海峡の通航は正常化する？
19%
確率
はい いいえ
$134.2万 取引高 30/09
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+2%はいいいえ
40+1%はいいいえ
$6.8万 取引高 残り2日
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$21.3万 取引高 30/09
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31December 3113%はいいいえ
September 30September 305%はいいいえ
$6.7万 取引高 31/12
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202716%はいいいえ
December 31, 20269%はいいいえ
$6.3万 取引高 30/06
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
December 3123%はいいいえ
September 309%はいいいえ
$33.5万 取引高 31/12
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 316%はいいいえ
March 311%はいいいえ
$5.8万 取引高 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 157%はいいいえ
July 311%はいいいえ
$854.8万 取引高 残り2日
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 3097%
December 3198%
$9.1万 取引高 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%はいいいえ
Benjamin Netanyahu34%はいいいえ
$3,036.1万 取引高 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%はいいいえ
Delcy Rodríguez10%はいいいえ
$9,476.4万 取引高 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
91%
確率
はい いいえ
$4.7万 取引高 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202692%はいいいえ
September 30, 202687%はいいいえ
$855.7万 取引高 本日終了
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3037%はいいいえ
スイス25%はいいいえ
$3.7万 取引高 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
確率
はい いいえ
$5.3万 取引高 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
確率
はい いいえ
$20.2万 取引高 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3112%はいいいえ
September 305%はいいいえ
$819.2万 取引高 本日終了
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$63.1万 取引高 31/08
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
8%
確率
はい いいえ
$111.9万 取引高 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%はいいいえ
October 3117%はいいいえ
$575.5万 取引高 31/12
イラン政権は2027年までに崩壊する？ イラン政権は2027年までに崩壊する？
9%
確率
はい いいえ
$3.7万 取引高 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3150%はいいいえ
September 30September 3019%はいいいえ
$103.2万 取引高 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%はいいいえ
October 316%はいいいえ
$1,760.1万 取引高 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%はいいいえ
April 301%はいいいえ
$1,216.9万 取引高 本日終了
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner79%はいいいえ
Mark RutteMark Rutte76%はいいいえ
$2万 取引高 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia74%はいいいえ
Druzkhivka38%はいいいえ
$1.9万 取引高 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake97%はいいいえ
2–6s6%はいいいえ
$1.9万 取引高 残り2日
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%はいいいえ
July 312%はいいいえ
$130.2万 取引高 残り2日
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
確率
はい いいえ
$1.8万 取引高 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
確率
はい いいえ
$5.3万 取引高 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3123%はいいいえ
September 3012%はいいいえ
$611.1万 取引高 本日終了
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya11%はいいいえ
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%はいいいえ
$2,301万 取引高 10/10
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%はいいいえ
November 3050%はいいいえ
$211.8万 取引高 31/12
イランは12月31日までにウラン濃縮停止に合意する？ イランは12月31日までにウラン濃縮停止に合意する？
26%
確率
はい いいえ
$1.9万 取引高 31/12
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$21.9万 取引高 31/08
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
10%
確率
はい いいえ
$36.4万 取引高 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3078%はいいいえ
February 28February 281%はいいいえ
$107.3万 取引高 30/09
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Modi out by December 31, 2026?
6%
確率
はい いいえ
$1.3万 取引高 31/12
イラン政権は9月30日までに崩壊する？ イラン政権は9月30日までに崩壊する？
3%
確率
はい いいえ
$3.7万 取引高 30/09
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$1.7万 取引高 残り2日
WTI原油は___までに史上最高値？WTI原油は___までに史上最高値？
December 3115%はいいいえ
September 306%はいいいえ
$217.4万 取引高 31/12
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
8%
確率
はい いいえ
$1.1万 取引高 31/12
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?
July 317%
August 3119%
$3.4万 取引高 31/08
Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?
