This market will resolve to "Yes" if police officers, security forces, or military personnel belonging to neither Israel nor a Palestinian entity begin an officially acknowledged police, military, peacekeeping, and/or security operation on the ground within Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The foreign personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.
Entering Israeli controlled buffer zones will not qualify.
Egyptian or other forces operating solely along the Egyptian/Gaza border will not qualify regardless of if they cross the border.
Foreign personnel carrying out individual special operations, diplomatic missions, or solely humanitarian operations will not qualify.
Qualifying deployments must involve active-duty personnel of at least one foreign state or international institution (e.g., the UN or multinational missions) who are officially sent to Gaza for an operational role (e.g., peacekeeping, convoy escort, detention, logistical support). To qualify, the deployment must occur within the specified timeframe; mere announcements will not suffice.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Past
August 31
$8 Volume
11%
September 30
27%
December 31
$5.4K Volume
36%
Resolved 3
March 31
$364.4K Volume
No
April 30
$184.9K Volume
No
June 30
$104.7K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Foreign intervention in Gaza by?
Even the leader is cheap - December 31 trades at 27%, September 30 at 20%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for Foreign intervention in Gaza by?
No strong consensus yet: December 31 tops the implied probabilities at just 27%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Foreign intervention in Gaza by market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (154 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Foreign intervention in Gaza by?
Total turnover stands at $2.6K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Foreign intervention in Gaza by on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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