Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.

Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.

An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.

If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.

If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market regarding Kharg Island's control indicates a current probability of just 0.1% that the island will no longer be under Iranian control by March 31, 2026. With a trading volume of $30.3 million, this market reflects investor skepticism about significant geopolitical changes in the region. Monitoring this market is crucial, as it highlights the potential implications for global oil supply and regional stability, given Kharg Island's strategic importance in Iran's oil exports.