July 3190%
August 3195%
$1.2万 取引高 31/08
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3129%はいいいえ
January 31January 311%はいいいえ
$708.5万 取引高 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
15%
確率
はい いいえ
$157.1万 取引高 31/12
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3189%はいいいえ
September 3088%はいいいえ
$23.3万 取引高 31/12
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
July 2755%はいいいえ
July 2944%はいいいえ
$1.7万 取引高 本日終了
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
53%
確率
はい いいえ
$83.7万 取引高 20/08
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202649%はいいいえ
December13%はいいいえ
$16万 取引高 31/12
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3165%はいいいえ
October 3156%はいいいえ
$140.4万 取引高 31/08
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 1746%はいいいえ
August 1846%はいいいえ
$1.7万 取引高 31/08
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%はいいいえ
October 3114%はいいいえ
$23.5万 取引高 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
アメリカ合衆国1%はいいいえ
Italy1%はいいいえ
$8,167 取引高 残り2日
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?
December 3114%
June 301%
$8,158 取引高 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
18%
確率
はい いいえ
$7,869 取引高 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%はいいいえ
December 31, 20263%はいいいえ
$139.4万 取引高 31/12
7月27日の週にホルムズ海峡を通過する船は何隻？7月27日の週にホルムズ海峡を通過する船は何隻？
50-7443%はいいいえ
75-9919%はいいいえ
$9,143 取引高 残り4日
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 3125%はいいいえ
June 301%はいいいえ
$209.5万 取引高 本日終了
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
2%
確率
はい いいえ
$7,312 取引高 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3145%はいいいえ
September 3039%はいいいえ
$7,215 取引高 31/12
Netanyahuは...までに退任する？Netanyahuは...までに退任する？
December 3140%はいいいえ
July 311%はいいいえ
$6,828 取引高 31/12
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%はいいいえ
July 311%はいいいえ
$998.5万 取引高 本日終了
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
確率
はい いいえ
$1,052.9万 取引高 31/12
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3110%はいいいえ
July 311%はいいいえ
$47.5万 取引高 残り2日
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?
September 3035%
December 3166%
$4.8万 取引高 31/12
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding30%はいいいえ
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)29%はいいいえ
$40.6万 取引高 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
71%
確率
はい いいえ
$1.7万 取引高 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%はいいいえ
June 301%はいいいえ
$2,169.9万 取引高 本日終了
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 3110%
June 301%
$349.2万 取引高 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
60+44%はいいいえ
No prison time34%はいいいえ
$65.7万 取引高 31/12
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 3137%はいいいえ
July 315%はいいいえ
$18.8万 取引高 31/08
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3162%はいいいえ
August 1530%はいいいえ
$4,833 取引高 31/08
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?
December 31December 3140%はいいいえ
September 30September 305%はいいいえ
$4,687 取引高 本日終了
イランは7月31日までにウラン濃縮停止に合意する？ イランは7月31日までにウラン濃縮停止に合意する？
1%
確率
はい いいえ
$1.9万 取引高 本日終了
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
July 312%はいいいえ
July 141%はいいいえ
$13.4万 取引高 残り2日
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3131%はいいいえ
August 317%はいいいえ
$95.3万 取引高
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
14%
確率
はい いいえ
$2万 取引高 31/12
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3155%
$5.7万 取引高 31/12
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-2098%はいいいえ
40-601%はいいいえ
$3,943 取引高 残り2日
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
July 2823%はいいいえ
August 122%はいいいえ
$3,930 取引高 31/08
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3110%はいいいえ
August 312%はいいいえ
$87.6万 取引高 31/12
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31? Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?
1%
確率
はい いいえ
$2.9万 取引高 残り2日
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?
1%
確率
はい いいえ
$3,441 取引高 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 312%
August 3129%
$10万 取引高 31/08
Who will Trump speak to in July?Who will Trump speak to in July?
Emmanuel MacronEmmanuel Macron33%はいいいえ
Lula da SilvaLula da Silva30%はいいいえ
$3,171 取引高 残り2日
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman68%はいいいえ
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin31%はいいいえ
$3,672 取引高 31/12
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